---
title: "Bonus case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Bonus ($21.35) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 42 items with odds, observed 87.60% over 1,484 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bonus-ggdrop
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Bonus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bonus-ggdrop)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Bonus

A case on GGDROP (admin), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bonus-ggdrop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bonus-ggdrop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bonus-ggdrop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bonus-ggdrop?window=all)

Price · $21.35

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $19.64 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.60% · 1,484 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 102.35% ±14.50 152 openings

7 days · 87.22% ±5.08 1,247 openings

30 days · 87.60% ±4.65 1,484 openings

since tracking started · 87.60% ±4.65 1,484 openings

81.5% 99.5% 117.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bonus-ggdrop?window=24h) | 152 | 102.35% ±14.5 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bonus-ggdrop?window=7d) | 1,247 | 87.22% ±5.08 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bonus-ggdrop) | 1,484 | 87.60% ±4.65 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/bonus-ggdrop?window=all) | 1,484 | 87.60% ±4.65 | −1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,484 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 248 | $96.04 | 2.0% | 2 | 6.0 | 0.33× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 204 | $95.38 | 2.4% | 4 | 7.3 | 0.55× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 245 | $91.67 | 1.9% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.66× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Chocolate Chesterfield (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-chocolate-chesterfield-well-worn) | 1 in 197 | $91.48 | 2.4% | 5 | 7.5 | 0.66× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 243 | $90.45 | 1.9% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.82× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Boo charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-boo) | 1 in 262 | $88.45 | 1.7% | 3 | 5.7 | 0.53× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-dragon-fists-battle-scarred) | 1 in 236 | $87.76 | 1.9% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.95× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 153 | $75.50 | 2.5% | 7 | 9.7 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $62.44 | 2.2% | 17 | 10.3 | 1.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $61.98 | 3.0% | 12 | 14.0 | 0.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $59.29 | 3.5% | 17 | 17.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-battle-scarred) | 1 in 94 | $52.09 | 2.8% | 12 | 15.8 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 123 | $48.42 | 2.0% | 8 | 12.1 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $44.32 | 3.3% | 15 | 21.4 | 0.70× |
| [Sir Bloody Darryl Royale \| The Professionals agent · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-darryl-royale-the-professionals) | 1 in 71 | $42.88 | 3.1% | 21 | 20.9 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $40.45 | 2.9% | 25 | 21.2 | 1.18× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $40.19 | 3.0% | 20 | 21.8 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 82 | $40.07 | 2.5% | 21 | 18.0 | 1.16× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $35.60 | 2.7% | 23 | 22.5 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $30.17 | 2.5% | 20 | 24.3 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $29.92 | 2.7% | 28 | 26.5 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Falak (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $24.95 | 2.9% | 35 | 34.4 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $24.57 | 3.1% | 33 | 36.6 | 0.90× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $23.35 | 2.2% | 14 | 27.2 | 0.51× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $23.30 | 2.8% | 34 | 34.8 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $23.23 | 1.9% | 37 | 23.9 | 1.55× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $21.83 | 2.2% | 28 | 30.0 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $21.41 | 2.1% | 28 | 28.0 | 1.00× |
| [Crasswater The Forgotten \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/crasswater-the-forgotten-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 39 | $18.90 | 2.4% | 38 | 37.6 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $18.15 | 2.9% | 49 | 45.8 | 1.07× |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $14.22 | 2.6% | 58 | 53.4 | 1.09× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $13.94 | 2.9% | 73 | 61.2 | 1.19× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $13.31 | 2.9% | 68 | 63.3 | 1.07× |
| [Chem-Haz Specialist \| SWAT agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/chem-haz-specialist-swat) | 1 in 20 | $10.23 | 2.6% | 65 | 75.3 | 0.86× |
| [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $9.74 | 2.0% | 68 | 59.1 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $8.85 | 2.1% | 62 | 70.4 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| ISOxo, inhuman music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-isoxo-inhuman) | 1 in 18 | $8.37 | 2.3% | 68 | 81.4 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $8.27 | 1.8% | 94 | 65.1 | 1.44× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $6.10 | 1.4% | 72 | 65.7 | 1.10× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $5.88 | 1.6% | 79 | 77.2 | 1.02× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $5.01 | 1.6% | 90 | 92.6 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $1.89 | 0.8% | 116 | 120.8 | 0.96× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/bonus-ggdrop`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=bonus-ggdrop)

[USP-S | Silent Shot (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-factory-new) [B4KOL CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/B4KOL%20CS2.ME) $21.35 $1.95 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) [1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/1) $21.35 $8.87 0.42x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) [꧁•ᴮᴬᴰʙᴏʏツ™♡](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%EA%A7%81%E2%80%A2%E1%B4%AE%E1%B4%AC%E1%B4%B0%CA%99%E1%B4%8F%CA%8F%E3%83%84%E2%84%A2%E2%99%A1) $21.35 $62.30 2.92x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | ISOxo, inhuman music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-isoxo-inhuman) [꧁•ᴮᴬᴰʙᴏʏツ™♡](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%EA%A7%81%E2%80%A2%E1%B4%AE%E1%B4%AC%E1%B4%B0%CA%99%E1%B4%8F%CA%8F%E3%83%84%E2%84%A2%E2%99%A1) $21.35 $8.36 0.39x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) [ProGameRR121](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ProGameRR121) $21.35 $62.04 2.91x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ Music Kit | ISOxo, inhuman music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-isoxo-inhuman) [slowe\_me2](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/slowe_me2) $21.35 $8.36 0.39x 2026-11-11 18:02 UTC

[AK-47 | The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) [slowe\_me2](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/slowe_me2) $21.35 $29.72 1.39x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-field-tested) [slowe\_me2](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/slowe_me2) $21.35 $59.33 2.78x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC

[Sir Bloody Darryl Royale | The Professionals agent · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-darryl-royale-the-professionals) [slowe\_me2](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/slowe_me2) $21.35 $42.74 2.00x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC

[MP7 | Smoking Kills (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-well-worn) [slowe\_me2](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/slowe_me2) $21.35 $5.04 0.24x 2026-11-11 17:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $21.35 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $21.35 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $21.35 | 91.96% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $21.35 | 91.94% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $21.35 | 91.90% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $21.35 | 91.90% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $21.35 | 91.94% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $21.35 | 91.99% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $21.35 | 91.90% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $21.35 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $21.35 | 91.93% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $21.35 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $21.35 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $21.35 | 91.98% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $21.35 | 91.98% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $21.35 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $21.35 | 91.99% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $21.35 | 91.90% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $21.35 | 91.98% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $21.35 | 91.93% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $21.35 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $21.35 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $21.35 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $21.35 | 91.94% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $21.35 | 91.92% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $21.35 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $21.35 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $21.35 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $21.35 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $21.35 | 92.00% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.4% covert 7.3% extraordinary 0.5% Ancient 1.8% rare 7.1% red 2.6% classified 14.6% #d32ce6 2.3% pink 14.8% Legendary 6.0% master 2.5% blue 8.2% restricted 3.6% #4b69ff 4.0% High Grade 5.5% #8847ff 4.4% uncommon 6.2% Rare 8.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt