---
title: "Shadow Fade case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Shadow Fade ($250.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.56% from 31 items with odds, observed 92.88% over 52 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952614
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Shadow Fade](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952614)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Shadow Fade

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952614?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952614?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952614) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952614?window=all)

Price · $250.00

Advertised RTP · 86.56% · EV $216.41 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.88% · 52 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 37.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 13 openings · below min

7 days · 37 openings · below min

30 days · 52 openings · below min

since tracking started · 52 openings · below min

38.5% 79.3% 120.0%

**Small sample.** 52 openings and 19.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952614?window=24h) | 13 | 73.77% ±34.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952614?window=7d) | 37 | 99.18% ±20.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952614) | 52 | 92.88% ±17.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/952614?window=all) | 52 | 92.88% ±17.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,226 | $3,015 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,125 | $2,858 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,632 | $2,415 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,128 | $1,971 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,562 | $1,442 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,220 | $1,124 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,190 | $1,091 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,149 | $1,055 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,099 | $1,017 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 328 | $901 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 318 | $877 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 309 | $849 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 272 | $747 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $611 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 215 | $591 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 208 | $572 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $549 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 55 | $439 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $381 | 3.7% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.84× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $339 | 3.7% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.64× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $334 | 3.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $310 | 3.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $262 | 3.7% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.90× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $255 | 3.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $246 | 8.5% | 8 | 3.9 | 2.05× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $221 | 8.5% | 8 | 4.3 | 1.84× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $203 | 8.5% | 4 | 4.7 | 0.85× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 11.6% | $159 | 8.5% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 11.8% | $156 | 8.5% | 3 | 6.2 | 0.49× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 13.5% | $136 | 8.5% | 4 | 7.0 | 0.57× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 17.0% | $116 | 9.1% | 10 | 8.9 | 1.13× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/952614`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $250 $1,124 4.50x 2026-11-04 22:26 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $250 $901 3.61x 2026-11-10 17:32 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=952614)

[★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $250 $221 0.88x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $250 $116 0.46x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $250 $159 0.64x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $250 $156 0.62x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) [R0B4LINI;](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/R0B4LINI%3B) $250 $116 0.46x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $250 $221 0.88x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) [R0B4LINI;](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/R0B4LINI%3B) $250 $116 0.46x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $250 $262 1.05x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) [R0B4LINI;](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/R0B4LINI%3B) $250 $221 0.88x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $250 $203 0.81x 2026-11-10 21:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $250 | 86.56% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 3.0% covert 91.8% #ffd700 0.8% rare 0.1% covert knife 3.8% legendary 0.4% best hit $1,124 (4.50x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.56 on average: an expected loss of $13.44 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt