---
title: "Bloody Mary case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Bloody Mary ($0.49) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.09% from 35 items with odds, observed 131.88% over 55.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bloody-mary-helloween
rendered: 2026-11-12T07:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Bloody Mary](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bloody-mary-helloween)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Bloody Mary

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bloody-mary-helloween?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bloody-mary-helloween?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bloody-mary-helloween) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bloody-mary-helloween?window=all)

Price · $0.49

Advertised RTP · 92.09% · EV $0.45 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 131.88% · 55.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 131.00% ±3.27 5,156 openings

7 days · 131.11% ±1.06 46.9K openings

30 days · 131.88% ±0.98 55.8K openings

since tracking started · 131.88% ±0.98 55.8K openings

91.5% 113.3% 135.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (130.91% – 132.86%, 55,792 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bloody-mary-helloween?window=24h) | 5,156 | 131.00% ±3.27 | +23.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bloody-mary-helloween?window=7d) | 46.9K | 131.11% ±1.06 | +72.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bloody-mary-helloween) | 55.8K | 131.88% ±0.98 | +79.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bloody-mary-helloween?window=all) | 55.8K | 131.88% ±0.98 | +79.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 55.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,143 | $11.75 | 0.4% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $9.93 | 0.2% | 19 | 5.6 | 3.41× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,263 | $9.74 | 0.4% | 34 | 10.6 | 3.21× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $6.53 | 0.1% | 161 | 5.6 | 28.85× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 980 | $5.06 | 1.1% | 197 | 56.9 | 3.46× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 113 | $4.10 | 8.0% | 429 | 492.1 | 0.87× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-well-worn) | 1 in 93 | $2.79 | 6.7% | 884 | 602.1 | 1.47× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 129 | $1.84 | 3.2% | 1,131 | 431.3 | 2.62× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $1.24 | 4.4% | 1,653 | 885.0 | 1.87× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $0.93 | 4.7% | 2,146 | 1281.1 | 1.68× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $0.79 | 4.8% | 2,473 | 1521.6 | 1.63× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $0.75 | 3.5% | 2,950 | 1165.1 | 2.53× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.71 | 3.9% | 2,583 | 1387.1 | 1.86× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $0.69 | 3.4% | 2,350 | 1247.1 | 1.88× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $0.61 | 2.5% | 2,061 | 1023.3 | 2.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $0.58 | 2.1% | 2,024 | 917.9 | 2.21× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $0.55 | 2.5% | 2,236 | 1140.0 | 1.96× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.55 | 3.1% | 1,996 | 1422.8 | 1.40× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.50 | 2.8% | 2,335 | 1421.2 | 1.64× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-calligraffiti-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.46 | 2.7% | 3,001 | 1482.6 | 2.02× |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $0.38 | 2.4% | 2,677 | 1602.5 | 1.67× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $0.37 | 3.1% | 3,127 | 2124.2 | 1.47× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.36 | 2.6% | 2,674 | 1792.2 | 1.49× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.34 | 2.7% | 3,307 | 2007.1 | 1.65× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.34 | 2.7% | 3,128 | 1962.4 | 1.59× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.32 | 2.3% | 1,984 | 1817.3 | 1.09× |
| [SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $0.32 | 2.0% | 3,038 | 1599.2 | 1.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-operative-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.31 | 2.3% | 3,013 | 1863.7 | 1.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.27 | 2.2% | 2,129 | 2018.8 | 1.05× |
| [MP9 \| Broken Record (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-broken-record-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.25 | 2.5% | 0 | 2479.7 | 0.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.21 | 2.9% | 0 | 3516.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.21 | 3.1% | 0 | 3658.1 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.19 | 2.9% | 51 | 3845.6 | 0.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.18 | 3.1% | 0 | 4315.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.15 | 2.8% | 0 | 4688.7 | 0.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/bloody-mary-helloween`, 12 Nov, 02:50 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=bloody-mary-helloween)

[Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) [Bobi\_VaN\_basten\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Bobi_VaN_basten_) $0.49 $0.79 1.61x 2026-11-12 07:47 UTC

[M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-minimal-wear) [Oogway](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Oogway) $0.49 $0.34 0.69x 2026-11-12 07:46 UTC

[USP-S | Alpine Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-field-tested) [Oogway](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Oogway) $0.49 $0.34 0.69x 2026-11-12 07:46 UTC

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [Oogway](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Oogway) $0.49 $0.32 0.65x 2026-11-12 07:46 UTC

[SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-factory-new) [4iZ s BiKonom GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/4iZ%20s%20BiKonom%20GGDROP) $0.49 $0.34 0.69x 2026-11-12 07:37 UTC

[Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [JunyaWatanabe](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/JunyaWatanabe) $0.49 $0.32 0.65x 2026-11-12 07:32 UTC

[USP-S | Silent Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-field-tested) [𝙳𝙷𝚉𝙾](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%F0%9D%99%B3%F0%9D%99%B7%F0%9D%9A%89%F0%9D%99%BE) $0.49 $0.37 0.76x 2026-11-12 07:16 UTC

[USP-S | Silent Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-field-tested) [𝙳𝙷𝚉𝙾](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%F0%9D%99%B3%F0%9D%99%B7%F0%9D%9A%89%F0%9D%99%BE) $0.49 $0.37 0.76x 2026-11-12 07:14 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) [𝙳𝙷𝚉𝙾](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%F0%9D%99%B3%F0%9D%99%B7%F0%9D%9A%89%F0%9D%99%BE) $0.49 $0.74 1.51x 2026-11-12 07:14 UTC

[M4A4 | Dark Operative (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-operative-well-worn) [𝙳𝙷𝚉𝙾](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%F0%9D%99%B3%F0%9D%99%B7%F0%9D%9A%89%F0%9D%99%BE) $0.49 $0.32 0.65x 2026-11-12 07:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:50 UTC | $0.49 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 20:46 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $0.49 | 92.04% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $0.49 | 92.02% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $0.49 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $0.49 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $0.49 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $0.49 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $0.49 | 92.09% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 1.1% classified 0.0% Legendary 0.1% #d32ee6 0.9% restricted 6.3% violet 9.1% Mythical 6.9% uncommon 2.5% #4b69ff 16.9% Rare 17.5% milspec 14.3% blue 21.2% mil spec 3.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.09 on average: an expected loss of $7.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt