---
title: "Golden Knife case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Golden Knife ($299.00) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.94% from 46 items with odds, observed 93.78% over 120 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/golden-knife
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Golden Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/golden-knife)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Golden Knife

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/golden-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/golden-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/golden-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/golden-knife?window=all)

Price · $299.00

Advertised RTP · 91.94% · EV $274.89 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.78% · 120 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 13 openings · below min

7 days · 75 openings · below min

30 days · 93.78% ±11.22 120 openings

since tracking started · 93.78% ±11.22 120 openings

61.0% 98.3% 135.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/golden-knife?window=24h) | 13 | 98.31% ±36.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/golden-knife?window=7d) | 75 | 93.43% ±14.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/golden-knife) | 120 | 93.78% ±11.2 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/golden-knife?window=all) | 120 | 93.78% ±11.2 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 121 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 50 | $877 | 6.4% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 42 | $750 | 6.6% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $608 | 4.4% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $577 | 5.2% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $577 | 4.3% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $560 | 4.0% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.85× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $532 | 3.3% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $484 | 3.0% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| [★ Karambit \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $480 | 4.2% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.34× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $480 | 4.6% | 7 | 3.2 | 2.20× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $474 | 3.1% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.93× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 72 | $446 | 2.3% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $445 | 4.1% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $413 | 3.0% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $331 | 3.1% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.91× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $309 | 2.7% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $280 | 3.5% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $271 | 2.9% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $266 | 2.5% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $229 | 2.0% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.70× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $221 | 1.4% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.89× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $216 | 1.7% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.12× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $213 | 2.2% | 8 | 3.5 | 2.31× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $209 | 1.7% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.12× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $207 | 1.3% | 4 | 2.0 | 1.98× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $189 | 1.3% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.78× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $176 | 1.3% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.19× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $149 | 1.6% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $142 | 1.4% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.25× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $142 | 1.5% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.40× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $136 | 1.1% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $129 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $129 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $123 | 0.8% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $122 | 1.2% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.62× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $96.78 | 0.8% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.50× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $67.64 | 0.8% | 1 | 3.9 | 0.26× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $61.12 | 0.7% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.06× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $60.40 | 1.1% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.65× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $58.82 | 0.7% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.26× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 86 | $57.80 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166 | $55.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 236 | $54.16 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $51.40 | 0.4% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-well-worn) | 1 in 152 | $50.80 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $47.96 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/golden-knife`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [r1stAAAA火影](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/r1stAAAA%E7%81%AB%E5%BD%B1) $299 $706 2.36x 2026-11-07 13:31 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [Enr!en](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Enr!en) $299 $706 2.36x 2026-11-06 17:57 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $299 $676 2.26x 2026-11-08 00:17 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) [Karlix\_a](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Karlix_a) $299 $657 2.20x 2026-11-03 16:41 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) [Karlix\_a](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Karlix_a) $299 $657 2.20x 2026-11-03 16:40 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Lemo](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Lemo) $299 $655 2.19x 2026-11-05 19:12 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $299 $654 2.19x 2026-11-03 08:40 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-battle-scarred) [r1stAAAA火影](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/r1stAAAA%E7%81%AB%E5%BD%B1) $299 $602 2.01x 2026-11-07 09:22 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) [Lemo](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Lemo) $299 $589 1.97x 2026-11-05 19:12 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $299 $588 1.97x 2026-11-07 15:13 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=golden-knife)

[★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $299 $480 1.60x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $299 $575 1.92x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $299 $335 1.12x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $299 $279 0.93x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $299 $559 1.87x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $299 $212 0.71x 2026-11-11 18:18 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [nitro](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/nitro) $299 $141 0.47x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-well-worn) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $299 $60.10 0.20x 2026-11-11 15:26 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $299 $129 0.43x 2026-11-11 15:19 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-field-tested) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $299 $474 1.58x 2026-11-11 15:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $299 | 91.94% | 46 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $299 | 92.00% | 46 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $299 | 91.93% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $299 | 91.91% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $299 | 91.93% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $299 | 92.00% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $299 | 92.00% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $299 | 91.96% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $299 | 91.93% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $299 | 91.91% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $299 | 91.95% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $299 | 91.90% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $299 | 91.93% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $299 | 91.92% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $299 | 91.90% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $299 | 91.99% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $299 | 91.90% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $299 | 91.95% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $299 | 92.00% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $299 | 91.91% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $299 | 92.00% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $299 | 92.00% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $299 | 91.91% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $299 | 91.92% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $299 | 91.94% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $299 | 91.91% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $299 | 91.93% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $299 | 91.96% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $299 | 92.00% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $299 | 91.90% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 40.7% gold 13.3% covert knife 27.0% #ffd700 9.1% Covert 2.4% other 2.4% rare 2.2% sunny 2.5% Immortal 0.4% best hit $706 (2.36x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.94 on average: an expected loss of $8.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt