---
title: "Event Case case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Event Case ($1.29) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 35 items with odds, observed 100.29% over 1,682 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/event-case-ggdrop
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Event Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/event-case-ggdrop)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Event Case

A case on GGDROP (admin), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/event-case-ggdrop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/event-case-ggdrop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/event-case-ggdrop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/event-case-ggdrop?window=all)

Price · $1.29

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $1.19 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 100.29% · 1,682 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 103.88% ±12.78 223 openings

7 days · 101.61% ±5.01 1,434 openings

30 days · 100.29% ±4.63 1,682 openings

since tracking started · 100.29% ±4.63 1,682 openings

90.5% 104.0% 117.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 92.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (95.66% – 104.92%, 1,682 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/event-case-ggdrop?window=24h) | 223 | 103.88% ±12.8 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/event-case-ggdrop?window=7d) | 1,434 | 101.61% ±5.01 | +3.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/event-case-ggdrop) | 1,682 | 100.29% ±4.63 | +3.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/event-case-ggdrop?window=all) | 1,682 | 100.29% ±4.63 | +3.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,682 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 269 | $6.51 | 2.0% | 9 | 6.3 | 1.44× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 183 | $6.29 | 2.9% | 9 | 9.2 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 212 | $5.65 | 2.2% | 7 | 7.9 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Noisia, Sharpened music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-noisia-sharpened) | 1 in 177 | $5.63 | 2.7% | 9 | 9.5 | 0.95× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Hero charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-hero) | 1 in 265 | $4.94 | 1.6% | 13 | 6.4 | 2.04× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) | 1 in 127 | $4.84 | 3.2% | 12 | 13.3 | 0.90× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 155 | $4.67 | 2.5% | 12 | 10.9 | 1.10× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $4.00 | 3.5% | 24 | 17.7 | 1.36× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 99 | $3.68 | 3.1% | 15 | 17.0 | 0.88× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $3.67 | 3.8% | 26 | 20.8 | 1.25× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $3.57 | 5.0% | 26 | 28.2 | 0.92× |
| [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $3.32 | 4.3% | 54 | 25.9 | 2.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $3.31 | 4.8% | 26 | 28.7 | 0.91× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $2.50 | 4.7% | 31 | 37.8 | 0.82× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $2.07 | 4.8% | 58 | 45.9 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Necropos (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-necropos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $1.91 | 5.4% | 74 | 56.0 | 1.32× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $1.33 | 4.8% | 70 | 72.2 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.25 | 4.5% | 64 | 72.4 | 0.88× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.23 | 4.4% | 79 | 72.2 | 1.09× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.98 | 4.1% | 96 | 84.4 | 1.14× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $0.79 | 2.4% | 60 | 59.6 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.73 | 2.4% | 85 | 66.0 | 1.29× |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.72 | 2.9% | 92 | 79.4 | 1.16× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.70 | 2.2% | 52 | 61.8 | 0.84× |
| [Nova \| Wild Six (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $0.67 | 1.4% | 78 | 42.7 | 1.83× |
| [Charm \| That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) | 1 in 43 | $0.66 | 1.3% | 61 | 38.7 | 1.58× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $0.61 | 1.4% | 47 | 45.3 | 1.04× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $0.60 | 1.6% | 55 | 51.9 | 1.06× |
| [MAC-10 \| Calf Skin (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-calf-skin-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.57 | 1.7% | 63 | 59.6 | 1.06× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.42 | 1.6% | 70 | 74.1 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.35 | 1.4% | 93 | 80.2 | 1.16× |
| [P90 \| Verdant Growth (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-verdant-growth-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.35 | 1.5% | 76 | 82.9 | 0.92× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.31 | 1.5% | 120 | 95.3 | 1.26× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.25 | 1.4% | 16 | 109.7 | 0.15× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.21 | 1.0% | 0 | 92.4 | 0.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/event-case-ggdrop`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=event-case-ggdrop)

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) [BlutiFruti](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/BlutiFruti) $1.29 $0.33 0.26x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-battle-scarred) [V4NZ1LLA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/V4NZ1LLA) $1.29 $0.60 0.47x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC

[Galil AR | Firefight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-battle-scarred) [CRYSS](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CRYSS) $1.29 $1.32 1.02x 2026-11-11 16:28 UTC

[Tec-9 | Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) [† 𝓑𝓪𝓪𝓵 †](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E2%80%A0%20%F0%9D%93%91%F0%9D%93%AA%F0%9D%93%AA%F0%9D%93%B5%20%E2%80%A0) $1.29 $0.31 0.24x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) [director](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/director) $1.29 $0.33 0.26x 2026-11-11 16:06 UTC

[Galil AR | Firefight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-battle-scarred) [+WiiiiiLerij \*\_\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%2BWiiiiiLerij%20*_*-1325027) $1.29 $1.33 1.03x 2026-11-11 15:07 UTC

[MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-field-tested) [gg:igor4k](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/gg%3Aigor4k) $1.29 $0.98 0.76x 2026-11-11 15:07 UTC

[Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-factory-new) [q91696818](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/q91696818) $1.29 $0.72 0.56x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC

[MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-calf-skin-factory-new) [ZetDemo](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ZetDemo) $1.29 $0.57 0.44x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC

[P90 | Verdant Growth (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-verdant-growth-well-worn) [ZetDemo](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ZetDemo) $1.29 $0.35 0.27x 2026-11-11 14:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $1.29 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.29 | 92.03% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.29 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1.29 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.29 | 92.02% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $1.29 | 91.95% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $1.29 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.29 | 92.03% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $1.29 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.29 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.29 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.29 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.29 | 92.06% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 7.8% #d32ee6 0.5% uncommon 2.8% High Grade 0.6% #d32ce6 0.4% classified 5.5% industrial 6.5% restricted 12.1% Restricted 2.7% Mil Spec 3.3% violet 12.4% blue 19.9% Mythical 3.9% #4b69ff 4.7% #8847ff 6.2% Rare 7.1% Uncommon 3.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt