---
title: "Operation Breakout Weapon Case on GGDROP: odds & RTP"
description: "Operation Breakout Weapon Case ($2.40) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.05% from 125 items with odds, observed 77.63% over 125 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/breakout
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Operation Breakout Weapon Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/breakout)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Operation Breakout Weapon Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/breakout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/breakout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/breakout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/breakout?window=all)

Price · $2.40

Advertised RTP · 92.05% · EV $2.21 from 125 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.63% · 125 openings, odds method

Variance · 20.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 18 openings · below min

7 days · 78.66% ±139.25 119 openings

30 days · 77.63% ±133.73 125 openings

since tracking started · 77.63% ±133.73 125 openings

-0.5% 137.0% 274.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/breakout?window=24h) | 18 | 59.79% ±214.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/breakout?window=7d) | 119 | 78.66% ±139.3 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/breakout) | 125 | 77.63% ±133.7 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/breakout?window=all) | 125 | 77.63% ±133.7 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 125 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $270 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 8,333 | $249 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $235 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $213 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,250 | $210 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $210 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $206 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $203 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,333 | $200 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $200 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $196 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 8,333 | $196 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $196 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $195 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 5,556 | $189 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $187 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $185 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $180 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $79.85 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $62.55 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $51.02 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $43.97 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $37.92 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $35.49 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $33.41 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $27.44 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $25.41 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,250 | $24.05 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $23.50 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $22.84 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $22.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $22.06 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $21.89 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $21.76 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $21.70 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $21.41 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $21.29 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $21.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $21.00 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,143 | $20.69 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,263 | $20.45 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $19.75 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,333 | $19.28 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $18.65 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $15.29 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Ivory (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-factory-new) | 1 in 826 | $9.98 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) | 1 in 160 | $9.70 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $6.76 | 2.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $4.53 | 2.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $4.49 | 3.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $4.33 | 3.5% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.23× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Koi (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 73 | $4.25 | 2.6% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.75× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $4.23 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-factory-new) | 1 in 217 | $4.16 | 0.9% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $3.99 | 1.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 431 | $3.72 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-well-worn) | 1 in 99 | $3.67 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.58× |
| [Nova \| Koi (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $3.66 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 174 | $3.23 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-osiris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 169 | $3.01 | 0.8% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $2.92 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ivory (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ivory-factory-new) | 1 in 73 | $2.89 | 1.8% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-osiris-well-worn) | 1 in 146 | $2.83 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-minimal-wear) | 1 in 493 | $2.77 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-well-worn) | 1 in 159 | $2.70 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-osiris-field-tested) | 1 in 262 | $2.69 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 175 | $2.62 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 163 | $2.62 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Nova \| Koi (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $2.60 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Koi (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-koi-field-tested) | 1 in 331 | $2.59 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-supernova-field-tested) | 1 in 169 | $2.59 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $2.54 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-well-worn) | 1 in 161 | $2.52 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $2.50 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 1 in 126 | $2.50 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $2.47 | 1.2% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.21× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $2.47 | 1.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $2.47 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-field-tested) | 1 in 127 | $2.43 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83 | $2.41 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-well-worn) | 1 in 101 | $2.41 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $2.29 | 1.6% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tigris-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $2.26 | 2.5% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-labyrinth-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $1.55 | 2.2% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.52× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1.19 | 2.1% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.19 | 2.2% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.14 | 2.3% | 1 | 5.7 | 0.18× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $1.07 | 2.6% | 9 | 6.7 | 1.35× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-desert-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $1.01 | 1.4% | 11 | 3.9 | 2.85× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.81 | 1.1% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-labyrinth-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $0.72 | 0.7% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.40× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-abyss-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $0.72 | 0.9% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-abyss-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $0.71 | 0.8% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.65× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Heavy](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $0.68 | 0.8% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ivory (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ivory-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $0.66 | 0.4% | 5 | 1.7 | 2.95× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Desert-Strike (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-desert-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 94 | $0.64 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.50× |
| [UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $0.59 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| [P2000 \| Ivory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $0.54 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-urban-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $0.54 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.47× |
| [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 102 | $0.53 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.63× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $0.53 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $0.51 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-urban-hazard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $0.51 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.92× |
| [UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $0.51 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.52× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 178 | $0.49 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-desert-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 201 | $0.47 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 114 | $0.46 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $0.45 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-labyrinth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $0.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ivory (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ivory-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $0.43 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Ivory (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-battle-scarred) | 1 in 153 | $0.42 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $0.42 | 0.2% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.77× |
| [P2000 \| Ivory (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $0.41 | 0.1% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 102 | $0.41 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-labyrinth-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $0.41 | 0.2% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.94× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $0.40 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $0.40 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $0.40 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Ivory (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $0.38 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $0.38 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $0.38 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× |
| [UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $0.38 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ivory (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ivory-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $0.37 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.53× |
| [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $0.37 | 0.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ivory (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ivory-well-worn) | 1 in 74 | $0.36 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/breakout`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=breakout)

[SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) [BABAYKA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/BABAYKA) $2.40 $1.09 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) [Katze im Panzer \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Katze%20im%20Panzer%20**********-1348897) $2.40 $1.19 0.50x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-desert-strike-battle-scarred) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $2.40 $1.01 0.42x 2026-11-11 00:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Osiris (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-osiris-field-tested) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $2.40 $2.67 1.11x 2026-11-11 00:47 UTC

[Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-factory-new) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $2.40 $0.52 0.22x 2026-11-11 00:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Ivory (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ivory-minimal-wear) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $2.40 $0.66 0.28x 2026-11-11 00:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-labyrinth-factory-new) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $2.40 $0.72 0.30x 2026-11-11 00:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-desert-strike-battle-scarred) [poizn](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/poizn) $2.40 $1.01 0.42x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-desert-strike-battle-scarred) [poizn](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/poizn) $2.40 $1.01 0.42x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC

[UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-factory-new) [poizn](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/poizn) $2.40 $0.50 0.21x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $2.40 | 92.05% | 125 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $2.40 | 92.04% | 125 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $2.40 | 92.03% | 125 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $2.40 | 92.08% | 125 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $2.40 | 92.05% | 125 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $2.40 | 92.09% | 125 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $2.40 | 92.01% | 125 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $2.40 | 92.07% | 125 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $2.40 | 92.10% | 125 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.40 | 92.06% | 125 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $2.40 | 92.08% | 125 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $2.40 | 92.04% | 125 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $2.40 | 92.08% | 125 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $2.40 | 92.09% | 125 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $2.40 | 92.07% | 125 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $2.40 | 92.08% | 125 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.40 | 92.09% | 125 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.40 | 92.10% | 125 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $2.40 | 92.02% | 125 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $2.40 | 92.08% | 125 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $2.40 | 92.04% | 125 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.40 | 92.07% | 125 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.40 | 92.02% | 125 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $2.40 | 92.03% | 125 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 1.9% covert 0.3% #eb4b4b 0.0% classified 0.3% Legendary 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% pink 0.0% #4b69ff 2.9% Rare 9.2% Mythical 9.3% restricted 13.5% mil spec 22.2% #8847ff 2.8% Mil Spec Grade 4.8% milspec 25.5% violet 0.6% #8847FF 1.6% Heavy 2.7% #4B69FF 1.4% Mil Spec 1.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.05 on average: an expected loss of $7.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt