---
title: "EXUS case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "EXUS ($10.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.83% from 41 items with odds, observed 82.73% over 1,517 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/927618
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [EXUS](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/927618)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · EXUS

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/927618?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/927618?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/927618) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/927618?window=all)

Price · $10.00

Advertised RTP · 88.83% · EV $8.88 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.73% · 1,517 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 99.49% ±41.64 128 openings

7 days · 83.76% ±13.15 1,284 openings

30 days · 82.73% ±12.10 1,517 openings

since tracking started · 82.73% ±12.10 1,517 openings

57.0% 99.5% 142.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/927618?window=24h) | 128 | 99.49% ±41.6 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/927618?window=7d) | 1,284 | 83.76% ±13.1 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/927618) | 1,517 | 82.73% ±12.1 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/927618?window=all) | 1,517 | 82.73% ±12.1 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,521 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,167 | $563 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,941 | $391 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 1 in 2,381 | $316 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-well-worn) | 1 in 2,128 | $283 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,887 | $252 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,695 | $225 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 1,408 | $187 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,333 | $176 | 1.5% | 4 | 1.1 | 3.51× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,053 | $139 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,020 | $135 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.34× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,020 | $135 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.34× |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 962 | $127 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 935 | $124 | 1.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 794 | $105 | 1.5% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.57× |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-field-tested) | 1 in 763 | $102 | 1.5% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 370 | $88.61 | 2.7% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-field-tested) | 1 in 365 | $87.53 | 2.7% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) | 1 in 332 | $79.52 | 2.7% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 316 | $75.68 | 2.7% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 251 | $59.94 | 2.7% | 9 | 6.1 | 1.48× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 219 | $52.47 | 2.7% | 5 | 6.9 | 0.72× |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 208 | $49.91 | 2.7% | 12 | 7.3 | 1.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 170 | $40.68 | 2.7% | 13 | 8.9 | 1.45× |
| [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 169 | $40.47 | 2.7% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-field-tested) | 1 in 163 | $39.02 | 2.7% | 10 | 9.3 | 1.07× |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $23.89 | 2.7% | 16 | 15.2 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $23.82 | 2.7% | 11 | 15.3 | 0.72× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $22.86 | 2.7% | 16 | 15.9 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 94 | $22.48 | 2.7% | 9 | 16.2 | 0.56× |
| [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $21.47 | 2.7% | 23 | 17.0 | 1.36× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $18.47 | 5.7% | 50 | 42.0 | 1.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $18.26 | 5.7% | 44 | 42.5 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $15.66 | 5.7% | 45 | 49.5 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $15.24 | 5.7% | 42 | 50.9 | 0.83× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $13.23 | 5.7% | 54 | 58.6 | 0.92× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $13.10 | 5.7% | 56 | 59.2 | 0.95× |
| [XM1014 \| Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.79 | 0.5% | 100 | 92.4 | 1.08× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 10.9% | $0.44 | 0.5% | 154 | 165.9 | 0.93× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $0.40 | 0.5% | 193 | 182.5 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 18.5% | $0.26 | 0.5% | 296 | 280.8 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) | 22.0% | $0.22 | 0.5% | 326 | 334.0 | 0.98× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/927618`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=927618)

[MAC-10 | Allure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-battle-scarred) [Kazik67 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kazik67%20skins.army) $10.00 $0.40 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) [Eck0](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Eck0) $10.00 $18.26 1.83x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $0.44 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) [Rollcix](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Rollcix) $10.00 $0.26 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC

[FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.00 $23.89 2.39x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 $18.47 1.85x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[MAC-10 | Allure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-battle-scarred) [Rollcix](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Rollcix) $10.00 $0.40 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Night (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 $13.10 1.31x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Night (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-well-worn) [y4s](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/y4s) $10.00 $13.10 1.31x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 $18.47 1.85x 2026-11-11 18:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $10.00 | 88.83% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 1.8% classified 9.5% extraordinary 0.3% covert 1.3% Mythical 0.2% Legendary 0.1% mil spec 23.3% gold 0.6% violet 1.0% pink 3.8% blue 2.8% light blue 3.9% industrial 22.4% Rare 6.1% #8847ff 22.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.83 on average: an expected loss of $11.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt