--- title: "Eternal Prism case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Eternal Prism ($200.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.87% from 28 items with odds, observed 75.74% over 95 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953278 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Eternal Prism](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953278) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Eternal Prism A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953278?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953278?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953278) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953278?window=all) Price · $200.00 Advertised RTP · 86.87% · EV $173.74 from 28 items Observed RTP, 30d · 75.74% · 95 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 33.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 82 openings · below min 30 days · 95 openings · below min since tracking started · 95 openings · below min 46.0% 72.3% 98.5% **Small sample.** 95 openings and 32.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953278?window=24h) | 32 | 72.12% ±25.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953278?window=7d) | 82 | 75.98% ±15.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953278) | 95 | 75.74% ±14.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953278?window=all) | 95 | 75.74% ±14.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 95 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,613 | $2,191 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,351 | $1,847 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,099 | $1,487 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,020 | $1,391 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 847 | $1,156 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 312 | $933 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 270 | $810 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 238 | $714 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 206 | $618 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 187 | $561 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 177 | $530 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 172 | $517 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 157 | $472 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 155 | $465 | 1.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 79 | $371 | 2.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $325 | 2.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $296 | 2.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $285 | 2.7% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.91× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $252 | 2.7% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.69× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $246 | 2.7% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $207 | 2.7% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.93× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $193 | 8.6% | 6 | 7.4 | 0.81× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $170 | 8.6% | 10 | 8.4 | 1.19× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 10.2% | $147 | 8.6% | 10 | 9.7 | 1.03× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $136 | 8.6% | 6 | 10.5 | 0.57× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 11.6% | $130 | 8.6% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 15.3% | $97.76 | 8.6% | 18 | 14.6 | 1.23× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 18.2% | $92.99 | 9.7% | 21 | 17.3 | 1.21× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/953278`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) [PYREXX-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/PYREXX-) $200 $561 2.81x 2026-11-05 21:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 $517 2.59x 2026-11-06 15:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=953278) [★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 $147 0.74x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 $252 1.26x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $200 $136 0.68x 2026-11-11 15:37 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $200 $92.99 0.46x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $200 $136 0.68x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $200 $92.99 0.46x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $200 $97.76 0.49x 2026-11-11 05:56 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%3A%29) $200 $170 0.85x 2026-11-11 05:56 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $200 $193 0.96x 2026-11-11 05:55 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%3A%29) $200 $130 0.65x 2026-11-11 05:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $200 | 86.87% | 28 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 86.4% epic 1.6% Covert 0.4% covert knife 11.6% best hit $561 (2.81x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.87 on average: an expected loss of $13.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt