---
title: "Pyka97 case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Pyka97 ($6.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.92% from 32 items with odds, observed 88.16% over 13.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850608
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Pyka97](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850608)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Pyka97

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850608?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850608?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850608) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850608?window=all)

Price · $6.50

Advertised RTP · 88.92% · EV $5.78 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.16% · 13.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.13% ±8.67 1,511 openings

7 days · 89.68% ±3.26 10.7K openings

30 days · 88.16% ±2.94 13.2K openings

since tracking started · 88.16% ±2.94 13.2K openings

78.0% 87.3% 96.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850608?window=24h) | 1,511 | 87.13% ±8.67 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850608?window=7d) | 10.7K | 89.68% ±3.26 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850608) | 13.2K | 88.16% ±2.94 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850608?window=all) | 13.2K | 88.16% ±2.94 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 4,167 | $211 | 0.9% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.95× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $201 | 0.9% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 1 in 2,703 | $139 | 0.9% | 8 | 4.9 | 1.64× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $127 | 0.9% | 10 | 5.3 | 1.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 2,273 | $115 | 0.9% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-well-worn) | 1 in 2,041 | $103 | 0.9% | 11 | 6.5 | 1.70× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $102 | 0.9% | 2 | 6.6 | 0.30× |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 1,923 | $99.23 | 0.9% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,923 | $98.98 | 0.9% | 4 | 6.9 | 0.58× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 238 | $53.37 | 3.9% | 65 | 55.5 | 1.17× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 224 | $50.17 | 3.9% | 57 | 59.1 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 217 | $48.79 | 3.9% | 59 | 60.8 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 202 | $45.46 | 3.9% | 68 | 65.3 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 140 | $31.42 | 3.9% | 88 | 94.4 | 0.93× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $21.31 | 3.9% | 124 | 139.2 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $17.73 | 3.9% | 169 | 167.4 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $15.58 | 3.9% | 185 | 190.4 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $14.48 | 3.9% | 194 | 204.9 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 64 | $14.44 | 3.9% | 226 | 205.5 | 1.10× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $14.40 | 8.3% | 388 | 440.7 | 0.88× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $14.25 | 8.3% | 418 | 445.3 | 0.94× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $8.44 | 8.3% | 754 | 751.9 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $8.25 | 8.3% | 754 | 769.3 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $8.20 | 8.3% | 767 | 774.0 | 0.99× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $5.96 | 1.7% | 217 | 217.9 | 1.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $5.37 | 1.7% | 233 | 241.8 | 0.96× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $1.52 | 1.7% | 874 | 854.3 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $1.31 | 1.7% | 1,029 | 991.1 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 10.3% | $0.95 | 1.7% | 1,409 | 1366.8 | 1.03× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.91 | 1.1% | 888 | 896.1 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.84 | 1.1% | 964 | 970.6 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 24.3% | $0.26 | 1.1% | 3,239 | 3210.3 | 1.01× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/850608`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=850608)

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) [BoA\_Dupczyciel](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/BoA_Dupczyciel) $6.50 $0.26 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) [wertysJ60 OsloRP](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/wertysJ60%20OsloRP) $6.50 $1.52 0.23x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.50 $1.52 0.23x 2026-11-11 19:53 UTC

[MP9 | Goo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.50 $1.31 0.20x 2026-11-11 19:53 UTC

[Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) [matisianokoks skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/matisianokoks%20skins.army) $6.50 $15.58 2.40x 2026-11-11 19:53 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $6.50 $0.26 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC

[P2000 | Imperial (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-factory-new) [frison](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/frison) $6.50 $0.91 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC

[AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) Hidden $6.50 $0.95 0.15x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.50 $0.26 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) [Rajchelek skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Rajchelek%20skins.army) $6.50 $0.26 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $6.50 | 88.92% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% covert 1.2% classified 19.3% Mythical 1.6% uncommon 5.8% #8847ff 5.9% mil spec 8.4% Legendary 1.8% restricted 14.0% #4b69ff 10.3% blue 7.3% industrial 24.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.92 on average: an expected loss of $11.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt