---
title: "Ghost case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ghost ($24.00) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.05% from 35 items with odds, observed 91.58% over 5,862 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/ghost-helloween
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Ghost](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/ghost-helloween)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Ghost

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/ghost-helloween?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/ghost-helloween?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/ghost-helloween) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/ghost-helloween?window=all)

Price · $24.00

Advertised RTP · 92.05% · EV $22.09 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.58% · 5,862 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.96% ±8.23 1,019 openings

7 days · 90.46% ±3.74 4,948 openings

30 days · 91.58% ±3.46 5,862 openings

since tracking started · 91.58% ±3.46 5,862 openings

77.0% 86.3% 95.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/ghost-helloween?window=24h) | 1,019 | 85.96% ±8.23 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/ghost-helloween?window=7d) | 4,948 | 90.46% ±3.74 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/ghost-helloween) | 5,862 | 91.58% ±3.46 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/ghost-helloween?window=all) | 5,862 | 91.58% ±3.46 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,880 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $570 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $525 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $411 | 0.3% | 4 | 1.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ghost-protocol-minimal-wear) | 1 in 524 | $310 | 2.7% | 14 | 11.2 | 1.25× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 442 | $277 | 2.8% | 10 | 13.3 | 0.75× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 114 | $199 | 7.9% | 35 | 51.5 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $154 | 4.5% | 52 | 38.2 | 1.36× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) weapon · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 88 | $80.17 | 4.1% | 71 | 66.9 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $56.13 | 4.8% | 130 | 111.7 | 1.16× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $39.70 | 4.2% | 119 | 137.0 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $37.26 | 5.3% | 185 | 185.5 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $36.02 | 4.7% | 137 | 170.6 | 0.80× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $34.00 | 3.1% | 142 | 119.9 | 1.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55 | $33.99 | 2.8% | 116 | 106.4 | 1.09× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $30.58 | 2.3% | 81 | 97.3 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $30.46 | 2.1% | 99 | 89.8 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $29.92 | 2.2% | 94 | 93.4 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $25.92 | 3.3% | 146 | 164.3 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $23.61 | 2.5% | 152 | 138.3 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $23.30 | 3.3% | 151 | 182.0 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $20.37 | 3.1% | 167 | 198.0 | 0.84× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $20.35 | 2.7% | 184 | 171.3 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $16.64 | 2.2% | 190 | 168.1 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $15.73 | 2.9% | 194 | 235.4 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $15.39 | 2.4% | 207 | 202.3 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $14.74 | 2.7% | 207 | 238.3 | 0.87× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $13.59 | 2.1% | 206 | 201.6 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $12.48 | 1.9% | 226 | 199.6 | 1.13× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $11.61 | 2.3% | 245 | 262.1 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $10.38 | 2.4% | 333 | 295.4 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Black Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $9.18 | 2.3% | 353 | 320.6 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $9.04 | 2.3% | 338 | 336.5 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $8.60 | 2.5% | 370 | 380.6 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $7.66 | 2.5% | 445 | 422.5 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Kami (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-kami-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $5.25 | 1.9% | 466 | 467.5 | 1.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/ghost-helloween`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) [ヅDanielヅ](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E3%83%85Daniel%E3%83%85) $24.00 $610 25.43x 2026-11-03 13:24 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Occult (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-occult-field-tested) [Burryoi](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Burryoi) $24.00 $539 22.48x 2026-11-03 16:17 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=ghost-helloween)

[AWP | The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $24.00 $10.47 0.44x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC

[AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-field-tested) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $24.00 $15.24 0.64x 2026-11-11 15:26 UTC

[AWP | Black Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-box-minimal-wear) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $24.00 $9.14 0.38x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC

[AWP | Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $24.00 $9.04 0.38x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $24.00 $23.30 0.97x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $24.00 $13.59 0.57x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC

[AWP | Black Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-box-minimal-wear) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $24.00 $9.18 0.38x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $24.00 $12.48 0.52x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC

[AWP | Acheron (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-factory-new) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $24.00 $8.60 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Kami (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-kami-factory-new) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $24.00 $5.25 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $24.00 | 92.05% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $24.00 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $24.00 | 92.10% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $24.00 | 92.02% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $24.00 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $24.00 | 92.09% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 13.1% legendary 0.0% gold 0.0% red 9.5% epic 0.6% rare 6.8% pink 20.0% classified 13.8% #d32ce6 3.4% restricted 5.5% Mythical 5.7% Rare 6.5% mil spec 7.2% milspec 8.0% best hit $610 (25.43x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.05 on average: an expected loss of $7.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt