---
title: "Black Pearl case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Black Pearl ($1,515.00) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 24 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/black-pearl-premium
rendered: 2026-11-12T15:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/black-pearl-premium)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Black Pearl

A case on GGDROP (premium), first seen 12 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/black-pearl-premium?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/black-pearl-premium?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/black-pearl-premium) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/black-pearl-premium?window=all)

Price · $1,515.00

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $1,393.80 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/black-pearl-premium?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/black-pearl-premium?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/black-pearl-premium) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/black-pearl-premium?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 7,692 | $15.1K | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 166 | $9,958 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 93 | $7,758 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 263 | $5,676 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 85 | $4,888 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 60 | $4,699 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 43 | $3,119 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 39 | $2,952 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 28 | $2,637 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 41 | $2,481 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 33 | $2,319 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 28 | $2,111 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 21 | $1,561 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · gold · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 17 | $1,165 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 14 | $1,093 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 17 | $1,027 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · #ffd700 · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 25 | $946 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · Knives · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 22 | $845 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 18 | $825 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 16 | $651 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 15 | $620 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 11 | $612 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 13 | $562 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 10.1% | $551 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/black-pearl-premium`, 12 Nov, 14:58 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=black-pearl-premium)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 14:58 UTC | $1,515 | 92.00% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 60.3% legendary 21.7% other 3.6% gold 5.8% #ffd700 4.0% Knives 4.5%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt