---
title: "HADES case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "HADES ($10.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.88% from 35 items with odds, observed 85.43% over 2,029 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853194
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [HADES](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853194)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · HADES

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853194?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853194?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853194) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853194?window=all)

Price · $10.00

Advertised RTP · 88.88% · EV $8.89 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.43% · 2,029 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 72.17% ±29.86 241 openings

7 days · 86.52% ±11.35 1,667 openings

30 days · 85.43% ±10.29 2,029 openings

since tracking started · 85.43% ±10.29 2,029 openings

41.5% 72.0% 102.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853194?window=24h) | 241 | 72.17% ±29.9 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853194?window=7d) | 1,667 | 86.52% ±11.4 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853194) | 2,029 | 85.43% ±10.3 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853194?window=all) | 2,029 | 85.43% ±10.3 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,029 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 3,030 | $520 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $432 | 1.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $287 | 1.9% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 1,389 | $241 | 2.0% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.37× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 1,235 | $214 | 2.0% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.22× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 1,075 | $187 | 2.0% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 926 | $161 | 2.0% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 862 | $150 | 2.0% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.27× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 826 | $143 | 1.9% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.41× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 775 | $134 | 1.9% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 602 | $104 | 1.9% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 581 | $101 | 2.0% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 281 | $81.72 | 3.3% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 243 | $70.83 | 3.3% | 5 | 8.3 | 0.60× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 185 | $53.82 | 3.3% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 169 | $49.06 | 3.3% | 14 | 12.0 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $38.75 | 3.3% | 15 | 15.2 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 113 | $32.90 | 3.3% | 18 | 18.0 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 101 | $29.36 | 3.3% | 24 | 20.1 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $27.76 | 3.3% | 25 | 21.3 | 1.17× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $27.70 | 3.3% | 16 | 21.3 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $21.21 | 3.3% | 24 | 27.8 | 0.86× |
| [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $18.07 | 6.6% | 70 | 65.5 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $17.31 | 6.6% | 77 | 68.4 | 1.13× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $13.31 | 6.6% | 87 | 88.9 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $12.75 | 6.6% | 104 | 92.8 | 1.12× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $11.66 | 6.6% | 100 | 101.5 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $11.13 | 6.6% | 106 | 106.3 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 107 | $6.12 | 0.6% | 19 | 19.0 | 1.00× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) | 1 in 63 | $3.59 | 0.6% | 29 | 32.3 | 0.90× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.35 | 0.6% | 77 | 85.9 | 0.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.69 | 0.6% | 170 | 168.0 | 1.01× |
| [MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-field-tested) | 10.2% | $0.56 | 0.6% | 207 | 207.0 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 13.9% | $0.41 | 0.6% | 284 | 282.8 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) | 25.8% | $0.22 | 0.6% | 520 | 524.1 | 0.99× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/853194`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=853194)

[USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $0.22 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC

[USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) [inżynier z iraku](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/in%C5%BCynier%20z%20iraku) $10.00 $0.22 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC

[USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $0.22 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.00 $0.41 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) [Eck0](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Eck0) $10.00 $0.41 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC

[AUG | Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.00 $6.12 0.61x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) [y4s](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/y4s) $10.00 $0.41 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC

[USP-S | Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.00 $13.31 1.33x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) [y4s](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/y4s) $10.00 $11.13 1.11x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $11.66 1.17x 2026-11-11 17:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $10.00 | 88.88% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 2.5% sunny 0.1% red 0.1% classified 21.3% restricted 19.8% Classified 0.9% mil spec 48.4% #d32ee6 1.0% uncommon 1.6% #8847ff 4.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.88 on average: an expected loss of $11.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt