---
title: "Wicked Clown case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Wicked Clown ($40.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.88% from 31 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930266
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Wicked Clown](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930266)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Wicked Clown

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930266?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930266?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930266) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930266?window=all)

Price · $40.00

Advertised RTP · 88.88% · EV $35.55 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930266?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930266?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930266) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/930266?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,333 | $1,335 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 1,010 | $1,015 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 813 | $813 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 709 | $709 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 513 | $514 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 242 | $363 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 215 | $323 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 161 | $241 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $184 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 94 | $141 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $118 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $114 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $83.05 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $74.60 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $65.48 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $62.86 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $53.89 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $53.86 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $51.81 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 109 | $38.30 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $33.31 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $27.42 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $14.35 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $11.52 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $7.96 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $5.18 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.39 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.21 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.16 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) | 14.5% | $0.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/930266`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=930266)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $40.00 | 88.88% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 22.6% extraordinary 1.4% classified 11.0% red 8.0% #eb4b4b 4.2% Legendary 8.0% restricted 4.3% #8847ff 4.9% Rare 9.1% blue 12.0% mil spec 14.5%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.88 on average: an expected loss of $11.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt