---
title: "Dead Man's Drop case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Dead Man's Drop ($2.39) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.01% from 35 items with odds, observed 91.40% over 42.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dead-mans-drop-helloween
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Dead Man's Drop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dead-mans-drop-helloween)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Dead Man's Drop

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dead-mans-drop-helloween?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dead-mans-drop-helloween?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dead-mans-drop-helloween) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dead-mans-drop-helloween?window=all)

Price · $2.39

Advertised RTP · 92.01% · EV $2.20 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.40% · 42.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.59% ±3.34 5,574 openings

7 days · 91.52% ±1.35 35.7K openings

30 days · 91.40% ±1.24 42.5K openings

since tracking started · 91.40% ±1.24 42.5K openings

89.5% 93.5% 97.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dead-mans-drop-helloween?window=24h) | 5,574 | 93.59% ±3.34 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dead-mans-drop-helloween?window=7d) | 35.7K | 91.52% ±1.35 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dead-mans-drop-helloween) | 42.5K | 91.40% ±1.24 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/dead-mans-drop-helloween?window=all) | 42.5K | 91.40% ±1.24 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $64.42 | 0.4% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $51.40 | 0.4% | 13 | 6.4 | 2.04× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $42.79 | 0.3% | 22 | 5.5 | 3.98× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 649 | $35.73 | 2.5% | 49 | 65.5 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 256 | $25.92 | 4.6% | 100 | 165.9 | 0.60× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 164 | $21.50 | 6.0% | 166 | 259.9 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 160 | $15.38 | 4.4% | 321 | 265.4 | 1.21× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $11.61 | 4.0% | 438 | 320.7 | 1.37× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $5.90 | 4.0% | 728 | 639.3 | 1.14× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $4.24 | 4.4% | 907 | 961.7 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $3.88 | 4.9% | 1,226 | 1181.6 | 1.04× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $3.71 | 5.1% | 1,244 | 1278.6 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $3.40 | 3.7% | 966 | 1017.4 | 0.95× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $3.33 | 2.3% | 763 | 651.2 | 1.17× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $3.21 | 2.1% | 680 | 620.1 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $3.18 | 2.6% | 625 | 755.8 | 0.83× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $3.14 | 2.2% | 725 | 655.4 | 1.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $2.89 | 2.5% | 911 | 816.7 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.40 | 2.2% | 1,016 | 852.4 | 1.19× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $2.37 | 2.8% | 1,199 | 1091.8 | 1.10× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $2.07 | 3.2% | 1,340 | 1442.8 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $2.02 | 3.5% | 1,465 | 1637.1 | 0.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $1.86 | 2.4% | 1,294 | 1184.1 | 1.09× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.72 | 2.8% | 1,383 | 1523.1 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $1.59 | 2.1% | 1,345 | 1234.8 | 1.09× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $1.54 | 2.3% | 1,624 | 1403.6 | 1.16× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $1.50 | 2.6% | 1,524 | 1635.4 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.34 | 2.5% | 1,666 | 1749.4 | 0.95× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.28 | 2.4% | 1,672 | 1721.4 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $1.18 | 2.5% | 1,993 | 2007.2 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $1.07 | 2.7% | 2,306 | 2354.7 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.90 | 2.5% | 2,386 | 2577.1 | 0.93× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.87 | 2.8% | 2,876 | 3018.2 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.63 | 2.3% | 3,531 | 3411.2 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.53 | 2.3% | 4,026 | 4017.3 | 1.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/dead-mans-drop-helloween`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=dead-mans-drop-helloween)

[Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) [Matyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Matyyy) $2.39 $3.33 1.39x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) [lerberism](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/lerberism) $2.39 $3.44 1.44x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC

[USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-minimal-wear) [Matyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Matyyy) $2.39 $0.53 0.22x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) [lerberism](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/lerberism) $2.39 $3.71 1.55x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) [lerberism](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/lerberism) $2.39 $4.34 1.82x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) [Matyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Matyyy) $2.39 $15.49 6.48x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC

[M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) [lerberism](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/lerberism) $2.39 $0.89 0.37x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-factory-new) [Matyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Matyyy) $2.39 $0.87 0.36x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) [lerberism](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/lerberism) $2.39 $0.62 0.26x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC

[USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-minimal-wear) [lerberism](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/lerberism) $2.39 $0.53 0.22x 2026-11-11 19:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $2.39 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $2.39 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $2.39 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $2.39 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.39 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $2.39 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $2.39 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $2.39 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $2.39 | 92.00% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.0% sunny 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% Ancient 0.2% red 0.4% classified 3.4% uncommon 4.2% pink 15.1% Legendary 1.5% restricted 18.2% #8847ff 17.5% Restricted 3.4% Rare 13.6% mil spec 6.1% milspec 7.1% blue 9.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.01 on average: an expected loss of $7.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt