--- title: "Lore case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lore ($1,030.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.48% from 31 items with odds, observed 87.61% over 348 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815305 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Lore](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815305) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Lore A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815305?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815305?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815305) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815305?window=all) Price · $1,030.00 Advertised RTP · 86.48% · EV $890.72 from 31 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.61% · 348 openings, odds method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 98.58% ±18.41 151 openings 30 days · 87.61% ±12.13 348 openings since tracking started · 87.61% ±12.13 348 openings 35.0% 89.0% 143.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815305?window=24h) | 18 | 88.98% ±53.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815305?window=7d) | 151 | 98.58% ±18.4 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815305) | 348 | 87.61% ±12.1 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/815305?window=all) | 348 | 87.61% ±12.1 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 348 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 649 | $10.4K | 1.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) | 1 in 633 | $10.1K | 1.8% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 552 | $8,859 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 493 | $7,888 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 481 | $7,676 | 1.8% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 119 | $6,569 | 6.2% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.03× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $3,772 | 6.2% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.79× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $2,423 | 6.2% | 7 | 7.9 | 0.89× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $2,335 | 6.2% | 8 | 8.2 | 0.98× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $2,210 | 6.2% | 4 | 8.7 | 0.46× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $1,939 | 4.9% | 6 | 7.9 | 0.76× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,466 | 4.9% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,456 | 4.9% | 10 | 10.5 | 0.95× | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $1,421 | 4.9% | 9 | 10.7 | 0.84× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $1,318 | 4.9% | 12 | 11.6 | 1.04× | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1,160 | 4.9% | 11 | 13.2 | 0.84× | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1,005 | 4.9% | 16 | 15.2 | 1.05× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $867 | 2.4% | 10 | 8.6 | 1.17× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $694 | 2.4% | 9 | 10.7 | 0.84× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $521 | 2.4% | 12 | 14.3 | 0.84× | | [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $507 | 2.4% | 18 | 14.7 | 1.23× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $495 | 2.4% | 11 | 15.0 | 0.73× | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $486 | 2.4% | 18 | 15.3 | 1.18× | | [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $475 | 2.4% | 20 | 15.6 | 1.28× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $449 | 2.4% | 21 | 16.6 | 1.27× | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $400 | 1.1% | 12 | 8.4 | 1.43× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $258 | 1.1% | 18 | 13.0 | 1.38× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $193 | 1.1% | 15 | 17.4 | 0.86× | | [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $141 | 1.1% | 28 | 23.8 | 1.18× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $130 | 1.1% | 21 | 26.0 | 0.81× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $98.35 | 1.1% | 31 | 33.3 | 0.93× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/815305`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) [kick.com/korcze](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kick.com%2Fkorcze) $1,030 $10.4K 10.10x 2026-11-09 23:34 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) [aimstarooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/aimstarooo) $1,030 $10.1K 9.81x 2026-11-09 22:50 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) [IG:Szymonekk17\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/IG%3ASzymonekk17_) $1,030 $10.1K 9.81x 2026-11-03 20:22 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) [ku](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ku) $1,030 $7,888 7.66x 2026-11-04 19:57 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) [aimstarooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/aimstarooo) $1,030 $7,676 7.45x 2026-11-09 22:57 UTC [★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $1,030 $7,676 7.45x 2026-11-03 00:15 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [andrzej terejko](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/andrzej%20terejko) $1,030 $6,569 6.38x 2026-11-10 21:39 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [andrzej terejko](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/andrzej%20terejko) $1,030 $6,569 6.38x 2026-11-07 02:47 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [ku](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ku) $1,030 $6,569 6.38x 2026-11-03 00:33 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) [cogu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cogu) $1,030 $3,772 3.66x 2026-11-10 22:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=815305) [★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1,030 $193 0.19x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [AWP | Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) [cogu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cogu) $1,030 $141 0.14x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $1,030 $507 0.49x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [cogu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cogu) $1,030 $193 0.19x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [★ Karambit | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $1,030 $507 0.49x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [cogu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cogu) $1,030 $130 0.13x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-field-tested) Hidden $1,030 $521 0.51x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) [cogu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cogu) $1,030 $258 0.25x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) Hidden $1,030 $486 0.47x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [cogu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cogu) $1,030 $193 0.19x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1,030 | 86.48% | 31 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 4.1% covert 61.9% extraordinary 11.2% epic 2.3% classified 13.2% restricted 7.4% best hit $10.4K (10.10x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.48 on average: an expected loss of $13.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt