---
title: "Full buy case case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Full buy case ($1.79) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.50% from 40 items with odds, observed 82.00% over 2,515 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/full-buy-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Full buy case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/full-buy-case)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Full buy case

A case on GGDROP (bum), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/full-buy-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/full-buy-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/full-buy-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/full-buy-case?window=all)

Price · $1.79

Advertised RTP · 85.50% · EV $1.53 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.00% · 2,515 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79.34% ±11.26 325 openings

7 days · 81.71% ±4.20 2,226 openings

30 days · 82.00% ±3.95 2,515 openings

since tracking started · 82.00% ±3.95 2,515 openings

67.5% 79.3% 91.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/full-buy-case?window=24h) | 325 | 79.34% ±11.3 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/full-buy-case?window=7d) | 2,226 | 81.71% ±4.20 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/full-buy-case) | 2,515 | 82.00% ±3.95 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/full-buy-case?window=all) | 2,515 | 82.00% ±3.95 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds summed to 0.9778, rescaled · observed counts over 2,555 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $50.61 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $31.61 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 9,091 | $26.92 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $26.16 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $21.50 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $20.42 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $20.37 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $18.84 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $17.75 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 813 | $16.88 | 1.4% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $14.74 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 195 | $13.39 | 4.6% | 2 | 13.4 | 0.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 207 | $11.22 | 3.6% | 14 | 12.6 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 284 | $10.09 | 2.4% | 7 | 9.2 | 0.76× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $6.54 | 4.6% | 32 | 27.4 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $4.49 | 6.1% | 50 | 53.2 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $4.15 | 5.7% | 63 | 53.5 | 1.18× |
| [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $3.54 | 5.6% | 57 | 61.6 | 0.93× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $3.05 | 5.0% | 80 | 63.8 | 1.25× |
| [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $2.15 | 5.5% | 93 | 99.2 | 0.94× |
| [AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.72 | 4.6% | 106 | 103.6 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $1.71 | 5.1% | 100 | 117.8 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $1.42 | 4.5% | 108 | 124.2 | 0.87× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $1.38 | 3.0% | 112 | 84.7 | 1.32× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $1.31 | 1.9% | 72 | 57.7 | 1.25× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $1.31 | 2.0% | 72 | 58.9 | 1.22× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $1.30 | 2.1% | 61 | 63.9 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $1.24 | 1.7% | 59 | 54.6 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $1.19 | 1.5% | 60 | 49.5 | 1.21× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $1.18 | 2.1% | 72 | 68.6 | 1.05× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $1.07 | 2.1% | 61 | 78.0 | 0.78× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $1.05 | 2.3% | 81 | 85.8 | 0.94× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.93 | 2.4% | 71 | 101.5 | 0.70× |
| [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.89 | 2.7% | 112 | 119.9 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Ricochet (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-ricochet-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $0.84 | 2.4% | 129 | 110.7 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $0.70 | 2.5% | 153 | 140.6 | 1.09× |
| [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.67 | 2.6% | 161 | 152.5 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-connexion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $0.62 | 2.7% | 155 | 169.1 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.51 | 2.6% | 208 | 198.7 | 1.05× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.40 | 2.2% | 201 | 213.5 | 0.94× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/full-buy-case`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=full-buy-case)

[Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) [stejen](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/stejen) $1.79 $1.19 0.66x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-connexion-battle-scarred) [stejen](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/stejen) $1.79 $0.64 0.36x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) [stejen](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/stejen) $1.79 $1.44 0.80x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) [stejen](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/stejen) $1.79 $0.95 0.53x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-field-tested) [stejen](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/stejen) $1.79 $0.95 0.53x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[AUG | Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) [stejen](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/stejen) $1.79 $1.71 0.96x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[Galil AR | Tuxedo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-battle-scarred) [stejen](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/stejen) $1.79 $0.68 0.38x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[Galil AR | Tuxedo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-battle-scarred) [stejen](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/stejen) $1.79 $0.68 0.38x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Directive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-battle-scarred) [stejen](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/stejen) $1.79 $1.23 0.69x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Directive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-battle-scarred) [stejen](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/stejen) $1.79 $1.23 0.69x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $1.79 | 85.50% | 40 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $1.79 | 87.68% | 40 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $1.79 | 83.28% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $1.79 | 86.32% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.79 | 85.18% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.79 | 85.93% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.79 | 86.71% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.79 | 84.16% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $1.79 | 84.93% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $1.79 | 85.69% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.79 | 84.51% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $1.79 | 83.79% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $1.79 | 84.30% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $1.79 | 84.26% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $1.79 | 83.84% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $1.79 | 85.46% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $1.79 | 83.61% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $1.79 | 83.10% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $1.79 | 85.77% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $1.79 | 85.09% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $1.79 | 85.58% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.79 | 85.68% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.79 | 85.64% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.79 | 82.15% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.79 | 83.01% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.79 | 85.57% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $1.79 | 84.59% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $1.79 | 85.82% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $1.79 | 85.53% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.79 | 83.82% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed blue 0.0% classified 1.1% mil spec 29.0% restricted 30.6% violet 8.0% milspec 6.3% industrial 6.2% Restricted 3.2% Mythical 2.2% #8847ff 11.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.50 on average: an expected loss of $14.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt