---
title: "Navcia case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Navcia ($12.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.97% from 32 items with odds, observed 88.24% over 3,916 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850644
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Navcia](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850644)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Navcia

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850644?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850644?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850644) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850644?window=all)

Price · $12.00

Advertised RTP · 88.97% · EV $10.68 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.24% · 3,916 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.44% ±14.57 536 openings

7 days · 87.12% ±5.93 3,237 openings

30 days · 88.24% ±5.39 3,916 openings

since tracking started · 88.24% ±5.39 3,916 openings

76.0% 91.3% 106.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850644?window=24h) | 536 | 91.44% ±14.6 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850644?window=7d) | 3,237 | 87.12% ±5.93 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850644) | 3,916 | 88.24% ±5.39 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/850644?window=all) | 3,916 | 88.24% ±5.39 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,922 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 2,083 | $336 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.06× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-well-worn) | 1 in 2,041 | $324 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,020 | $163 | 1.5% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.52× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 877 | $140 | 1.5% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.89× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 794 | $126 | 1.5% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.81× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) | 1 in 184 | $80.21 | 4.1% | 27 | 21.3 | 1.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $79.49 | 4.1% | 15 | 21.5 | 0.70× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 168 | $73.04 | 4.1% | 24 | 23.4 | 1.03× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 163 | $71.08 | 4.1% | 23 | 24.1 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 159 | $69.23 | 4.1% | 27 | 24.7 | 1.09× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 136 | $59.42 | 4.1% | 34 | 28.8 | 1.18× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 126 | $54.96 | 4.1% | 38 | 31.1 | 1.22× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $53.27 | 4.1% | 29 | 32.1 | 0.90× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $49.58 | 4.1% | 33 | 34.5 | 0.96× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $32.87 | 4.1% | 57 | 52.1 | 1.09× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $29.73 | 4.1% | 66 | 57.6 | 1.15× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $22.30 | 5.7% | 95 | 106.8 | 0.89× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $21.05 | 5.7% | 88 | 113.1 | 0.78× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $21.01 | 5.7% | 111 | 113.3 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $17.89 | 5.7% | 134 | 133.1 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $15.80 | 5.7% | 155 | 150.7 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $15.55 | 5.7% | 159 | 153.1 | 1.04× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $13.77 | 5.7% | 170 | 172.9 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $9.78 | 0.9% | 32 | 40.1 | 0.80× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $9.11 | 0.9% | 41 | 43.1 | 0.95× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $8.02 | 0.9% | 47 | 48.9 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $6.89 | 0.9% | 49 | 56.9 | 0.86× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $6.62 | 0.9% | 56 | 59.3 | 0.94× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.32 | 0.9% | 296 | 297.1 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $1.16 | 0.7% | 261 | 259.2 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-battle-scarred) | 19.2% | $0.40 | 0.7% | 734 | 751.7 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 26.9% | $0.28 | 0.7% | 1,107 | 1054.2 | 1.05× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/850644`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=850644)

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) Hidden $12.00 $22.30 1.86x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) [mendzisz](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mendzisz) $12.00 $0.28 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC

[MAC-10 | Allure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.00 $0.40 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) [mendzisz](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mendzisz) $12.00 $8.02 0.67x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) Hidden $12.00 $0.28 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.00 $1.16 0.10x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[MAC-10 | Allure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-battle-scarred) [Eck0](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Eck0) $12.00 $0.40 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) Hidden $12.00 $0.28 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) [loskini](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/loskini) $12.00 $22.30 1.86x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) [kvxbag7skins.army11](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kvxbag7skins.army11) $12.00 $0.28 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $12.00 | 88.97% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.1% extraordinary 1.9% Ancient 0.1% classified 25.7% restricted 8.1% red 0.6% sunny 0.9% #d32ee6 2.9% pink 1.1% Legendary 3.0% mil spec 6.6% #8847ff 19.2% #4b69ff 26.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.97 on average: an expected loss of $11.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt