---
title: "Golden Wrath case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Golden Wrath ($180.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.14% from 31 items with odds, observed 84.11% over 151 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953282
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Golden Wrath](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953282)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Golden Wrath

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953282?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953282?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953282) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953282?window=all)

Price · $180.00

Advertised RTP · 89.14% · EV $160.45 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.11% · 151 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 33 openings · below min

7 days · 74.25% ±18.88 108 openings

30 days · 84.11% ±15.96 151 openings

since tracking started · 84.11% ±15.96 151 openings

34.0% 68.8% 103.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953282?window=24h) | 33 | 68.70% ±34.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953282?window=7d) | 108 | 74.25% ±18.9 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953282) | 151 | 84.11% ±16.0 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/953282?window=all) | 151 | 84.11% ±16.0 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 151 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,299 | $2,441 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,163 | $2,185 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 847 | $1,600 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 725 | $1,363 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 549 | $1,032 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 543 | $1,023 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 474 | $891 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 431 | $809 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $712 | 3.7% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.36× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 107 | $642 | 3.7% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.42× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $578 | 3.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $576 | 3.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $515 | 3.7% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $440 | 3.7% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.49× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $413 | 3.7% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 86 | $308 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $255 | 2.2% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $232 | 2.2% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.72× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $212 | 2.2% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $184 | 2.2% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.37× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $184 | 2.2% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $180 | 2.2% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $149 | 5.4% | 9 | 8.8 | 1.03× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $119 | 5.4% | 12 | 11.0 | 1.09× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $116 | 5.4% | 15 | 11.3 | 1.33× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $101 | 5.4% | 11 | 12.9 | 0.85× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $101 | 5.4% | 17 | 13.0 | 1.31× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $94.57 | 5.4% | 16 | 13.8 | 1.16× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 10.4% | $83.39 | 5.4% | 17 | 15.7 | 1.08× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 10.4% | $83.18 | 5.4% | 14 | 15.7 | 0.89× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 11.6% | $78.23 | 5.7% | 14 | 17.5 | 0.80× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/953282`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%3A%29) $180 $1,023 5.68x 2026-11-04 01:08 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $180 $712 3.96x 2026-11-06 16:07 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) [Czapa 1 lvl Faceit](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Czapa%201%20lvl%20Faceit) $180 $712 3.96x 2026-11-04 21:49 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $180 $712 3.96x 2026-11-04 18:33 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $180 $642 3.57x 2026-11-04 01:06 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $180 $642 3.57x 2026-11-03 15:00 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $180 $578 3.21x 2026-11-05 18:19 UTC

[★ Karambit | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $180 $576 3.20x 2026-11-03 16:32 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $180 $515 2.86x 2026-11-11 01:26 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=953282)

[★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $180 $83.18 0.46x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $180 $94.57 0.53x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $180 $83.18 0.46x 2026-11-11 15:01 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $180 $78.23 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $180 $116 0.65x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-minimal-wear) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $180 $116 0.65x 2026-11-11 14:15 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-well-worn) Hidden $180 $119 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-battle-scarred) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $180 $78.23 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $180 $83.39 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-field-tested) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $180 $101 0.56x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $180 | 89.14% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #ffd700 0.1% covert 80.0% gold 10.1% rare 1.0% covert knife 8.7% best hit $1,023 (5.68x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.14 on average: an expected loss of $10.86 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt