---
title: "Diver case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Diver ($7.00) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 42 items with odds, observed 88.07% over 4,156 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/diver
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Diver](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/diver)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Diver

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/diver?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/diver?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/diver) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/diver?window=all)

Price · $7.00

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $6.44 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.07% · 4,156 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.14% ±8.80 927 openings

7 days · 87.91% ±4.12 3,872 openings

30 days · 88.07% ±3.92 4,156 openings

since tracking started · 88.07% ±3.92 4,156 openings

77.5% 87.0% 96.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.15% – 91.99%, 4,156 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/diver?window=24h) | 927 | 87.14% ±8.80 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/diver?window=7d) | 3,872 | 87.91% ±4.12 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/diver) | 4,156 | 88.07% ±3.92 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/diver?window=all) | 4,156 | 88.07% ±3.92 | −2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,156 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $156 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $134 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $106 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $88.34 | 0.3% | 4 | 0.8 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 515 | $74.53 | 2.2% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 163 | $59.89 | 5.7% | 9 | 25.4 | 0.35× |
| [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $50.00 | 7.4% | 14 | 39.4 | 0.36× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $38.05 | 7.0% | 33 | 49.3 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $28.05 | 4.4% | 37 | 41.6 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $19.15 | 4.7% | 50 | 66.1 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $14.28 | 3.9% | 65 | 73.0 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $10.94 | 4.6% | 86 | 113.5 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $10.06 | 4.6% | 112 | 122.1 | 0.92× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $9.33 | 4.1% | 87 | 116.5 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $8.84 | 3.3% | 95 | 99.0 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $8.67 | 2.7% | 56 | 82.0 | 0.68× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $7.83 | 1.6% | 64 | 53.4 | 1.20× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $7.83 | 2.1% | 53 | 72.8 | 0.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $7.76 | 1.7% | 52 | 57.9 | 0.90× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $7.50 | 2.0% | 57 | 70.3 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $6.73 | 1.7% | 53 | 66.5 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $6.28 | 1.5% | 67 | 65.8 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $6.15 | 2.3% | 73 | 102.0 | 0.72× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $5.48 | 2.2% | 92 | 106.1 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $5.11 | 1.3% | 109 | 68.9 | 1.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $4.97 | 1.8% | 92 | 98.6 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $4.93 | 2.1% | 71 | 111.5 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $4.73 | 1.4% | 90 | 79.1 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $4.62 | 1.2% | 69 | 70.9 | 0.97× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $4.23 | 1.2% | 75 | 78.5 | 0.95× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $3.99 | 1.4% | 88 | 95.8 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $3.93 | 1.6% | 76 | 106.6 | 0.71× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $3.81 | 2.0% | 72 | 139.1 | 0.52× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $3.66 | 1.7% | 89 | 127.9 | 0.70× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $3.42 | 1.6% | 80 | 124.3 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $3.25 | 1.9% | 91 | 156.1 | 0.58× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $2.89 | 1.9% | 137 | 173.4 | 0.79× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.36 | 1.9% | 133 | 212.7 | 0.63× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $2.03 | 1.7% | 142 | 229.1 | 0.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $1.80 | 1.8% | 215 | 266.2 | 0.81× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.28 | 1.4% | 209 | 293.9 | 0.71× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.01 | 1.1% | 226 | 289.5 | 0.78× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/diver`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=diver)

[MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) [Fostiq](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Fostiq) $7.00 $1.03 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) [PimmelAmAckermann](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/PimmelAmAckermann) $7.00 $2.36 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC

[M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) [BAR1NABA1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/BAR1NABA1) $7.00 $2.01 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) [Fostiq](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Fostiq) $7.00 $1.03 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) [Fostiq](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Fostiq) $7.00 $6.59 0.94x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) [BAR1NABA1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/BAR1NABA1) $7.00 $6.08 0.87x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) [BAR1NABA1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/BAR1NABA1) $7.00 $7.44 1.06x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) [BAR1NABA1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/BAR1NABA1) $7.00 $1.29 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) [BAR1NABA1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/BAR1NABA1) $7.00 $1.03 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) [BAR1NABA1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/BAR1NABA1) $7.00 $5.48 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $7.00 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $7.00 | 92.02% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $7.00 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $7.00 | 91.99% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $7.00 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $7.00 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $7.00 | 92.08% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $7.00 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $7.00 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $7.00 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $7.00 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $7.00 | 92.08% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $7.00 | 92.06% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $7.00 | 92.01% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $7.00 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $7.00 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $7.00 | 92.00% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $7.17 | 92.00% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $7.17 | 92.00% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $7.17 | 92.00% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $7.17 | 92.00% | 57 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $7.17 | 92.06% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $7.17 | 92.09% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $7.17 | 92.07% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $7.17 | 92.00% | 57 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $7.17 | 92.10% | 57 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $7.17 | 92.00% | 57 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $7.17 | 92.00% | 57 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $7.17 | 92.09% | 57 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $7.17 | 92.00% | 57 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% covert 0.6% extraordinary 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% red 1.2% uncommon 3.6% Ancient 1.2% classified 13.4% #d32ce6 3.7% pink 24.1% Legendary 4.4% rare 1.6% restricted 3.5% #d32ee6 1.7% Classified 5.6% Mythical 11.1% violet 12.2% #8847ff 11.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt