---
title: "Contract + case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Contract + ($9.35) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 35 items with odds, observed 94.45% over 1,731 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/contract-ggdrop
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Contract +](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/contract-ggdrop)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Contract +

A case on GGDROP (admin), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/contract-ggdrop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/contract-ggdrop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/contract-ggdrop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/contract-ggdrop?window=all)

Price · $9.35

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $8.60 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.45% · 1,731 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.57% ±13.17 187 openings

7 days · 94.69% ±4.68 1,463 openings

30 days · 94.45% ±4.30 1,731 openings

since tracking started · 94.45% ±4.30 1,731 openings

75.0% 88.8% 102.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/contract-ggdrop?window=24h) | 187 | 88.57% ±13.2 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/contract-ggdrop?window=7d) | 1,463 | 94.69% ±4.68 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/contract-ggdrop) | 1,731 | 94.45% ±4.30 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/contract-ggdrop?window=all) | 1,731 | 94.45% ±4.30 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,731 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-well-worn) | 1 in 368 | $53.83 | 1.7% | 9 | 4.7 | 1.91× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 226 | $46.47 | 2.4% | 11 | 7.7 | 1.44× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 229 | $43.27 | 2.2% | 8 | 7.6 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 136 | $39.67 | 3.4% | 11 | 12.7 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 224 | $37.55 | 2.0% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $34.96 | 2.8% | 14 | 12.1 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) | 1 in 99 | $32.59 | 3.8% | 17 | 17.5 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 107 | $27.13 | 3.0% | 20 | 16.2 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $22.44 | 2.7% | 18 | 17.8 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $21.76 | 3.8% | 15 | 25.8 | 0.58× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $19.89 | 3.2% | 17 | 24.1 | 0.70× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 70 | $18.79 | 3.1% | 34 | 24.9 | 1.37× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $18.76 | 2.8% | 17 | 22.4 | 0.76× |
| [Safecracker Voltzmann \| The Professionals agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/safecracker-voltzmann-the-professionals) | 1 in 72 | $17.75 | 2.9% | 17 | 24.1 | 0.71× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 70 | $15.28 | 2.5% | 24 | 24.8 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $14.88 | 2.8% | 34 | 28.4 | 1.20× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $14.40 | 3.1% | 32 | 31.6 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $13.00 | 3.1% | 45 | 36.0 | 1.25× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $12.71 | 2.8% | 35 | 33.2 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $11.72 | 3.2% | 45 | 41.0 | 1.10× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $11.27 | 3.4% | 37 | 44.3 | 0.84× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $10.05 | 3.5% | 54 | 52.2 | 1.04× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $9.50 | 3.7% | 53 | 58.1 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $8.84 | 3.5% | 70 | 59.2 | 1.18× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $8.37 | 4.1% | 70 | 73.1 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $6.52 | 3.4% | 70 | 78.4 | 0.89× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $4.98 | 3.1% | 93 | 93.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.59 | 3.1% | 104 | 102.1 | 1.02× |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.02 | 3.3% | 145 | 122.6 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-connexion-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $3.77 | 2.8% | 107 | 109.1 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $3.03 | 1.9% | 78 | 92.0 | 0.85× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $2.81 | 1.9% | 100 | 98.6 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $2.38 | 1.6% | 96 | 101.8 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-royal-consorts-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $2.32 | 1.8% | 112 | 115.4 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-eye-of-zapems-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $1.95 | 1.4% | 111 | 110.7 | 1.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/contract-ggdrop`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=contract-ggdrop)

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-battle-scarred) [Makarik\_y](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Makarik_y) $9.35 $2.39 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-royal-consorts-field-tested) [Makarik\_y](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Makarik_y) $9.35 $2.30 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[XM1014 | XOXO (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-field-tested) [Makarik\_y](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Makarik_y) $9.35 $4.00 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) [Makarik\_y](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Makarik_y) $9.35 $5.00 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[SG 553 | Colony IV (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-battle-scarred) [Makarik\_y](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Makarik_y) $9.35 $9.53 1.02x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[AWP | Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-well-worn) [Makarik\_y](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Makarik_y) $9.35 $52.99 5.67x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[USP-S | Stainless (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-well-worn) [Makarik\_y](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Makarik_y) $9.35 $8.49 0.91x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) [L4he$T](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/L4he%24T) $9.35 $5.00 0.53x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) [Real-Punisher](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Real-Punisher) $9.35 $5.00 0.53x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) [CS.PRO AEZY](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CS.PRO%20AEZY) $9.35 $27.03 2.89x 2026-11-11 12:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $9.35 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $9.35 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $9.35 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $9.35 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $9.35 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $9.35 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $9.35 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $9.35 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $9.35 | 92.04% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $9.35 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $9.35 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $9.35 | 92.02% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $9.35 | 92.10% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $9.35 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $9.35 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $9.35 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $9.35 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $9.35 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $9.35 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $9.35 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $9.35 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $9.35 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $9.35 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $9.35 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $9.35 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $9.35 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $9.35 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $9.35 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $9.35 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $9.35 | 92.00% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 3.2% gold 0.4% Ancient 1.5% classified 17.7% uncommon 7.8% pink 9.3% Industrial Grade 2.1% restricted 2.6% violet 8.9% Mil Spec Grade 9.5% Legendary 12.5% Mythical 18.3% #8847ff 6.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt