---
title: "Toxic Origin case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Toxic Origin ($2.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.90% from 24 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930245
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:01Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Toxic Origin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930245)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Toxic Origin

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930245?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930245?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930245) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930245?window=all)

Price · $2.50

Advertised RTP · 88.90% · EV $2.22 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 7.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930245?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930245?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930245) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930245?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,941 | $185 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-field-tested) | 1 in 1,887 | $118 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 1,389 | $87.36 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 1,010 | $63.36 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-field-tested) | 1 in 595 | $37.22 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 556 | $34.70 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 485 | $30.28 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 446 | $27.89 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 186 | $21.47 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 168 | $19.44 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 106 | $12.32 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $9.49 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $5.65 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $5.25 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $5.24 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $4.89 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $4.72 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $4.31 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $3.91 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $3.87 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $3.76 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $2.74 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $2.72 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-battle-scarred) | 66.2% | $0.09 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/930245`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=930245)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.50 | 88.90% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.4% extraordinary 0.1% #d32ee6 0.2% restricted 2.4% classified 17.3% Legendary 2.2% blue 2.7% #8847ff 5.6% #4b69ff 66.2%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.90 on average: an expected loss of $11.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt