---
title: "Freestyle frost case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Freestyle frost ($75.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.82% from 32 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968186
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Freestyle frost](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968186)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Freestyle frost

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968186?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968186?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968186) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968186?window=all)

Price · $75.00

Advertised RTP · 88.82% · EV $66.62 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968186?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968186?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968186) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/968186?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 840 | $2,262 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 680 | $1,830 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 495 | $1,331 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 394 | $1,058 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 300 | $808 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 195 | $709 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $535 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 97 | $355 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $188 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $155 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $152 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $131 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $125 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $108 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $99.33 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $93.99 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $79.67 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $75.06 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-factory-new) | 1 in 266 | $70.51 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 201 | $53.32 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 176 | $46.65 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $25.16 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $17.34 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $7.28 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $6.30 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $5.37 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $0.97 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.74 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.57 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $0.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.35 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-field-tested) | 18.8% | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/968186`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=968186)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $75.00 | 88.82% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 19.4% Covert 0.1% extraordinary 7.6% classified 9.0% restricted 9.4% #eb4b4b 5.5% red 1.1% Legendary 4.2% pink 4.9% milspec 2.8% #4b69ff 22.5% #8847ff 5.6% mil spec 7.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.82 on average: an expected loss of $11.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt