---
title: "Afterparty case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Afterparty ($1.19) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.09% from 28 items with odds, observed 110.11% over 1,619 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/afterparty
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Afterparty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/afterparty)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Afterparty

A case on GGDROP (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/afterparty?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/afterparty?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/afterparty) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/afterparty?window=all)

Price · $1.19

Advertised RTP · 92.09% · EV $1.10 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 110.11% · 1,619 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 112.71% ±12.31 277 openings

7 days · 110.01% ±5.38 1,441 openings

30 days · 110.11% ±5.08 1,619 openings

since tracking started · 110.11% ±5.08 1,619 openings

91.5% 108.5% 125.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.03% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (105.02% – 115.19%, 1,619 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/afterparty?window=24h) | 277 | 112.71% ±12.3 | +3.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/afterparty?window=7d) | 1,441 | 110.01% ±5.38 | +6.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/afterparty) | 1,619 | 110.11% ±5.08 | +7.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/afterparty?window=all) | 1,619 | 110.11% ±5.08 | +7.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,619 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $10.14 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $9.98 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 5,556 | $9.31 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $9.15 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $7.40 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $6.90 | 0.1% | 4 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 541 | $6.33 | 1.1% | 7 | 3.0 | 2.34× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $5.84 | 5.1% | 7 | 15.4 | 0.45× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 104 | $5.57 | 4.9% | 13 | 15.5 | 0.84× |
| [P90 \| Attack Vector (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $5.49 | 6.1% | 16 | 19.6 | 0.82× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-well-worn) | 1 in 78 | $3.62 | 4.3% | 29 | 20.9 | 1.39× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-seasons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $3.47 | 5.7% | 48 | 29.0 | 1.65× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $3.10 | 6.3% | 34 | 36.1 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $3.02 | 6.2% | 65 | 36.5 | 1.78× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-survivor-z-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $2.03 | 5.3% | 65 | 46.6 | 1.39× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $1.99 | 7.1% | 70 | 62.9 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-block-18-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $1.58 | 6.0% | 106 | 67.3 | 1.57× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $1.54 | 7.3% | 107 | 84.0 | 1.27× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.20 | 4.9% | 106 | 73.1 | 1.45× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.98 | 6.0% | 121 | 109.5 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-etch-lord-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.85 | 4.7% | 141 | 97.3 | 1.45× |
| [Nova \| Ocular (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ocular-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.66 | 4.9% | 142 | 130.9 | 1.08× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.46 | 3.4% | 171 | 130.0 | 1.32× |
| [Nova \| Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.43 | 3.3% | 193 | 134.5 | 1.43× |
| [M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.33 | 2.6% | 169 | 141.4 | 1.20× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $0.23 | 1.8% | 0 | 138.2 | 0.00× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $0.20 | 1.2% | 0 | 108.8 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Nexus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-nexus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.19 | 1.3% | 0 | 117.0 | 0.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/afterparty`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=afterparty)

[Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ocular-field-tested) [Twin2rbo](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Twin2rbo) $1.19 $0.66 0.55x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $1.19 $0.46 0.39x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $1.19 $0.46 0.39x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-etch-lord-battle-scarred) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $1.19 $0.86 0.72x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) [ONETAP\[ARIZA\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ONETAP%5BARIZA%5D) $1.19 $2.00 1.68x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Survivor Z (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-survivor-z-minimal-wear) [Bockresenie](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Bockresenie) $1.19 $1.98 1.66x 2026-11-11 16:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-etch-lord-battle-scarred) [Maroško Ide Riešiť](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Maro%C5%A1ko%20Ide%20Rie%C5%A1i%C5%A5) $1.19 $0.86 0.72x 2026-11-11 16:09 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-field-tested) [Tamara Romanova](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Tamara%20Romanova) $1.19 $0.46 0.39x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC

[Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ocular-field-tested) [Tamara Romanova](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Tamara%20Romanova) $1.19 $0.66 0.55x 2026-11-11 15:43 UTC

[Nova | Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-factory-new) [Kratos](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Kratos) $1.19 $0.43 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $1.19 | 92.09% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $1.19 | 92.07% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.19 | 92.08% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1.19 | 92.06% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.19 | 92.06% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $1.19 | 92.09% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $1.19 | 92.08% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.19 | 92.01% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $1.19 | 92.08% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.19 | 92.02% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.19 | 92.07% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.19 | 92.09% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #d32ce6 0.0% Classified 0.0% classified 1.0% pink 1.2% restricted 17.3% uncommon 1.2% #d32ee6 1.3% Restricted 1.8% milspec 11.8% #8847ff 10.9% violet 12.5% Mythical 8.1% Common 8.3% industrial 8.7% Uncommon 8.5% blue 7.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.09 on average: an expected loss of $7.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt