---
title: "Horizon Case case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Horizon Case ($6.01) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 92 items with odds, observed 114.30% over 88 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/horizoncase
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Horizon Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/horizoncase)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Horizon Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/horizoncase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/horizoncase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/horizoncase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/horizoncase?window=all)

Price · $6.01

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $5.53 from 92 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 114.30% · 88 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 15 openings · below min

7 days · 86 openings · below min

30 days · 88 openings · below min

since tracking started · 88 openings · below min

69.0% 139.5% 210.0%

**Small sample.** 88 openings and 13.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/horizoncase?window=24h) | 15 | 139.65% ±69.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/horizoncase?window=7d) | 86 | 115.01% ±29.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/horizoncase) | 88 | 114.30% ±29.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/horizoncase?window=all) | 88 | 114.30% ±29.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 92 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 88 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $218 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $187 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $139 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,448 | $109 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $92.48 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,562 | $83.25 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $76.59 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $75.73 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $73.46 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,143 | $68.29 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,075 | $59.89 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $56.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 3,125 | $56.38 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $48.69 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 352 | $47.52 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 909 | $46.80 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 862 | $45.93 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-factory-new) | 1 in 1,020 | $41.61 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-eye-of-athena-factory-new) | 1 in 348 | $35.54 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 336 | $27.57 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 147 | $25.01 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 156 | $24.77 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $23.21 | 3.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) | 1 in 104 | $16.72 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $16.66 | 2.9% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $14.15 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 1 in 70 | $14.07 | 3.6% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.40× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-factory-new) | 1 in 97 | $12.16 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $11.19 | 2.4% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.89× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-factory-new) | 1 in 93 | $11.05 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $10.17 | 2.5% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $10.06 | 2.0% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| High Seas (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) | 1 in 109 | $9.64 | 1.6% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $9.18 | 1.9% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.95× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $9.06 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $8.81 | 1.8% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $7.66 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $7.25 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.71× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 60 | $7.15 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $7.12 | 2.0% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-well-worn) | 1 in 76 | $6.09 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.72× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $5.99 | 1.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $5.83 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-warhawk-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $5.80 | 1.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) | 1 in 107 | $5.76 | 1.0% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $5.65 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $5.55 | 1.1% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $5.50 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.92× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $5.42 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $5.37 | 1.7% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.93× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-traction-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $5.02 | 2.0% | 5 | 1.9 | 2.62× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| High Seas (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-high-seas-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $4.51 | 2.1% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.77× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-toy-soldier-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $4.12 | 2.5% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $3.70 | 2.7% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $3.39 | 2.6% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.59× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $2.12 | 1.8% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $2.05 | 1.8% | 0 | 4.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.84 | 1.7% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.45× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| High Seas (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-high-seas-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $1.77 | 1.7% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| High Seas (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-high-seas-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $1.74 | 0.6% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.54× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $1.51 | 0.5% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.42× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $1.42 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $1.36 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-eco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55 | $1.34 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-warhawk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $1.20 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Capillary (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-capillary-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $1.13 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-traction-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $1.04 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 86 | $1.03 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-snek-9-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $1.03 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-amber-slipstream-factory-new) | 1 in 119 | $1.01 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-battle-scarred) | 1 in 97 | $0.93 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-field-tested) | 1 in 235 | $0.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-factory-new) | 1 in 134 | $0.86 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 136 | $0.84 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-warhawk-field-tested) | 1 in 132 | $0.81 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $0.69 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-warhawk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 154 | $0.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-amber-slipstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $0.54 | 0.1% | 3 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-traction-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $0.53 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 218 | $0.52 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-field-tested) | 1 in 153 | $0.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Capillary (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-capillary-well-worn) | 1 in 197 | $0.51 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-well-worn) | 1 in 356 | $0.49 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Shred (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-shred-well-worn) | 1 in 543 | $0.45 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Capillary (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 291 | $0.44 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Shred (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-shred-field-tested) | 1 in 369 | $0.42 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Capillary (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-well-worn) | 1 in 368 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-well-worn) | 1 in 375 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-traction-battle-scarred) | 1 in 268 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-traction-well-worn) | 1 in 369 | $0.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 418 | $0.34 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-amber-slipstream-well-worn) | 1 in 405 | $0.34 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/horizoncase`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=horizoncase)

[StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) [Cutăre$cu](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Cut%C4%83re%24cu) $6.01 $1.82 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[StatTrak™ G3SG1 | High Seas (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-high-seas-minimal-wear) [sewa](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/sewa) $6.01 $4.51 0.75x 2026-11-11 08:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) [StuntCoordinator](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/StuntCoordinator) $6.01 $1.51 0.25x 2026-11-11 08:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ G3SG1 | High Seas (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-high-seas-field-tested) [StuntCoordinator](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/StuntCoordinator) $6.01 $1.74 0.29x 2026-11-11 08:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) [StuntCoordinator](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/StuntCoordinator) $6.01 $1.51 0.25x 2026-11-11 08:00 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-well-worn) [StuntCoordinator](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/StuntCoordinator) $6.01 $0.83 0.14x 2026-11-11 08:00 UTC

[StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-toy-soldier-minimal-wear) [StuntCoordinator](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/StuntCoordinator) $6.01 $4.12 0.69x 2026-11-11 08:00 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-minimal-wear) [StuntCoordinator](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/StuntCoordinator) $6.01 $5.43 0.90x 2026-11-11 08:00 UTC

[G3SG1 | High Seas (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-battle-scarred) [StuntCoordinator](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/StuntCoordinator) $6.01 $0.93 0.15x 2026-11-11 07:59 UTC

[AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) [StuntCoordinator](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/StuntCoordinator) $6.01 $3.39 0.56x 2026-11-11 07:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $6.01 | 92.04% | 92 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $6.01 | 92.08% | 92 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $6.01 | 92.04% | 92 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $6.01 | 92.08% | 92 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $6.01 | 92.01% | 92 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $6.01 | 92.09% | 92 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $6.01 | 92.02% | 92 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $6.01 | 92.05% | 92 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $6.01 | 92.09% | 92 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $6.01 | 92.10% | 92 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.01 | 92.00% | 92 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $6.01 | 92.03% | 92 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $6.01 | 92.08% | 92 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 0.3% classified 13.7% covert 0.8% Covert 0.0% Classified 0.0% pink 3.2% Mythical 10.3% restricted 32.9% Restricted 11.6% mil spec 9.6% milspec 9.0% #8847ff 6.8% Mil Spec Grade 1.2% Rare 0.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt