---
title: "Neon Time case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Neon Time ($8.60) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.82% from 46 items with odds, observed 90.22% over 9,075 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/99
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Neon Time](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/99)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Neon Time

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/99?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/99?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/99) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/99?window=all)

Price · $8.60

Advertised RTP · 88.82% · EV $7.64 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.22% · 9,075 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 99.54% ±14.01 1,015 openings

7 days · 91.21% ±5.18 7,738 openings

30 days · 90.22% ±4.81 9,075 openings

since tracking started · 90.22% ±4.81 9,075 openings

85.0% 99.5% 114.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/99?window=24h) | 1,015 | 99.54% ±14.0 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/99?window=7d) | 7,738 | 91.21% ±5.18 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/99) | 9,075 | 90.22% ±4.81 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/99?window=all) | 9,075 | 90.22% ±4.81 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,092 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 3,704 | $415 | 1.5% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,564 | $291 | 1.5% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.69× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 2,222 | $254 | 1.5% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.22× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 1,923 | $219 | 1.5% | 6 | 4.7 | 1.27× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 1,887 | $215 | 1.5% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.25× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 1,724 | $198 | 1.5% | 1 | 5.3 | 0.19× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,724 | $195 | 1.5% | 8 | 5.3 | 1.52× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 1,266 | $144 | 1.5% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 1,235 | $140 | 1.5% | 6 | 7.4 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,176 | $135 | 1.5% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,124 | $127 | 1.5% | 5 | 8.1 | 0.62× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $126 | 1.5% | 10 | 8.2 | 1.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 971 | $111 | 1.5% | 5 | 9.4 | 0.53× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 971 | $110 | 1.5% | 14 | 9.4 | 1.49× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $49.04 | 10.1% | 144 | 143.7 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $46.73 | 10.1% | 121 | 150.7 | 0.80× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $24.35 | 10.1% | 272 | 289.4 | 0.94× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $19.32 | 10.1% | 319 | 364.7 | 0.87× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $14.29 | 5.7% | 237 | 276.1 | 0.86× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $13.34 | 5.7% | 285 | 295.8 | 0.96× |
| [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $12.49 | 5.7% | 305 | 315.9 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Neon Ply (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-neon-ply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $11.19 | 5.7% | 332 | 352.6 | 0.94× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $9.54 | 5.7% | 336 | 413.6 | 0.81× |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-field-tested) | 1 in 179 | $8.13 | 0.6% | 186 | 50.7 | 3.67× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 162 | $7.37 | 0.6% | 209 | 56.0 | 3.73× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 157 | $7.13 | 0.6% | 59 | 57.9 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 140 | $6.37 | 0.6% | 58 | 64.7 | 0.90× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $5.92 | 0.6% | 64 | 69.7 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $5.26 | 0.6% | 86 | 78.5 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Neon Ply (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-neon-ply-battle-scarred) | 1 in 104 | $4.74 | 0.6% | 70 | 87.0 | 0.80× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $3.84 | 0.6% | 90 | 107.5 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $3.53 | 0.6% | 136 | 116.9 | 1.16× |
| [Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-flash-out-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $3.14 | 0.6% | 135 | 131.4 | 1.03× |
| [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $2.67 | 0.6% | 154 | 154.6 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $2.65 | 0.6% | 162 | 155.7 | 1.04× |
| [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $2.20 | 0.6% | 197 | 187.6 | 1.05× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $1.64 | 0.2% | 106 | 104.2 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $1.06 | 0.2% | 157 | 161.3 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $0.89 | 0.2% | 215 | 192.0 | 1.12× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $0.61 | 0.2% | 312 | 280.2 | 1.11× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.54 | 0.2% | 335 | 316.5 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Bioleak (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-bioleak-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.32 | 0.2% | 610 | 534.2 | 1.14× |
| [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.28 | 0.2% | 592 | 610.4 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.20 | 0.2% | 764 | 854.6 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ol-rusty-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $0.19 | 0.2% | 819 | 899.7 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-field-tested) | 12.4% | $0.15 | 0.2% | 1,142 | 1130.7 | 1.01× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/99`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=99)

[StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-field-tested) Hidden $8.60 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) [BaBuLa](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/BaBuLa) $8.60 $0.54 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[MP7 | Neon Ply (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-factory-new) Hidden $8.60 $12.49 1.45x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-minimal-wear) [Shiguma.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Shiguma.skins.army) $8.60 $0.20 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.60 $0.20 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.60 $19.32 2.25x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) Hidden $8.60 $9.54 1.11x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[FAMAS | Djinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-minimal-wear) [G-E-I-T](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/G-E-I-T) $8.60 $14.29 1.66x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) Hidden $8.60 $0.89 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ol-rusty-well-worn) Hidden $8.60 $0.19 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $8.60 | 88.82% | 46 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $8.60 | 88.86% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 1.1% covert 2.2% restricted 10.3% #eb4b4b 0.1% red 0.2% classified 10.3% #d32ee6 7.0% #8847ff 11.8% Mythical 4.5% industrial 0.6% pink 1.8% Legendary 0.7% mil spec 1.4% Rare 3.5% #4b69ff 34.9% blue 9.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.82 on average: an expected loss of $11.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt