---
title: "Boogeyman case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Boogeyman ($1.19) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 35 items with odds, observed 95.79% over 42K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/boogeyman-helloween
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Boogeyman](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/boogeyman-helloween)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Boogeyman

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/boogeyman-helloween?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/boogeyman-helloween?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/boogeyman-helloween) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/boogeyman-helloween?window=all)

Price · $1.19

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $1.09 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.79% · 42K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98.75% ±3.47 5,113 openings

7 days · 95.80% ±1.31 35K openings

30 days · 95.79% ±1.21 42K openings

since tracking started · 95.79% ±1.21 42K openings

91.5% 97.3% 103.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.58% – 97.00%, 41,980 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/boogeyman-helloween?window=24h) | 5,113 | 98.75% ±3.47 | +3.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/boogeyman-helloween?window=7d) | 35K | 95.80% ±1.31 | +5.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/boogeyman-helloween) | 42K | 95.79% ±1.21 | +6.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/boogeyman-helloween?window=all) | 42K | 95.79% ±1.21 | +6.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,263 | $30.46 | 0.5% | 11 | 8.0 | 1.38× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,250 | $25.92 | 0.4% | 10 | 6.7 | 1.49× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,143 | $20.37 | 0.3% | 24 | 5.9 | 4.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $17.75 | 0.3% | 30 | 6.7 | 4.46× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 392 | $13.84 | 3.2% | 92 | 107.1 | 0.86× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166 | $11.61 | 6.4% | 196 | 252.9 | 0.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 127 | $7.31 | 5.3% | 276 | 330.6 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 202 | $4.69 | 2.1% | 489 | 208.0 | 2.35× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $2.89 | 3.6% | 631 | 580.6 | 1.09× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $2.70 | 4.7% | 891 | 802.4 | 1.11× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $2.51 | 4.9% | 1,085 | 897.0 | 1.21× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $2.28 | 6.1% | 1,087 | 1234.3 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $1.70 | 2.5% | 894 | 684.4 | 1.31× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $1.65 | 3.3% | 1,046 | 914.2 | 1.14× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $1.59 | 4.0% | 1,094 | 1153.2 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $1.56 | 3.7% | 1,151 | 1096.9 | 1.05× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $1.38 | 2.3% | 830 | 771.8 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $1.30 | 2.5% | 973 | 878.5 | 1.11× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $1.20 | 2.6% | 1,179 | 992.3 | 1.19× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $1.18 | 3.1% | 1,029 | 1211.2 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $1.12 | 2.5% | 1,202 | 1025.1 | 1.17× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $0.96 | 2.4% | 1,292 | 1147.8 | 1.13× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $0.96 | 2.9% | 1,211 | 1365.8 | 0.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $0.92 | 2.6% | 1,402 | 1315.0 | 1.07× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.86 | 2.8% | 1,376 | 1495.6 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $0.80 | 2.4% | 1,368 | 1354.9 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.73 | 2.4% | 1,691 | 1519.2 | 1.11× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.66 | 2.5% | 1,879 | 1750.6 | 1.07× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.61 | 2.9% | 2,290 | 2220.8 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.52 | 2.6% | 2,349 | 2280.0 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.51 | 2.7% | 2,388 | 2451.8 | 0.97× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.46 | 2.5% | 2,654 | 2543.4 | 1.04× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.42 | 2.6% | 2,898 | 2819.8 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Off World (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.37 | 2.3% | 3,196 | 2835.0 | 1.13× |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.26 | 2.1% | 1,798 | 3744.5 | 0.48× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/boogeyman-helloween`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=boogeyman-helloween)

[Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) [KOTAKBAS](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/KOTAKBAS) $1.19 $1.38 1.16x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) [Janissary22](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Janissary22) $1.19 $0.52 0.44x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC

[Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) [Janissary22](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Janissary22) $1.19 $1.56 1.31x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) [S A 1 K U M](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/S%20A%201%20K%20U%20M) $1.19 $0.85 0.71x 2026-11-11 19:25 UTC

[P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) [Janissary22](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Janissary22) $1.19 $2.20 1.85x 2026-11-11 19:25 UTC

[P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) [Janissary22](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Janissary22) $1.19 $2.20 1.85x 2026-11-11 19:24 UTC

[Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-factory-new) [Janissary22](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Janissary22) $1.19 $0.51 0.43x 2026-11-11 19:23 UTC

[P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-minimal-wear) [karlin je nejvetsi buntovac](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/karlin%20je%20nejvetsi%20buntovac) $1.19 $0.46 0.39x 2026-11-11 19:23 UTC

[Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) [TechN9ne](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/TechN9ne) $1.19 $1.56 1.31x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Off World (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-well-worn) [TechN9ne](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/TechN9ne) $1.19 $0.37 0.31x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.19 | 92.04% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.19 | 92.00% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.0% classified 5.1% pink 4.4% #d32ce6 0.5% Classified 2.1% Mythical 17.2% restricted 25.7% #8847ff 8.3% violet 2.7% Rare 12.1% #4b69ff 6.1% milspec 6.7% blue 8.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt