---
title: "Arkadio case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Arkadio ($20.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.77% from 38 items with odds, observed 84.77% over 1,011 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/884012
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Arkadio](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/884012)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Arkadio

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/884012?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/884012?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/884012) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/884012?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 88.77% · EV $17.75 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.77% · 1,011 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 102.44% ±25.98 152 openings

7 days · 83.42% ±11.25 811 openings

30 days · 84.77% ±10.07 1,011 openings

since tracking started · 84.77% ±10.07 1,011 openings

71.5% 100.3% 129.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/884012?window=24h) | 152 | 102.44% ±26.0 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/884012?window=7d) | 811 | 83.42% ±11.2 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/884012) | 1,011 | 84.77% ±10.1 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/884012?window=all) | 1,011 | 84.77% ±10.1 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,014 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $780 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 4,762 | $624 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) | 1 in 3,333 | $444 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 2,941 | $388 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 2,439 | $324 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 2,174 | $287 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,887 | $251 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,562 | $209 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 1,562 | $207 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 412 | $194 | 2.6% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 383 | $180 | 2.6% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 339 | $159 | 2.6% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.34× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 297 | $140 | 2.6% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 266 | $125 | 2.7% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 264 | $124 | 2.6% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.30× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 234 | $110 | 2.6% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 220 | $104 | 2.6% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 166 | $78.01 | 2.6% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.65× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) | 1 in 115 | $54.18 | 2.6% | 8 | 8.8 | 0.91× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-field-tested) | 1 in 107 | $50.15 | 2.6% | 9 | 9.5 | 0.95× |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 96 | $44.95 | 2.6% | 15 | 10.6 | 1.41× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $36.44 | 6.2% | 32 | 30.8 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $35.07 | 6.2% | 35 | 32.0 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $34.60 | 6.2% | 30 | 32.4 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $32.23 | 6.2% | 20 | 34.8 | 0.57× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $30.46 | 6.2% | 29 | 36.9 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $30.05 | 6.2% | 50 | 37.4 | 1.34× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $25.00 | 6.2% | 49 | 44.9 | 1.09× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $15.48 | 2.9% | 40 | 33.3 | 1.20× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $13.26 | 2.9% | 38 | 38.9 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $8.88 | 2.9% | 68 | 58.0 | 1.17× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $8.33 | 2.9% | 66 | 61.9 | 1.07× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $7.71 | 2.9% | 58 | 66.9 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $5.18 | 2.9% | 88 | 99.5 | 0.88× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.91 | 0.2% | 40 | 33.4 | 1.20× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.45 | 0.2% | 75 | 67.6 | 1.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.41 | 0.2% | 78 | 74.2 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 16.2% | $0.19 | 0.2% | 157 | 164.2 | 0.96× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/884012`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) [VØID](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/V%C3%98ID) $20.00 $780 39.01x 2026-11-10 22:04 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=884012)

[AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) [RZCrt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/RZCrt) $20.00 $104 5.18x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) [szymekprintstream skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/szymekprintstream%20skins.army) $20.00 $25.00 1.25x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) [RadZioxS 33](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/RadZioxS%2033) $20.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) [szacio\_21skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/szacio_21skins.army) $20.00 $34.60 1.73x 2026-11-11 18:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.00 $5.18 0.26x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Shred (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $0.45 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.00 $0.41 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) [type shittttt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/type%20shittttt) $20.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Shred (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $0.45 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Shred (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $0.45 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $20.00 | 88.77% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 7.7% base 0.0% classified 19.7% restricted 6.6% gold 0.0% #ffd700 0.4% Mythical 0.4% Ancient 0.5% extraordinary 1.5% pink 0.9% Legendary 9.4% industrial 3.8% mil spec 19.7% light blue 26.0% #4b69ff 3.3% best hit $780 (39.01x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.77 on average: an expected loss of $11.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt