---
title: "The Fracture Case case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "The Fracture Case ($4.79) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.40% from 95 items with odds, observed 49.89% over 28 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/fracture-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [The Fracture Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/fracture-case)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · The Fracture Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/fracture-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/fracture-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/fracture-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/fracture-case?window=all)

Price · $4.79

Advertised RTP · 87.40% · EV $4.19 from 95 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 49.89% · 28 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 5 openings · below min

7 days · 26 openings · below min

30 days · 28 openings · below min

since tracking started · 28 openings · below min

-0.5% 86.8% 174.0%

**Small sample.** 28 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/fracture-case?window=24h) | 5 | 68.81% ±104.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/fracture-case?window=7d) | 26 | 51.05% ±46.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/fracture-case) | 28 | 49.89% ±44.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/fracture-case?window=all) | 28 | 49.89% ±44.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 95 items · odds summed to 0.9831, rescaled · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $66.18 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 1,149 | $55.27 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $50.09 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $48.57 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 7,692 | $42.84 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 4,000 | $41.02 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $39.04 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 621 | $38.97 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $38.15 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 3,846 | $36.97 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,493 | $36.56 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 228 | $36.48 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 246 | $36.05 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 204 | $23.62 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $23.06 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 93 | $13.39 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $12.68 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $11.70 | 5.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-entombed-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $10.98 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 62 | $7.31 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $6.93 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $6.80 | 3.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Entombed (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-entombed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $6.69 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $6.24 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-factory-new) | 1 in 99 | $6.17 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $6.10 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $6.09 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 86 | $6.02 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Entombed (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-entombed-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $5.34 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-brother-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $4.86 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $4.27 | 2.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $4.24 | 2.8% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $4.09 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $4.06 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $4.02 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $3.90 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-connexion-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3.79 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $3.24 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-kitbash-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $3.22 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $2.70 | 2.3% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $2.23 | 2.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $2.00 | 2.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.87× |
| [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.73 | 2.1% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.08× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.48 | 1.6% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-kitbash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.29 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-monster-call-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $1.24 | 1.1% | 4 | 1.0 | 3.88× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-monster-call-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.08 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $0.98 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $0.84 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $0.82 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $0.79 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.78 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 163 | $0.68 | 0.1% | 3 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Allure (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-allure-field-tested) | 1 in 156 | $0.67 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Cassette (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cassette-factory-new) | 1 in 161 | $0.63 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-factory-new) | 1 in 163 | $0.63 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-kitbash-field-tested) | 1 in 146 | $0.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Runic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $0.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Allure (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-allure-battle-scarred) | 1 in 251 | $0.60 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Ultralight (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-ultralight-factory-new) | 1 in 227 | $0.52 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-field-tested) | 1 in 225 | $0.47 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-field-tested) | 1 in 183 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 188 | $0.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 291 | $0.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-well-worn) | 1 in 225 | $0.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-battle-scarred) | 1 in 311 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 1 in 315 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-mainframe-001-minimal-wear) | 1 in 437 | $0.36 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) | 1 in 541 | $0.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Ultralight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-ultralight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 459 | $0.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 450 | $0.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-well-worn) | 1 in 417 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-battle-scarred) | 1 in 420 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Freight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 610 | $0.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-minimal-wear) | 1 in 271 | $0.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Runic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 610 | $0.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Runic (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-well-worn) | 1 in 383 | $0.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Runic (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-runic-well-worn) | 1 in 407 | $0.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-well-worn) | 1 in 637 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Runic (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,754 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,846 | $0.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-well-worn) | 1 in 826 | $0.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-mainframe-001-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,263 | $0.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-mainframe-001-well-worn) | 1 in 3,704 | $0.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 1 in 870 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ol-rusty-field-tested) | 1 in 4,545 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Freight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-field-tested) | 1 in 4,762 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cassette-field-tested) | 1 in 4,167 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Ultralight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,556 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Ultralight (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,250 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-well-worn) | 1 in 862 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/fracture_case`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=fracture-case)

[MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-minimal-wear) [Шуврентий Палыч](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%A8%D1%83%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%9F%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8B%D1%87) $4.79 $0.79 0.16x 2026-11-11 08:51 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) [Шуврентий Палыч](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%A8%D1%83%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%9F%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8B%D1%87) $4.79 $2.00 0.42x 2026-11-11 08:51 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-kitbash-minimal-wear) [Шуврентий Палыч](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%A8%D1%83%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%9F%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8B%D1%87) $4.79 $1.29 0.27x 2026-11-11 08:51 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) [Шуврентий Палыч](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%A8%D1%83%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%9F%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8B%D1%87) $4.79 $11.58 2.42x 2026-11-11 08:51 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) [Шуврентий Палыч](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%A8%D1%83%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%9F%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8B%D1%87) $4.79 $0.82 0.17x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC

[MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-kitbash-factory-new) [GybuLe](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/GybuLe) $4.79 $1.76 0.37x 2026-11-10 06:14 UTC

[MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) [yumo](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/yumo) $4.79 $0.97 0.20x 2026-11-09 23:14 UTC

[MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-minimal-wear) [БАРЯ](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%91%D0%90%D0%A0%D0%AF) $4.79 $0.84 0.18x 2026-11-09 10:11 UTC

[XM1014 | Entombed (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-minimal-wear) [БАРЯ](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%91%D0%90%D0%A0%D0%AF) $4.79 $4.24 0.89x 2026-11-09 10:11 UTC

[Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-factory-new) [LuBOT](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/LuBOT) $4.79 $2.09 0.44x 2026-11-09 08:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $4.79 | 87.40% | 95 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $4.79 | 86.91% | 95 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $4.79 | 87.81% | 95 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $4.79 | 87.39% | 95 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $4.79 | 87.76% | 95 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $4.79 | 87.55% | 95 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $4.79 | 87.40% | 95 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $4.79 | 87.37% | 95 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $4.79 | 87.77% | 95 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $4.79 | 87.46% | 95 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.79 | 86.05% | 95 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $4.79 | 86.61% | 95 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $4.79 | 86.80% | 95 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $4.79 | 86.87% | 95 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $4.79 | 86.08% | 95 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $4.79 | 86.87% | 95 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $4.79 | 87.49% | 95 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $4.79 | 86.57% | 95 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $4.79 | 86.56% | 95 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $4.79 | 87.22% | 95 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $4.79 | 86.99% | 95 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $4.79 | 86.95% | 95 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $4.79 | 87.01% | 95 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $4.79 | 86.83% | 95 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $4.79 | 87.46% | 95 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $4.79 | 86.18% | 95 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $4.79 | 86.51% | 95 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $4.79 | 86.15% | 95 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.79 | 86.95% | 95 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $4.79 | 88.38% | 95 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 0.4% covert 0.6% Ancient 0.1% Covert 0.0% red 0.5% classified 13.4% Legendary 8.0% Classified 5.1% #d32ee6 3.6% #8847ff 22.8% pink 5.8% Restricted 2.5% restricted 8.3% Mythical 16.9% violet 4.3% milspec 2.9% #4b69ff 1.9% #8847FF 0.4% Rare 0.7% Mil Spec Grade 0.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.40 on average: an expected loss of $12.60 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt