---
title: "Falchion Case case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Falchion Case ($2.40) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 125 items with odds, observed 100.40% over 603 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/falchion
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Falchion Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/falchion)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Falchion Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/falchion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/falchion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/falchion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/falchion?window=all)

Price · $2.40

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $2.21 from 125 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 100.40% · 603 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.68% ±24.34 102 openings

7 days · 98.57% ±11.48 471 openings

30 days · 100.40% ±10.11 603 openings

since tracking started · 100.40% ±10.11 603 openings

60.5% 85.8% 111.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/falchion?window=24h) | 102 | 85.68% ±24.3 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/falchion?window=7d) | 471 | 98.57% ±11.5 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/falchion) | 603 | 100.40% ±10.1 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/falchion?window=all) | 603 | 100.40% ±10.1 | +1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 125 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 603 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,333 | $69.90 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-loudmouth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,762 | $50.05 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $42.13 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $41.52 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $39.61 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,000 | $39.18 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $39.08 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 3,030 | $36.02 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,846 | $34.11 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 3,125 | $29.10 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $27.18 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,818 | $24.10 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $22.84 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $22.76 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 1,515 | $22.37 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,786 | $19.52 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $18.79 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $17.57 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,348 | $16.42 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 621 | $15.21 | 1.1% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-factory-new) | 1 in 2,778 | $14.54 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 676 | $14.28 | 1.0% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 649 | $12.84 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 645 | $12.41 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 1,471 | $11.80 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 980 | $10.96 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 562 | $10.44 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.86× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 485 | $10.23 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 488 | $9.73 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bunsen-burner-factory-new) | 1 in 424 | $9.67 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 606 | $9.56 | 0.7% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 546 | $9.09 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.81× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 629 | $8.86 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,010 | $8.77 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-well-worn) | 1 in 300 | $8.72 | 1.3% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 481 | $8.61 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.59× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 806 | $8.48 | 0.5% | 3 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 326 | $8.33 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 329 | $8.29 | 1.1% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 379 | $8.08 | 1.0% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.88× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 228 | $7.76 | 1.5% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 193 | $6.84 | 1.6% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.28× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 148 | $5.81 | 1.8% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-factory-new) | 1 in 128 | $5.72 | 2.0% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.64× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 113 | $5.45 | 2.2% | 8 | 5.3 | 1.50× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $5.23 | 1.7% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.42× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 255 | $4.95 | 0.9% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.12× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 215 | $4.92 | 1.0% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 159 | $4.75 | 1.3% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.59× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 249 | $4.70 | 0.9% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.24× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 242 | $4.64 | 0.9% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 215 | $4.63 | 1.0% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 234 | $4.58 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-well-worn) | 1 in 204 | $4.52 | 1.0% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.70× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 132 | $4.43 | 1.5% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 168 | $4.00 | 1.1% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 121 | $3.84 | 1.4% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 103 | $3.79 | 1.7% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $3.73 | 1.9% | 5 | 6.7 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $3.44 | 1.3% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $3.32 | 1.3% | 8 | 5.1 | 1.56× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-battle-scarred) | 1 in 101 | $3.21 | 1.4% | 3 | 6.0 | 0.50× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $3.15 | 1.3% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $3.10 | 1.3% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.26× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bunsen-burner-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $2.98 | 1.3% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $2.78 | 1.3% | 11 | 6.3 | 1.74× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bunsen-burner-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $2.75 | 1.5% | 9 | 7.5 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Ranger (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-ranger-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $2.66 | 1.4% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $2.59 | 1.4% | 4 | 7.3 | 0.55× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-well-worn) | 1 in 99 | $2.31 | 1.1% | 8 | 6.1 | 1.31× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $2.26 | 1.2% | 3 | 7.2 | 0.42× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Loudmouth (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-loudmouth-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $2.24 | 1.2% | 4 | 7.3 | 0.55× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $2.24 | 1.1% | 7 | 6.7 | 1.05× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $2.15 | 1.3% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.60× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Loudmouth (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-loudmouth-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $2.12 | 0.7% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.43× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-loudmouth-field-tested) | 1 in 103 | $2.10 | 0.9% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 93 | $1.94 | 0.9% | 2 | 6.5 | 0.31× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $1.89 | 0.9% | 0 | 6.6 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 101 | $1.89 | 0.8% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $1.84 | 0.9% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.46× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $1.83 | 1.0% | 4 | 7.4 | 0.54× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $1.76 | 0.7% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.56× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $1.65 | 0.8% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $1.65 | 0.8% | 9 | 6.7 | 1.35× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bunsen-burner-battle-scarred) | 1 in 89 | $1.53 | 0.8% | 5 | 6.8 | 0.74× |
| [Nova \| Ranger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $1.51 | 0.9% | 9 | 7.9 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $1.50 | 0.9% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $1.48 | 0.8% | 3 | 7.6 | 0.39× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $1.45 | 0.5% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Riot (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-riot-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $1.44 | 0.6% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $1.32 | 0.6% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $1.32 | 0.7% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.84× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $1.29 | 0.7% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.84× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $1.23 | 0.7% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $1.16 | 0.8% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) | 1 in 73 | $1.10 | 0.7% | 11 | 8.2 | 1.34× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $1.07 | 0.7% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-well-worn) | 1 in 74 | $1.05 | 0.6% | 10 | 8.1 | 1.23× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $1.03 | 0.5% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-well-worn) | 1 in 118 | $1.01 | 0.4% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 126 | $0.99 | 0.4% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.05× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $0.98 | 0.4% | 8 | 4.8 | 1.66× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) | 1 in 121 | $0.94 | 0.4% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.41× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $0.93 | 0.4% | 9 | 5.0 | 1.78× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $0.93 | 0.4% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-battle-scarred) | 1 in 106 | $0.92 | 0.4% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) | 1 in 106 | $0.89 | 0.4% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $0.86 | 0.3% | 12 | 5.0 | 2.42× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-battle-scarred) | 1 in 122 | $0.86 | 0.3% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Ranger (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-ranger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $0.82 | 0.4% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $0.79 | 0.4% | 3 | 7.3 | 0.41× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Riot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-riot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $0.78 | 0.4% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.24× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $0.77 | 0.5% | 5 | 8.9 | 0.56× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $0.69 | 0.5% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $0.67 | 0.4% | 10 | 8.9 | 1.12× |
| [UMP-45 \| Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $0.66 | 0.5% | 15 | 11.1 | 1.35× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $0.62 | 0.6% | 10 | 12.6 | 0.80× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $0.60 | 0.5% | 20 | 10.0 | 2.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Riot (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $0.60 | 0.5% | 14 | 10.1 | 1.39× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $0.50 | 0.4% | 13 | 11.2 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $0.46 | 0.5% | 11 | 13.1 | 0.84× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $0.42 | 0.4% | 11 | 13.4 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $0.36 | 0.5% | 15 | 19.0 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Riot (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-riot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $0.36 | 0.5% | 20 | 19.8 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $0.35 | 0.5% | 24 | 17.1 | 1.40× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/falchion`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=falchion)

[Nova | Ranger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-factory-new) [RЄVDA420](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/R%D0%84VDA420) $2.40 $1.51 0.63x 2026-11-11 15:42 UTC

[MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) [BAR1NABA1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/BAR1NABA1) $2.40 $1.23 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) [BAR1NABA1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/BAR1NABA1) $2.40 $0.92 0.38x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) [BAR1NABA1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/BAR1NABA1) $2.40 $0.62 0.26x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bunsen-burner-well-worn) [BAR1NABA1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/BAR1NABA1) $2.40 $2.74 1.14x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-field-tested) [BAR1NABA1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/BAR1NABA1) $2.40 $0.46 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) [MonTesCZ88](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/MonTesCZ88) $2.40 $8.48 3.53x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC

[P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-field-tested) [Katze im Panzer \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Katze%20im%20Panzer%20**********-1348897) $2.40 $0.60 0.25x 2026-11-11 10:31 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-battle-scarred) [Katze im Panzer \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Katze%20im%20Panzer%20**********-1348897) $2.40 $0.36 0.15x 2026-11-11 10:31 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-neural-net-battle-scarred) [Katze im Panzer \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Katze%20im%20Panzer%20**********-1348897) $2.40 $1.93 0.80x 2026-11-11 10:31 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $2.40 | 92.03% | 125 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $2.40 | 92.03% | 125 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $2.40 | 92.06% | 125 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $2.40 | 92.07% | 125 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $2.40 | 92.06% | 125 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.40 | 92.06% | 125 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $2.40 | 92.07% | 125 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $2.40 | 92.01% | 125 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $2.40 | 92.01% | 125 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $2.40 | 92.03% | 125 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $2.40 | 92.05% | 125 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $2.40 | 92.01% | 125 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.40 | 92.01% | 125 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $2.40 | 92.04% | 125 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $2.40 | 92.07% | 125 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.40 | 92.00% | 125 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 0.8% covert 0.1% restricted 26.5% #d32ee6 0.0% red 0.0% classified 3.6% pink 1.3% mil spec 14.1% Classified 0.2% violet 1.0% Rare 2.2% Mythical 2.9% milspec 18.7% Restricted 2.0% Mil Spec Grade 6.8% #8847ff 3.7% #4b69ff 13.1% #4B69FF 0.9% blue 2.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt