---
title: "Investor case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Investor ($6.20) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 35 items with odds, observed 93.61% over 8,372 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/investor
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Investor](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/investor)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Investor

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/investor?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/investor?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/investor) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/investor?window=all)

Price · $6.20

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $5.70 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.61% · 8,372 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.24% ±7.83 999 openings

7 days · 93.61% ±3.24 5,845 openings

30 days · 93.61% ±2.76 8,372 openings

since tracking started · 93.61% ±2.76 8,372 openings

83.0% 91.3% 99.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/investor?window=24h) | 999 | 91.24% ±7.83 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/investor?window=7d) | 5,845 | 93.61% ±3.24 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/investor) | 8,372 | 93.61% ±2.76 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/investor?window=all) | 8,372 | 93.61% ±2.76 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,383 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $114 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $101 | 0.3% | 5 | 1.5 | 3.31× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-field-tested) | 1 in 226 | $73.92 | 5.7% | 14 | 37.1 | 0.38× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 794 | $69.74 | 1.5% | 28 | 10.6 | 2.65× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 629 | $54.57 | 1.5% | 43 | 13.3 | 3.23× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 93 | $39.70 | 7.5% | 60 | 90.6 | 0.66× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 149 | $25.92 | 3.0% | 67 | 56.2 | 1.19× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $21.50 | 4.9% | 126 | 109.2 | 1.15× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $13.33 | 5.1% | 189 | 183.3 | 1.03× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $11.61 | 5.3% | 191 | 219.2 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $9.85 | 4.6% | 230 | 222.2 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $8.76 | 4.3% | 233 | 237.3 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $8.48 | 3.8% | 215 | 217.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $7.76 | 2.7% | 211 | 164.3 | 1.28× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $7.37 | 2.5% | 165 | 162.4 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $7.31 | 2.7% | 161 | 175.9 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $7.06 | 2.8% | 166 | 187.4 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $6.32 | 2.3% | 181 | 171.9 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $6.10 | 2.1% | 185 | 164.0 | 1.13× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $5.11 | 2.4% | 229 | 225.5 | 1.02× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $4.99 | 2.9% | 241 | 281.8 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $4.78 | 2.7% | 246 | 266.5 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $4.69 | 3.0% | 302 | 307.0 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $4.18 | 1.6% | 193 | 182.2 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $4.02 | 2.0% | 221 | 240.2 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $3.94 | 2.4% | 245 | 287.4 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.40 | 2.4% | 317 | 339.8 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $3.32 | 2.1% | 319 | 299.2 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $3.08 | 2.2% | 362 | 342.1 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.88 | 2.6% | 458 | 436.8 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $2.45 | 2.0% | 403 | 396.0 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $2.37 | 2.3% | 474 | 472.5 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $2.07 | 2.4% | 561 | 560.1 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.56 | 2.1% | 670 | 628.7 | 1.07× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $1.24 | 1.8% | 670 | 692.6 | 0.97× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/investor`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=investor)

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) [plovvazon](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/plovvazon) $6.20 $2.39 0.39x 2026-11-11 19:27 UTC

[AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) [Janissary22](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Janissary22) $6.20 $2.49 0.40x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

[P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) [m4tr1xk0](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/m4tr1xk0) $6.20 $5.02 0.81x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

[AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) [Janissary22](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Janissary22) $6.20 $2.49 0.40x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) [Janissary22](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Janissary22) $6.20 $4.75 0.77x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC

[Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) [m4tr1xk0](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/m4tr1xk0) $6.20 $1.56 0.25x 2026-11-11 19:14 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) [m4tr1xk0](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/m4tr1xk0) $6.20 $4.16 0.67x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Buddy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-minimal-wear) [m4tr1xk0](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/m4tr1xk0) $6.20 $1.24 0.20x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) [m4tr1xk0](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/m4tr1xk0) $6.20 $5.02 0.81x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) [m4tr1xk0](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/m4tr1xk0) $6.20 $7.40 1.19x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $6.20 | 92.03% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $6.20 | 92.05% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $6.20 | 92.06% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $6.20 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $6.20 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $6.20 | 92.01% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.0% covert 1.3% extraordinary 0.4% Ancient 0.1% red 0.7% classified 5.2% pink 24.6% Legendary 10.7% #d32ce6 7.9% Classified 3.4% Mythical 11.1% violet 9.7% restricted 18.2% Restricted 6.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt