---
title: "Widow's Web case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Widow's Web ($205.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.51% from 33 items with odds, observed 77.03% over 32 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952534
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Widow's Web](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952534)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Widow's Web

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952534?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952534?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952534) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952534?window=all)

Price · $205.00

Advertised RTP · 86.51% · EV $177.34 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.03% · 32 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 11 openings · below min

7 days · 32 openings · below min

30 days · 32 openings · below min

since tracking started · 32 openings · below min

22.0% 77.5% 133.0%

**Small sample.** 32 openings and 7.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952534?window=24h) | 11 | 77.57% ±54.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952534?window=7d) | 32 | 77.03% ±32.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952534) | 32 | 77.03% ±32.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952534?window=all) | 32 | 77.03% ±32.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $7,682 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 2,222 | $2,847 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,423 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,087 | $1,399 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,031 | $1,320 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 952 | $1,223 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 917 | $1,183 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 185 | $893 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 165 | $796 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 150 | $725 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 150 | $723 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 106 | $514 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $512 | 2.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $353 | 4.8% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $311 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $305 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $251 | 4.8% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.85× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $240 | 4.8% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.77× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $232 | 4.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $207 | 4.8% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.53× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $189 | 3.5% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $149 | 3.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $135 | 3.5% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $132 | 3.5% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.01× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $128 | 3.5% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.94× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $121 | 3.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $115 | 3.5% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $103 | 3.5% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.10× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $103 | 3.5% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $95.08 | 3.5% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $94.83 | 3.5% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $82.49 | 3.5% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.68× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $73.14 | 3.4% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.38× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/952534`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $205 $512 2.50x 2026-11-08 03:31 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=952534)

[★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $205 $251 1.23x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $205 $128 0.62x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $205 $251 1.23x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $205 $82.49 0.40x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $205 $135 0.66x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $205 $103 0.50x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $205 $353 1.72x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $205 $128 0.62x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-well-worn) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $205 $82.49 0.40x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $205 $103 0.50x 2026-11-10 20:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $205 | 86.51% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 86.9% Covert 0.0% #ffd700 6.6% Immortal 0.1% legendary 2.7% gold 3.7% best hit $512 (2.50x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.51 on average: an expected loss of $13.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt