---
title: "HYPER case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "HYPER ($10.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.81% from 39 items with odds, observed 102.56% over 2,020 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853201
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:20Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [HYPER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853201)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · HYPER

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853201?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853201?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853201) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853201?window=all)

Price · $10.00

Advertised RTP · 88.81% · EV $8.88 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 102.56% · 2,020 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 120.31% ±36.76 263 openings

7 days · 105.58% ±14.54 1,681 openings

30 days · 102.56% ±13.26 2,020 openings

since tracking started · 102.56% ±13.26 2,020 openings

83.0% 120.2% 157.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 88.81% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (89.29% – 115.82%, 2,020 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853201?window=24h) | 263 | 120.31% ±36.8 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853201?window=7d) | 1,681 | 105.58% ±14.5 | +2.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853201) | 2,020 | 102.56% ±13.3 | +2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/853201?window=all) | 2,020 | 102.56% ±13.3 | +2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,020 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $1,250 | 2.5% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 1,389 | $305 | 2.5% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.69× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-well-worn) | 1 in 1,351 | $298 | 2.5% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.01× |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 1,316 | $290 | 2.5% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,266 | $277 | 2.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,149 | $252 | 2.5% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 855 | $188 | 2.5% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-factory-new) | 1 in 763 | $168 | 2.5% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 637 | $140 | 2.5% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 633 | $139 | 2.5% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.25× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 625 | $138 | 2.5% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.24× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 386 | $94.83 | 2.8% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.15× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 380 | $93.32 | 2.8% | 8 | 5.3 | 1.51× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 366 | $89.77 | 2.8% | 8 | 5.5 | 1.45× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 288 | $70.77 | 2.8% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 267 | $65.54 | 2.8% | 10 | 7.6 | 1.32× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 235 | $57.63 | 2.8% | 12 | 8.6 | 1.39× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 232 | $56.94 | 2.8% | 9 | 8.7 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 213 | $52.36 | 2.8% | 7 | 9.5 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 204 | $50.17 | 2.8% | 15 | 9.9 | 1.52× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $40.27 | 2.8% | 14 | 12.3 | 1.14× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $35.60 | 2.8% | 6 | 13.9 | 0.43× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $32.22 | 2.8% | 18 | 15.4 | 1.17× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 118 | $29.04 | 2.8% | 13 | 17.1 | 0.76× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 117 | $28.74 | 2.8% | 17 | 17.3 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 114 | $27.90 | 2.8% | 13 | 17.8 | 0.73× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $26.97 | 2.8% | 19 | 18.4 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $18.79 | 3.2% | 28 | 30.9 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $18.26 | 3.2% | 33 | 31.8 | 1.04× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $18.06 | 3.2% | 33 | 32.1 | 1.03× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $15.16 | 3.2% | 39 | 38.3 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $13.23 | 3.2% | 54 | 43.8 | 1.23× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $12.57 | 3.2% | 44 | 46.1 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $11.68 | 3.2% | 45 | 49.7 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 10.8% | $0.96 | 1.2% | 232 | 218.8 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $0.80 | 1.2% | 282 | 262.6 | 1.07× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-field-tested) | 15.1% | $0.69 | 1.2% | 289 | 304.5 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) | 17.6% | $0.59 | 1.2% | 347 | 356.1 | 0.97× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-well-worn) | 20.0% | $0.52 | 1.2% | 387 | 403.2 | 0.96× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/853201`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) [MarcAmi005](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MarcAmi005) $10.00 $1,250 125.0x 2026-11-10 21:01 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $1,250 125.0x 2026-11-04 21:17 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=853201)

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.00 $0.80 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) [RadZioxS 33](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/RadZioxS%2033) $10.00 $0.80 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC

[AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) [Lechu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Lechu) $10.00 $0.96 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC

[AWP | Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $0.96 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC

[USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) [RadZioxS 33](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/RadZioxS%2033) $10.00 $0.59 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC

[Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-well-worn) [Lechu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Lechu) $10.00 $0.52 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC

[USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $0.59 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:50 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-field-tested) [Palto](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Palto) $10.00 $0.69 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:50 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Night (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-field-tested) [Mati -\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mati%20-_-) $10.00 $13.23 1.32x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC

[USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) [G-E-I-T](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/G-E-I-T) $10.00 $0.59 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $10.00 | 88.81% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% Covert 0.1% covert 3.0% classified 4.5% industrial 1.1% covert knife 0.3% restricted 4.3% mil spec 51.5% blue 3.1% #d32ee6 1.6% light blue 2.2% pink 2.5% #4b69ff 10.8% #8847ff 15.1% best hit $1,250 (125.0x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.81 on average: an expected loss of $11.19 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt