---
title: "Fatek case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fatek ($12.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.81% from 33 items with odds, observed 92.23% over 6,473 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883201
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Fatek](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883201)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Fatek

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883201?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883201?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883201) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883201?window=all)

Price · $12.50

Advertised RTP · 88.81% · EV $11.10 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.23% · 6,473 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.91% ±13.76 860 openings

7 days · 90.88% ±5.29 5,810 openings

30 days · 92.23% ±5.01 6,473 openings

since tracking started · 92.23% ±5.01 6,473 openings

77.5% 92.0% 106.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883201?window=24h) | 860 | 91.91% ±13.8 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883201?window=7d) | 5,810 | 90.88% ±5.29 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883201) | 6,473 | 92.23% ±5.01 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/883201?window=all) | 6,473 | 92.23% ±5.01 | +1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,486 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,571 | $563 | 1.4% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.65× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,381 | $375 | 1.4% | 7 | 2.7 | 2.57× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 1,754 | $275 | 1.4% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,613 | $252 | 1.4% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.24× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,020 | $160 | 1.4% | 1 | 6.4 | 0.16× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 893 | $141 | 1.4% | 3 | 7.3 | 0.41× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 826 | $130 | 1.4% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 1 in 153 | $102 | 6.0% | 42 | 42.4 | 0.99× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $95.77 | 6.0% | 50 | 45.1 | 1.11× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 141 | $93.93 | 6.0% | 49 | 46.1 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $82.29 | 6.0% | 56 | 52.5 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $78.38 | 6.0% | 56 | 55.2 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $60.16 | 6.0% | 73 | 71.9 | 1.01× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $55.64 | 6.0% | 84 | 77.8 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $33.74 | 6.0% | 119 | 128.2 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $33.34 | 6.0% | 137 | 129.7 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $24.42 | 4.9% | 160 | 143.9 | 1.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $19.59 | 4.9% | 178 | 179.3 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $17.51 | 4.9% | 212 | 200.6 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $17.05 | 4.9% | 231 | 206.1 | 1.12× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $16.53 | 4.9% | 200 | 212.5 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $13.46 | 4.9% | 256 | 261.0 | 0.98× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 121 | $11.91 | 0.9% | 57 | 53.6 | 1.06× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 96 | $9.39 | 0.9% | 70 | 67.9 | 1.03× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $6.37 | 0.9% | 92 | 100.1 | 0.92× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $5.89 | 0.9% | 117 | 108.3 | 1.08× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $4.14 | 0.9% | 169 | 154.0 | 1.10× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $3.88 | 0.9% | 172 | 164.4 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.72 | 0.3% | 276 | 284.7 | 0.97× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.36 | 0.3% | 566 | 569.3 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $0.33 | 0.3% | 574 | 621.1 | 0.92× |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $0.21 | 0.3% | 973 | 976.0 | 1.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-field-tested) | 23.1% | $0.14 | 0.3% | 1,490 | 1500.5 | 0.99× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/883201`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-battle-scarred) [Malina](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Malina) $12.50 $563 45.05x 2026-11-09 22:58 UTC

[★ Karambit | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.50 $563 45.05x 2026-11-07 09:48 UTC

[★ Karambit | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-battle-scarred) [Tabaluga](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Tabaluga) $12.50 $563 45.05x 2026-11-05 23:10 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=883201)

[PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 $0.14 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-field-tested) [Nikszai](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Nikszai) $12.50 $0.14 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 $0.14 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) [Nikszai](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Nikszai) $12.50 $0.33 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.50 $0.33 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-factory-new) [Nikszai](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Nikszai) $12.50 $16.53 1.32x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.50 $0.33 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) [Nikszai](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Nikszai) $12.50 $9.39 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[AUG | Triqua (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.50 $0.21 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.50 $0.33 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $12.50 | 88.81% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.0% covert 6.2% red 0.3% classified 20.6% pink 2.2% restricted 12.9% #eb4b4b 3.2% Legendary 2.4% milspec 4.4% mil spec 9.6% #4b69ff 15.0% #87c7ff 23.1% best hit $563 (45.05x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.81 on average: an expected loss of $11.19 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt