---
title: "Charm case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Charm ($1.00) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 32 items with odds, observed 127.35% over 334 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/charm
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Charm](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/charm)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Charm

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/charm?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/charm?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/charm) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/charm?window=all)

Price · $1.00

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $0.92 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 127.35% · 334 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 27 openings · below min

7 days · 124.35% ±17.45 270 openings

30 days · 127.35% ±15.63 334 openings

since tracking started · 127.35% ±15.63 334 openings

74.5% 131.3% 188.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.01% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (111.72% – 142.98%, 334 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/charm?window=24h) | 27 | 131.33% ±56.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/charm?window=7d) | 270 | 124.35% ±17.4 | +3.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/charm) | 334 | 127.35% ±15.6 | +4.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/charm?window=all) | 334 | 127.35% ±15.6 | +4.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 334 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Charm \| Hot Howl charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-howl) | 1 in 6,250 | $21.40 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Charm \| Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) | 1 in 337 | $12.98 | 4.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Semi-Precious charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-semi-precious) | 1 in 161 | $10.36 | 7.0% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× |
| [Charm \| Baby Karat CT charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-ct) | 1 in 136 | $8.44 | 6.8% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| [Charm \| Hot Wurst charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-wurst) | 1 in 139 | $8.34 | 6.5% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| [Charm \| Diamond Dog charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diamond-dog) | 1 in 159 | $5.66 | 3.9% | 7 | 2.1 | 3.33× |
| [Charm \| Titeenium AWP charm · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-titeenium-awp) | 1 in 112 | $3.32 | 3.2% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.67× |
| [Charm \| Die-cast AK charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-die-cast-ak) | 1 in 50 | $2.79 | 6.0% | 18 | 6.6 | 2.71× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) | 1 in 40 | $2.50 | 6.9% | 15 | 8.4 | 1.78× |
| [Charm \| Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) | 1 in 27 | $1.56 | 6.2% | 21 | 12.2 | 1.72× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Squirt charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squirt) | 1 in 24 | $1.42 | 6.5% | 18 | 14.1 | 1.28× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) | 1 in 21 | $1.14 | 5.9% | 28 | 15.9 | 1.76× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Whiskers charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-whiskers) | 1 in 18 | $0.99 | 5.8% | 27 | 18.1 | 1.49× |
| [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 20 | $0.76 | 4.2% | 24 | 16.9 | 1.42× |
| [Charm \| Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) | 1 in 19 | $0.71 | 4.1% | 31 | 17.7 | 1.75× |
| [Charm \| That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) | 1 in 20 | $0.66 | 3.5% | 18 | 16.3 | 1.10× |
| [Charm \| POP Art charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pop-art) | 1 in 20 | $0.64 | 3.4% | 30 | 16.4 | 1.83× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Sandy charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sandy) | 1 in 27 | $0.60 | 2.4% | 16 | 12.3 | 1.30× |
| [Charm \| Hot Hands charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-hands) | 1 in 30 | $0.49 | 1.8% | 20 | 11.2 | 1.78× |
| [Charm \| Disco MAC charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-disco-mac) | 1 in 25 | $0.38 | 1.6% | 23 | 13.3 | 1.73× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Squatch charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squatch) | 1 in 20 | $0.33 | 1.8% | 27 | 16.4 | 1.65× |
| [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 1 in 19 | $0.23 | 1.3% | 0 | 17.9 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Hot Sauce charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-sauce) | 1 in 20 | $0.21 | 1.1% | 0 | 16.5 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) | 1 in 20 | $0.21 | 1.1% | 0 | 16.3 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) | 1 in 29 | $0.20 | 0.8% | 0 | 11.7 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Big Kev charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-big-kev) | 1 in 30 | $0.20 | 0.7% | 0 | 11.0 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) | 1 in 28 | $0.19 | 0.7% | 0 | 12.1 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) | 1 in 40 | $0.19 | 0.5% | 0 | 8.5 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Ava charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-ava) | 1 in 50 | $0.17 | 0.4% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Backsplash charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-backsplash) | 1 in 49 | $0.16 | 0.4% | 0 | 6.9 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) | 1 in 40 | $0.15 | 0.4% | 0 | 8.4 | 0.00× |
| [Charm \| Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) | 1 in 37 | $0.15 | 0.4% | 0 | 9.1 | 0.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/charm`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=charm)

[Charm | Hot Hands charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-hands) [VØID](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/V%C3%98ID) $1.00 $0.49 0.49x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC

[Charm | Baby Karat CT charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-ct) [VØID](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/V%C3%98ID) $1.00 $8.42 8.42x 2026-11-11 11:54 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Whiskers charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-whiskers) [Mariskaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mariskaa) $1.00 $0.99 0.99x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) [Mariskaa](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mariskaa) $1.00 $1.14 1.14x 2026-11-11 11:47 UTC

[Charm | Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) [-TRAUMS-](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/-TRAUMS-) $1.00 $0.71 0.71x 2026-11-11 05:54 UTC

[Charm | Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) [-TRAUMS-](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/-TRAUMS-) $1.00 $0.76 0.76x 2026-11-11 05:54 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Sandy charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sandy) [-TRAUMS-](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/-TRAUMS-) $1.00 $0.60 0.60x 2026-11-11 05:54 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Sandy charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sandy) [•KingシVN•](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E2%80%A2King%E3%82%B7VN%E2%80%A2) $1.00 $0.60 0.60x 2026-11-11 05:02 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) [Віктор Янукович](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%92%D1%96%D0%BA%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%20%D0%AF%D0%BD%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%87) $1.00 $1.14 1.14x 2026-11-11 00:13 UTC

[Charm | Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) [Дядя-Вася)](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%94%D1%8F%D0%B4%D1%8F-%D0%92%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%8F%29) $1.00 $0.73 0.73x 2026-11-10 21:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $1.00 | 92.10% | 32 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.00 | 92.10% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $1.00 | 92.06% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $1.00 | 92.07% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.00 | 92.09% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.00 | 92.09% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.00 | 92.08% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.00 | 92.02% | 32 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $1.00 | 92.00% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Ancient 0.0% #eb4b4b 1.0% rare 2.0% Legendary 0.9% #8847ff 25.4% uncommon 37.2% #d32ce6 7.9% #4b69ff 10.7% Rare 14.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt