---
title: "Dark case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dark ($8.99) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.02% from 59 items with odds, observed 94.71% over 1,626 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dark
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Dark](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dark)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Dark

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dark?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dark?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dark) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dark?window=all)

Price · $8.99

Advertised RTP · 92.02% · EV $8.27 from 59 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.71% · 1,626 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.84% ±11.08 384 openings

7 days · 96.39% ±5.84 1,361 openings

30 days · 94.71% ±5.36 1,626 openings

since tracking started · 94.71% ±5.36 1,626 openings

84.0% 95.8% 107.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dark?window=24h) | 384 | 95.84% ±11.1 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dark?window=7d) | 1,361 | 96.39% ±5.84 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dark) | 1,626 | 94.71% ±5.36 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dark?window=all) | 1,626 | 94.71% ±5.36 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 59 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,627 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $152 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $140 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $133 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $95.82 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,370 | $87.79 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,273 | $79.44 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $75.56 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 901 | $67.27 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 813 | $66.82 | 1.0% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 3,125 | $66.76 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $66.46 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,639 | $66.34 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 518 | $66.16 | 1.5% | 0 | 3.1 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $64.79 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 1,064 | $60.35 | 0.7% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.62× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 840 | $59.45 | 0.9% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.07× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 397 | $59.35 | 1.8% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 195 | $40.15 | 2.5% | 14 | 8.3 | 1.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 158 | $38.71 | 3.0% | 10 | 10.3 | 0.97× |
| [Sir Bloody Skullhead Darryl \| The Professionals agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-skullhead-darryl-the-professionals) | 1 in 111 | $38.45 | 4.2% | 13 | 14.7 | 0.89× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 73 | $29.21 | 4.9% | 15 | 22.4 | 0.67× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $21.76 | 2.9% | 22 | 17.8 | 1.24× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $21.41 | 3.7% | 20 | 23.5 | 0.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Anodized Gunmetal (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-anodized-gunmetal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $17.23 | 3.9% | 34 | 30.2 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 1 in 55 | $15.84 | 3.5% | 22 | 29.6 | 0.74× |
| [Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $14.01 | 2.6% | 18 | 24.9 | 0.72× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Anodized Gunmetal (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-anodized-gunmetal-factory-new) | 1 in 66 | $13.93 | 2.6% | 21 | 24.7 | 0.85× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $13.61 | 2.5% | 23 | 24.6 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $13.19 | 1.9% | 25 | 19.6 | 1.28× |
| [AUG \| Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) | 1 in 146 | $13.10 | 1.1% | 16 | 11.2 | 1.43× |
| [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 137 | $12.94 | 1.1% | 28 | 11.9 | 2.36× |
| [AUG \| Wings (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $12.31 | 1.3% | 16 | 14.7 | 1.09× |
| [Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $12.28 | 1.4% | 22 | 15.0 | 1.46× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $11.56 | 1.7% | 11 | 19.3 | 0.57× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 70 | $11.33 | 2.0% | 11 | 23.3 | 0.47× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $11.21 | 1.8% | 33 | 21.7 | 1.52× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $10.31 | 2.0% | 20 | 25.7 | 0.78× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $9.94 | 2.0% | 28 | 27.5 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $9.89 | 2.3% | 19 | 31.8 | 0.60× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $8.86 | 2.9% | 52 | 44.3 | 1.17× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $8.28 | 2.4% | 33 | 39.1 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $7.39 | 2.4% | 50 | 43.4 | 1.15× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $6.95 | 3.0% | 68 | 57.8 | 1.18× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $6.92 | 2.7% | 44 | 52.9 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-cut-out-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $5.21 | 2.4% | 52 | 61.4 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-cut-out-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $4.92 | 2.3% | 54 | 62.6 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $4.20 | 2.2% | 68 | 70.9 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $4.02 | 2.4% | 65 | 80.2 | 0.81× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Battle-Scarred) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-bamboo-shadow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $3.92 | 1.6% | 60 | 54.1 | 1.11× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $3.55 | 1.5% | 66 | 57.2 | 1.15× |
| [SSG 08 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $2.90 | 1.1% | 58 | 50.3 | 1.15× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $2.60 | 1.1% | 50 | 59.2 | 0.84× |
| [SSG 08 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-carbon-fiber-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.55 | 1.2% | 57 | 65.3 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-catacombs-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $2.51 | 1.2% | 54 | 63.0 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $2.27 | 0.8% | 71 | 48.6 | 1.46× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $2.14 | 0.7% | 57 | 46.0 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-catacombs-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $2.11 | 0.9% | 71 | 56.4 | 1.26× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $2.05 | 1.1% | 64 | 69.8 | 0.92× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $2.02 | 1.1% | 69 | 71.9 | 0.96× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/dark`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=dark)

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) [NOT ASL](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/NOT%20ASL) $8.99 $4.14 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[P250 | Cartel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-well-worn) [Real-Punisher](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Real-Punisher) $8.99 $15.02 1.67x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[P2000 | Panther Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-field-tested) [Savage](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Savage) $8.99 $2.21 0.25x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Catacombs (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-catacombs-battle-scarred) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $8.99 $2.50 0.28x 2026-11-11 11:09 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $8.99 $3.56 0.40x 2026-11-11 11:09 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Catacombs (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-catacombs-battle-scarred) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $8.99 $2.50 0.28x 2026-11-11 11:09 UTC

[P2000 | Panther Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-minimal-wear) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $8.99 $3.18 0.35x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC

[P2000 | Panther Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-field-tested) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $8.99 $2.21 0.25x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Black Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-well-worn) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $8.99 $40.06 4.46x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Cut Out (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-cut-out-well-worn) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $8.99 $4.91 0.55x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $8.99 | 92.02% | 59 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $8.99 | 92.02% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $8.99 | 92.10% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $8.99 | 92.06% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $8.99 | 92.05% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $8.99 | 92.09% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $8.99 | 92.09% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $8.99 | 92.09% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $8.99 | 92.10% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $8.99 | 92.04% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $8.99 | 92.00% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $8.99 | 92.06% | 59 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 3.6% classified 8.1% restricted 14.0% #8847ff 3.0% covert knife 0.3% industrial 8.4% gold 0.4% mil spec 5.3% red 0.9% consumer 1.9% Common 4.8% milspec 0.9% Industrial Grade 5.3% Classified 1.7% #4b69ff 2.0% violet 5.9% blue 3.6% Mil Spec Grade 15.0% Rare 4.4% other 3.3% Uncommon 3.1% Restricted 4.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.02 on average: an expected loss of $7.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt