---
title: "Grendy case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Grendy ($4.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.82% from 37 items with odds, observed 86.37% over 8,495 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/880852
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:07Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Grendy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/880852)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Grendy

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/880852?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/880852?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/880852) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/880852?window=all)

Price · $4.00

Advertised RTP · 88.82% · EV $3.55 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.37% · 8,495 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.21% ±11.82 1,006 openings

7 days · 86.07% ±4.61 6,624 openings

30 days · 86.37% ±4.07 8,495 openings

since tracking started · 86.37% ±4.07 8,495 openings

72.5% 85.0% 97.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/880852?window=24h) | 1,006 | 85.21% ±11.8 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/880852?window=7d) | 6,624 | 86.07% ±4.61 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/880852) | 8,495 | 86.37% ±4.07 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/880852?window=all) | 8,495 | 86.37% ±4.07 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,514 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 3,030 | $152 | 1.4% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 2,857 | $140 | 1.4% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.34× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 2,381 | $119 | 1.4% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.40× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,128 | $106 | 1.4% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 1,961 | $97.38 | 1.4% | 1 | 4.3 | 0.23× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 1,176 | $58.39 | 1.4% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.69× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-well-worn) | 1 in 1,064 | $53.08 | 1.4% | 6 | 8.0 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,010 | $50.16 | 1.4% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.31× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-battle-scarred) | 1 in 219 | $34.14 | 4.4% | 33 | 38.8 | 0.85× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $25.55 | 4.4% | 48 | 51.9 | 0.93× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 127 | $19.80 | 4.4% | 63 | 66.9 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $19.17 | 4.4% | 57 | 69.0 | 0.83× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $14.75 | 4.4% | 86 | 89.8 | 0.96× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 94 | $14.67 | 4.4% | 94 | 90.2 | 1.04× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $10.91 | 4.4% | 133 | 121.4 | 1.10× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $9.22 | 4.4% | 150 | 143.6 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $8.73 | 4.4% | 165 | 151.7 | 1.09× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $6.96 | 5.2% | 250 | 227.2 | 1.10× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $6.94 | 5.2% | 236 | 227.8 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $6.07 | 5.2% | 249 | 260.5 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $5.80 | 5.2% | 286 | 272.6 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $5.57 | 5.2% | 288 | 283.9 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $4.80 | 5.2% | 304 | 329.4 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $4.17 | 5.2% | 354 | 379.2 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $3.50 | 1.2% | 107 | 100.4 | 1.07× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 79 | $3.28 | 1.2% | 109 | 107.1 | 1.02× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $2.82 | 1.2% | 149 | 124.6 | 1.20× |
| [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $1.73 | 1.2% | 200 | 203.0 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $1.44 | 1.2% | 242 | 243.9 | 0.99× |
| [MAG-7 \| Copper Coated (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-coated-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.18 | 1.2% | 302 | 297.6 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-pipe-down-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.00 | 1.2% | 364 | 351.2 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.76 | 1.2% | 478 | 462.1 | 1.03× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.33 | 0.7% | 637 | 650.1 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Off World (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.32 | 0.7% | 648 | 670.5 | 0.97× |
| [FAMAS \| Crypsis (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-crypsis-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.29 | 0.7% | 685 | 739.9 | 0.93× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.29 | 0.7% | 764 | 739.9 | 1.03× |
| [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 11.5% | $0.21 | 0.7% | 998 | 978.3 | 1.02× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/880852`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=880852)

[FAMAS | Crypsis (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-crypsis-well-worn) Hidden $4.00 $0.29 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) [RED THOM](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/RED%20THOM) $4.00 $4.80 1.20x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) Hidden $4.00 $0.29 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) [sepko](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sepko) $4.00 $14.67 3.67x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) [Rajchelek skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Rajchelek%20skins.army) $4.00 $6.07 1.52x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC

[MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-copper-coated-field-tested) [Kazik67 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kazik67%20skins.army) $4.00 $1.18 0.30x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC

[MAG-7 | Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) [76561199054196333](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/76561199054196333) $4.00 $6.96 1.74x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) Hidden $4.00 $0.29 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:02 UTC

[P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-battle-scarred) [76561199054196333](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/76561199054196333) $4.00 $0.33 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:02 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) [KamilerOO](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KamilerOO) $4.00 $4.17 1.04x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $4.00 | 88.82% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.3% gold 0.1% classified 10.8% extraordinary 0.5% #d32ce6 1.1% #d32ee6 5.3% violet 1.8% Legendary 2.7% Classified 3.2% #8847ff 10.2% restricted 8.6% mil spec 9.9% blue 3.6% Mythical 2.9% #4b69ff 39.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.82 on average: an expected loss of $11.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt