---
title: "Denis case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Denis ($25.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.86% from 33 items with odds, observed 83.56% over 1,138 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883200
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:01Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Denis](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883200)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Denis

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883200?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883200?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883200) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883200?window=all)

Price · $25.00

Advertised RTP · 88.86% · EV $22.22 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.56% · 1,138 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.19% ±28.18 153 openings

7 days · 79.57% ±11.43 930 openings

30 days · 83.56% ±10.33 1,138 openings

since tracking started · 83.56% ±10.33 1,138 openings

52.5% 81.3% 110.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883200?window=24h) | 153 | 81.19% ±28.2 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883200?window=7d) | 930 | 79.57% ±11.4 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883200) | 1,138 | 83.56% ±10.3 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883200?window=all) | 1,138 | 83.56% ±10.3 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,138 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $1,207 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,613 | $678 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,351 | $568 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 690 | $287 | 1.9% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $192 | 2.8% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.27× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 273 | $168 | 2.8% | 1 | 4.2 | 0.24× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 239 | $147 | 2.8% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.84× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 228 | $140 | 2.8% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 221 | $136 | 2.8% | 8 | 5.1 | 1.56× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 181 | $111 | 2.8% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 159 | $97.74 | 2.8% | 7 | 7.2 | 0.98× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 155 | $95.06 | 2.8% | 10 | 7.4 | 1.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 154 | $94.92 | 2.8% | 10 | 7.4 | 1.36× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 136 | $83.93 | 2.8% | 8 | 8.3 | 0.96× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-field-tested) | 1 in 132 | $80.92 | 2.8% | 9 | 8.6 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $66.41 | 2.8% | 11 | 10.5 | 1.04× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $56.33 | 2.8% | 15 | 12.4 | 1.21× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $49.63 | 8.8% | 47 | 45.1 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $43.46 | 8.9% | 48 | 51.5 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $39.28 | 8.8% | 63 | 57.0 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $34.60 | 8.8% | 73 | 64.7 | 1.13× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $25.40 | 8.8% | 89 | 88.1 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $23.28 | 2.0% | 20 | 21.4 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $22.90 | 2.0% | 23 | 21.8 | 1.06× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $12.27 | 2.0% | 44 | 40.6 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $8.18 | 2.0% | 74 | 60.9 | 1.21× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $7.59 | 2.0% | 67 | 65.7 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 13.3% | $3.30 | 2.0% | 129 | 151.0 | 0.85× |
| [MP7 \| Armor Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $0.51 | 0.1% | 28 | 35.7 | 0.78× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.45 | 0.1% | 33 | 40.5 | 0.82× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.30 | 0.1% | 59 | 60.7 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.28 | 0.1% | 67 | 65.0 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) | 15.3% | $0.11 | 0.1% | 179 | 173.9 | 1.03× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/883200`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=883200)

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $3.30 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[AWP | POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.00 $8.18 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) [Janickyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Janickyy) $25.00 $39.28 1.57x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.00 $43.46 1.74x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-battle-scarred) [JOHN CENA skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/JOHN%20CENA%20skins.army) $25.00 $25.40 1.02x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) Hidden $25.00 $39.28 1.57x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) [User0 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/User0%20skins.army) $25.00 $0.11 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $0.11 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) Hidden $25.00 $0.11 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[MP9 | Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) [DejvidS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DejvidS) $25.00 $0.30 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $25.00 | 88.86% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 11.8% gold 0.1% red 5.1% classified 11.8% extraordinary 1.8% #ffd700 1.1% Legendary 0.9% restricted 10.3% pink 1.9% #d32ee6 3.6% violet 5.4% Mythical 13.3% mil spec 17.7% #4b69ff 15.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.86 on average: an expected loss of $11.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt