---
title: "BearBrick case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "BearBrick ($9.00) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.92% from 28 items with odds, observed 90.77% over 1,284 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bearbrick
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [BearBrick](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bearbrick)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · BearBrick

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bearbrick?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bearbrick?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bearbrick) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bearbrick?window=all)

Price · $9.00

Advertised RTP · 91.92% · EV $8.27 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.77% · 1,284 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.44% ±12.39 148 openings

7 days · 90.52% ±4.64 1,064 openings

30 days · 90.77% ±4.22 1,284 openings

since tracking started · 90.77% ±4.22 1,284 openings

80.5% 93.5% 106.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bearbrick?window=24h) | 148 | 93.44% ±12.4 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bearbrick?window=7d) | 1,064 | 90.52% ±4.64 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bearbrick) | 1,284 | 90.77% ±4.22 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bearbrick?window=all) | 1,284 | 90.77% ±4.22 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,285 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $30.40 | 11.5% | 36 | 40.1 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-head-shot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $26.20 | 8.7% | 34 | 35.1 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $25.44 | 7.4% | 38 | 30.7 | 1.24× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $14.09 | 5.8% | 33 | 43.9 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $13.42 | 5.2% | 35 | 41.0 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $13.23 | 6.0% | 47 | 47.9 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $12.23 | 5.7% | 48 | 49.1 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $11.64 | 2.6% | 26 | 23.3 | 1.12× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $11.27 | 2.3% | 24 | 21.8 | 1.10× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $11.10 | 3.0% | 34 | 28.4 | 1.20× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $10.27 | 3.1% | 29 | 31.9 | 0.91× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $9.58 | 2.8% | 28 | 31.2 | 0.90× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $8.20 | 3.0% | 42 | 39.5 | 1.06× |
| ['Two Times' McCoy \| TACP Cavalry agent · superior](https://gambatracker.com/items/two-times-mccoy-tacp-cavalry) | 1 in 39 | $7.65 | 2.4% | 38 | 33.2 | 1.14× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $7.38 | 3.4% | 32 | 48.7 | 0.66× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $7.35 | 3.0% | 39 | 42.9 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $7.12 | 2.1% | 31 | 31.7 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $6.38 | 2.0% | 42 | 33.8 | 1.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $6.29 | 2.3% | 37 | 38.1 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $6.15 | 2.4% | 44 | 42.0 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $5.27 | 2.7% | 51 | 55.3 | 0.92× |
| [MP7 \| Vault Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $4.75 | 2.6% | 53 | 57.6 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $3.03 | 2.0% | 72 | 69.5 | 1.04× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $2.93 | 2.3% | 88 | 83.4 | 1.06× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $2.75 | 2.2% | 80 | 83.9 | 0.95× |
| [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $2.40 | 2.0% | 100 | 89.2 | 1.12× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $2.05 | 1.2% | 61 | 60.2 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.32 | 0.6% | 63 | 51.6 | 1.22× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/bearbrick`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=bearbrick)

[MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-well-worn) [Mariskaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mariskaa) $9.00 $2.37 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) [Mariskaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mariskaa) $9.00 $3.03 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) [Cabiseeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Cabiseeek) $9.00 $2.04 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) [Matie\`Bal](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Matie%60Bal) $9.00 $2.04 0.23x 2026-11-11 11:45 UTC

[FAMAS | Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-battle-scarred) [Urpa2k19](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Urpa2k19) $9.00 $2.92 0.32x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) [♛ 𝕂𝕖𝕟𝕥 ♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E2%99%9B%20%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%96%F0%9D%95%9F%F0%9D%95%A5%20%E2%99%9B) $9.00 $5.25 0.58x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC

[SG 553 | Colony IV (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-well-worn) [♛ 𝕂𝕖𝕟𝕥 ♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E2%99%9B%20%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%96%F0%9D%95%9F%F0%9D%95%A5%20%E2%99%9B) $9.00 $9.56 1.06x 2026-11-11 11:07 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) [fu4ik](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/fu4ik) $9.00 $12.27 1.36x 2026-11-11 09:47 UTC

[M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) [StuntCoordinator](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/StuntCoordinator) $9.00 $1.32 0.15x 2026-11-11 09:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) [Dopexsoudie00](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Dopexsoudie00) $9.00 $7.12 0.79x 2026-11-11 09:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $9.00 | 91.92% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $9.00 | 91.93% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $9.00 | 91.96% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $9.00 | 91.93% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $9.00 | 91.90% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $9.00 | 91.93% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $9.00 | 91.91% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $9.00 | 91.90% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $9.00 | 91.91% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $9.00 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $9.00 | 91.95% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $9.00 | 91.91% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $9.00 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $9.00 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $9.00 | 91.93% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $9.00 | 91.91% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $9.00 | 91.93% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $9.00 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $9.00 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $9.00 | 91.94% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $9.00 | 91.93% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $9.00 | 91.97% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $9.00 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $9.00 | 91.91% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $9.00 | 91.92% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $9.00 | 91.93% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $9.00 | 91.92% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $9.00 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $9.00 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $9.00 | 92.00% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #eb4b4b 5.9% covert 2.4% classified 25.6% restricted 15.8% Mil Spec Grade 8.5% superior 2.6% Legendary 5.9% #d32ee6 3.0% Classified 4.3% Uncommon 4.5% #8847ff 6.5% Rare 6.5% Restricted 4.7% violet 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.92 on average: an expected loss of $8.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt