---
title: "Glacial goal case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Glacial goal ($25.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.88% from 20 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968171
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Glacial goal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968171)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Glacial goal

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968171?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968171?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968171) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968171?window=all)

Price · $25.00

Advertised RTP · 88.88% · EV $22.22 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968171?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968171?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968171) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968171?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 885 | $441 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 617 | $308 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 417 | $208 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 318 | $159 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 268 | $134 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 94 | $97.00 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 88 | $91.10 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 82 | $85.45 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $70.51 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $62.30 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $55.25 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $52.01 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $46.65 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $46.47 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $40.92 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $40.01 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $30.31 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $26.22 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $25.38 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 62.8% | $5.82 | 16.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/968171`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=968171)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $25.00 | 88.88% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 15.1% restricted 4.2% red 67.1% classified 9.5% #4b69ff 4.2%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.88 on average: an expected loss of $11.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt