---
title: "Final Scream case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Final Scream ($6.00) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 35 items with odds, observed 92.49% over 14.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/final-scream-helloween
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Final Scream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/final-scream-helloween)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Final Scream

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/final-scream-helloween?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/final-scream-helloween?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/final-scream-helloween) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/final-scream-helloween?window=all)

Price · $6.00

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $5.52 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.49% · 14.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.91% ±6.37 1,802 openings

7 days · 92.61% ±2.37 12.3K openings

30 days · 92.49% ±2.18 14.6K openings

since tracking started · 92.49% ±2.18 14.6K openings

87.0% 94.0% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/final-scream-helloween?window=24h) | 1,802 | 93.91% ±6.37 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/final-scream-helloween?window=7d) | 12.3K | 92.61% ±2.37 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/final-scream-helloween) | 14.6K | 92.49% ±2.18 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/final-scream-helloween?window=all) | 14.6K | 92.49% ±2.18 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $144 | 0.5% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $138 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $102 | 0.3% | 10 | 2.8 | 3.60× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $77.61 | 6.3% | 27 | 66.0 | 0.41× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 649 | $66.27 | 1.8% | 45 | 22.5 | 2.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 415 | $48.97 | 2.1% | 83 | 35.3 | 2.35× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 160 | $34.45 | 3.9% | 138 | 91.3 | 1.51× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $26.04 | 6.6% | 151 | 204.0 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $14.40 | 5.1% | 279 | 286.4 | 0.97× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $11.65 | 5.1% | 340 | 353.4 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $9.23 | 5.1% | 408 | 449.7 | 0.91× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $8.92 | 5.2% | 411 | 474.4 | 0.87× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $8.09 | 3.2% | 401 | 316.1 | 1.27× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $7.83 | 3.2% | 300 | 328.1 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $7.83 | 2.6% | 225 | 270.7 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $7.76 | 2.2% | 309 | 225.8 | 1.37× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $7.45 | 2.3% | 211 | 248.8 | 0.85× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $6.52 | 2.0% | 267 | 241.8 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $6.28 | 2.5% | 262 | 324.4 | 0.81× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $5.93 | 2.9% | 374 | 396.0 | 0.94× |
| [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $5.36 | 2.8% | 424 | 425.4 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $5.21 | 2.8% | 418 | 439.3 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $4.27 | 2.5% | 465 | 479.1 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $4.24 | 3.0% | 482 | 564.0 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $4.11 | 2.7% | 592 | 523.9 | 1.13× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $4.11 | 2.6% | 530 | 511.8 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Black Box (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-box-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $3.28 | 2.3% | 517 | 566.0 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $3.21 | 2.0% | 572 | 496.4 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $2.89 | 2.1% | 670 | 591.1 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $2.84 | 3.1% | 757 | 868.4 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $2.40 | 2.1% | 762 | 701.1 | 1.09× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $2.25 | 2.5% | 836 | 887.7 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $2.03 | 2.2% | 928 | 884.6 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $1.44 | 2.1% | 1,165 | 1172.8 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $1.29 | 1.9% | 1,270 | 1180.1 | 1.08× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/final-scream-helloween`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=final-scream-helloween)

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $6.00 $75.93 12.66x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $6.00 $1.42 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $6.00 $1.42 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-well-worn) [Real-Punisher](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Real-Punisher) $6.00 $4.06 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) [jusi](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/jusi) $6.00 $1.42 0.24x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-minimal-wear) [jusi](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/jusi) $6.00 $2.24 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[M4A1-S | Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) [jusi](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/jusi) $6.00 $4.29 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) [jusi](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/jusi) $6.00 $1.99 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-field-tested) [jusi](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/jusi) $6.00 $3.20 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) [jusi](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/jusi) $6.00 $8.26 1.38x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $6.00 | 91.99% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $6.00 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $6.00 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $6.00 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $6.00 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $6.00 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $6.00 | 92.03% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $6.00 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $6.00 | 92.02% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $6.00 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $6.00 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $6.00 | 92.04% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $6.00 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $6.00 | 92.00% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.4% gold 0.0% rare 0.5% Ancient 0.6% red 1.4% classified 10.7% pink 11.2% #d32ee6 2.2% restricted 19.6% #8847ff 14.0% violet 7.2% Mythical 4.0% #4b69ff 6.1% Rare 6.0% mil spec 16.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt