---
title: "Stop case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Stop ($5.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.01% from 34 items with odds, observed 89.37% over 16K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/956658
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Stop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/956658)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Stop

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/956658?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/956658?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/956658) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/956658?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 89.01% · EV $4.45 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.37% · 16K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.46% ±8.01 2,078 openings

7 days · 90.48% ±3.14 13.5K openings

30 days · 89.37% ±2.88 16K openings

since tracking started · 89.37% ±2.88 16K openings

74.0% 84.3% 94.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/956658?window=24h) | 2,078 | 82.46% ±8.01 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/956658?window=7d) | 13.5K | 90.48% ±3.14 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/956658) | 16K | 89.37% ±2.88 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/956658?window=all) | 16K | 89.37% ±2.88 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 3,448 | $237 | 1.5% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.07× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,273 | $156 | 1.5% | 7 | 7.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,389 | $95.07 | 1.5% | 11 | 11.6 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 1 in 1,250 | $85.36 | 1.5% | 15 | 12.9 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 1,020 | $69.55 | 1.5% | 16 | 15.8 | 1.01× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 840 | $57.45 | 1.5% | 29 | 19.2 | 1.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 752 | $51.46 | 1.5% | 21 | 21.4 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 301 | $46.67 | 3.5% | 66 | 53.5 | 1.23× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 282 | $43.70 | 3.5% | 53 | 57.2 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 253 | $39.14 | 3.5% | 59 | 63.8 | 0.92× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 192 | $29.82 | 3.5% | 76 | 83.8 | 0.91× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $20.15 | 3.5% | 125 | 123.9 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-well-worn) | 1 in 119 | $18.48 | 3.5% | 147 | 135.1 | 1.09× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 96 | $14.91 | 3.5% | 150 | 167.5 | 0.90× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $13.82 | 3.5% | 170 | 180.7 | 0.94× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-battle-scarred) | 1 in 86 | $13.33 | 3.5% | 159 | 187.3 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 86 | $13.27 | 3.5% | 187 | 188.1 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $10.26 | 6.6% | 451 | 458.0 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $9.58 | 6.6% | 478 | 490.5 | 0.97× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $8.48 | 6.6% | 574 | 554.0 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $6.86 | 6.6% | 683 | 684.9 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $6.70 | 6.6% | 709 | 701.2 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.84 | 6.6% | 811 | 804.4 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-zeus-x27-olympus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 76 | $4.82 | 1.4% | 216 | 213.1 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $3.89 | 1.4% | 254 | 264.0 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $3.74 | 1.4% | 266 | 274.6 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $3.69 | 1.4% | 297 | 278.3 | 1.07× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $3.31 | 1.4% | 319 | 310.2 | 1.03× |
| [Nova \| Wild Six (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $2.50 | 1.4% | 405 | 410.8 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $2.11 | 1.4% | 479 | 486.6 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $2.05 | 1.4% | 489 | 501.0 | 0.98× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 15.2% | $0.35 | 1.2% | 2,484 | 2454.5 | 1.01× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) | 17.2% | $0.31 | 1.2% | 2,738 | 2771.2 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-battle-scarred) | 19.4% | $0.28 | 1.2% | 3,159 | 3117.1 | 1.01× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/956658`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=956658)

[P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) [Mati -\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mati%20-_-) $5.00 $10.26 2.05x 2026-11-11 19:08 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-battle-scarred) [groszkin69.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/groszkin69.skins.army) $5.00 $0.28 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:08 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) [Voltimus](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Voltimus) $5.00 $5.84 1.17x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) [pussy-drillercase.gift](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/pussy-drillercase.gift) $5.00 $8.48 1.70x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 $8.48 1.70x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [pussy-drillercase.gift](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/pussy-drillercase.gift) $5.00 $0.35 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) [Zagniewany](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Zagniewany) $5.00 $6.70 1.34x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scrawl-field-tested) [groszkin69.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/groszkin69.skins.army) $5.00 $0.31 0.06x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $10.26 2.05x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) [SPENISON](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SPENISON) $5.00 $3.74 0.75x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $5.00 | 89.01% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.8% classified 9.2% red 0.4% pink 0.8% #d32ee6 9.0% restricted 8.6% #d32ce6 4.3% Legendary 5.0% #4b69ff 21.0% #8847ff 6.7% Mythical 1.7% mil spec 15.2% Rare 17.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.01 on average: an expected loss of $10.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt