---
title: "Frankenstein case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Frankenstein ($12.00) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 35 items with odds, observed 91.37% over 6,459 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/frankenstein-helloween
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:01Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Frankenstein](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/frankenstein-helloween)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Frankenstein

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/frankenstein-helloween?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/frankenstein-helloween?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/frankenstein-helloween) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/frankenstein-helloween?window=all)

Price · $12.00

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $11.04 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.37% · 6,459 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.28% ±9.07 900 openings

7 days · 91.79% ±3.68 5,391 openings

30 days · 91.37% ±3.38 6,459 openings

since tracking started · 91.37% ±3.38 6,459 openings

85.5% 95.3% 105.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/frankenstein-helloween?window=24h) | 900 | 95.28% ±9.07 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/frankenstein-helloween?window=7d) | 5,391 | 91.79% ±3.68 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/frankenstein-helloween) | 6,459 | 91.37% ±3.38 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/frankenstein-helloween?window=all) | 6,459 | 91.37% ±3.38 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,462 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $293 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $248 | 0.3% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $214 | 0.4% | 8 | 1.2 | 6.52× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $195 | 0.2% | 7 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 252 | $137 | 4.9% | 14 | 25.7 | 0.55× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 97 | $101 | 9.4% | 38 | 66.6 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $67.95 | 4.6% | 56 | 47.9 | 1.17× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 89 | $45.93 | 4.7% | 104 | 72.6 | 1.43× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $26.04 | 5.0% | 152 | 137.4 | 1.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $21.76 | 5.0% | 181 | 165.0 | 1.10× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $17.76 | 5.5% | 212 | 220.2 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Falak (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $16.01 | 4.9% | 188 | 216.8 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $15.26 | 2.8% | 178 | 130.3 | 1.37× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $14.61 | 3.5% | 142 | 168.8 | 0.84× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $14.40 | 2.4% | 85 | 117.0 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $14.00 | 2.8% | 101 | 140.7 | 0.72× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $13.56 | 1.8% | 102 | 93.2 | 1.09× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $11.65 | 1.6% | 134 | 95.5 | 1.40× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $11.56 | 2.3% | 150 | 143.3 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $11.37 | 2.8% | 139 | 176.1 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $10.51 | 3.2% | 179 | 220.1 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $9.13 | 1.9% | 158 | 148.0 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $8.35 | 2.4% | 204 | 202.9 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $8.32 | 2.5% | 227 | 212.5 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $7.39 | 2.5% | 222 | 243.8 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $7.19 | 2.2% | 211 | 214.9 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $7.15 | 2.2% | 228 | 218.0 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $6.38 | 2.5% | 299 | 281.2 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $6.05 | 2.0% | 348 | 234.6 | 1.48× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $5.39 | 2.1% | 249 | 277.3 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $5.20 | 2.5% | 332 | 342.6 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $4.64 | 2.4% | 403 | 363.2 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $4.05 | 2.4% | 398 | 423.9 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $3.57 | 2.3% | 476 | 457.1 | 1.04× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $2.38 | 2.0% | 534 | 601.4 | 0.89× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/frankenstein-helloween`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=frankenstein-helloween)

[USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) [Clicky](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Clicky) $12.00 $5.16 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) [Marťas](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mar%C5%A5as) $12.00 $6.25 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[M4A1-S | Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) [Marťas](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mar%C5%A5as) $12.00 $15.33 1.28x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) [НЮХАЙ БЭБРУ](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%9D%D0%AE%D0%A5%D0%90%D0%99%20%D0%91%D0%AD%D0%91%D0%A0%D0%A3) $12.00 $98.11 8.18x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) [НЮХАЙ БЭБРУ](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%D0%9D%D0%AE%D0%A5%D0%90%D0%99%20%D0%91%D0%AD%D0%91%D0%A0%D0%A3) $12.00 $4.03 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $12.00 $4.03 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $12.00 $5.16 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[M4A4 | Falak (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-well-worn) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $12.00 $15.83 1.32x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $12.00 $66.68 5.56x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) [Mugli of the jungle book](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mugli%20of%20the%20jungle%20book) $12.00 $7.44 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $12.00 | 92.02% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $12.00 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $12.00 | 92.05% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $12.00 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $12.00 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $12.00 | 92.03% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $12.00 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $12.00 | 91.99% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $12.00 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $12.00 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $12.00 | 92.05% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $12.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $12.00 | 92.05% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.3% gold 0.0% red 3.2% classified 11.4% pink 13.9% #d32ce6 2.0% #d32ee6 1.4% Legendary 2.7% restricted 17.9% Mythical 18.5% Mil Spec 3.6% blue 6.6% milspec 7.1% #4b69ff 9.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt