---
title: "Admin case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Admin ($2.45) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.01% from 35 items with odds, observed 87.35% over 1,600 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/admin-ggdrop
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Admin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/admin-ggdrop)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Admin

A case on GGDROP (admin), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/admin-ggdrop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/admin-ggdrop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/admin-ggdrop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/admin-ggdrop?window=all)

Price · $2.45

Advertised RTP · 92.01% · EV $2.25 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.35% · 1,600 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.31% ±12.12 261 openings

7 days · 86.73% ±5.04 1,436 openings

30 days · 87.35% ±4.77 1,600 openings

since tracking started · 87.35% ±4.77 1,600 openings

72.5% 85.3% 98.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/admin-ggdrop?window=24h) | 261 | 85.31% ±12.1 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/admin-ggdrop?window=7d) | 1,436 | 86.73% ±5.04 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/admin-ggdrop) | 1,600 | 87.35% ±4.77 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/admin-ggdrop?window=all) | 1,600 | 87.35% ±4.77 | −1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,600 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,556 | $18.76 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Safecracker Voltzmann \| The Professionals agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/safecracker-voltzmann-the-professionals) | 1 in 847 | $17.75 | 0.9% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.12× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $16.85 | 4.0% | 3 | 8.6 | 0.35× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,857 | $16.78 | 0.3% | 5 | 0.6 | — |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 383 | $13.66 | 1.6% | 9 | 4.2 | 2.16× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-field-tested) | 1 in 102 | $13.25 | 5.8% | 5 | 15.7 | 0.32× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 148 | $9.27 | 2.8% | 10 | 10.8 | 0.92× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 217 | $6.38 | 1.3% | 16 | 7.4 | 2.17× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $6.28 | 4.2% | 19 | 24.3 | 0.78× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $5.93 | 4.3% | 24 | 26.1 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $5.79 | 4.5% | 12 | 28.2 | 0.43× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 128 | $5.12 | 1.8% | 18 | 12.5 | 1.44× |
| [MAC-10 \| Tatter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $5.03 | 2.9% | 20 | 20.9 | 0.95× |
| [P90 \| ScaraB Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $5.02 | 3.6% | 24 | 26.0 | 0.92× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $4.28 | 3.7% | 26 | 31.4 | 0.83× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $3.63 | 3.3% | 31 | 32.9 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $3.28 | 3.4% | 33 | 37.7 | 0.88× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $3.22 | 4.1% | 41 | 46.0 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $3.05 | 3.2% | 35 | 37.5 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $3.03 | 3.2% | 37 | 38.4 | 0.96× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $2.71 | 2.7% | 41 | 35.3 | 1.16× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $2.67 | 2.9% | 56 | 38.5 | 1.45× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) | 1 in 35 | $2.50 | 3.2% | 38 | 46.0 | 0.83× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $2.33 | 3.6% | 47 | 55.4 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $2.08 | 3.2% | 59 | 56.2 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $1.92 | 3.6% | 79 | 67.6 | 1.17× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $1.34 | 3.1% | 88 | 84.2 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.98 | 2.7% | 123 | 97.5 | 1.26× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipsqueak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.98 | 2.7% | 106 | 98.0 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.97 | 2.7% | 93 | 101.0 | 0.92× |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.94 | 2.9% | 77 | 111.8 | 0.69× |
| [PP-Bizon \| RMX (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.90 | 2.3% | 98 | 90.7 | 1.08× |
| [MP9 \| Nexus (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.75 | 1.7% | 81 | 81.8 | 0.99× |
| [Charm \| That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) | 1 in 16 | $0.66 | 1.9% | 103 | 102.2 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.55 | 1.9% | 139 | 122.5 | 1.13× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/admin-ggdrop`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=admin-ggdrop)

[P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) [BABAYKA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/BABAYKA) $2.45 $0.95 0.39x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[P90 | ScaraB Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-scarab-rush-battle-scarred) [moNic](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/moNic) $2.45 $5.02 2.05x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[Charm | That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) [moNic](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/moNic) $2.45 $0.66 0.27x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[AUG | Momentum (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-well-worn) [CARCAHİL ADAM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CARCAH%C4%B0L%20ADAM) $2.45 $5.94 2.42x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC

[P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) [CARCAHİL ADAM](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CARCAH%C4%B0L%20ADAM) $2.45 $0.95 0.39x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC

[P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) [B0RAT](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/B0RAT) $2.45 $0.55 0.22x 2026-11-11 11:40 UTC

[MAC-10 | Pipsqueak (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipsqueak-minimal-wear) [ДРЕЛЬ](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%94%D0%A0%D0%95%D0%9B%D0%AC) $2.45 $0.98 0.40x 2026-11-11 11:16 UTC

[SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) [D.Vla.M](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/D.Vla.M) $2.45 $1.34 0.55x 2026-11-11 10:28 UTC

[P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) [D.Vla.M](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/D.Vla.M) $2.45 $0.55 0.22x 2026-11-11 10:28 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-battle-scarred) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $2.45 $5.16 2.11x 2026-11-11 10:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $2.45 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $2.45 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $2.45 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.45 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $2.45 | 92.03% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $2.45 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $2.45 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $2.45 | 92.10% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.45 | 92.02% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $2.45 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $2.45 | 92.00% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 4.2% pink 5.7% rare 0.5% Legendary 1.4% #d32ee6 0.7% industrial 1.8% #8847ff 12.4% restricted 7.7% mil spec 9.9% milspec 8.5% Mil Spec Grade 2.4% uncommon 9.3% violet 15.3% Rare 8.6% Mythical 6.1% blue 5.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.01 on average: an expected loss of $7.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt