---
title: "Jester case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Jester ($35.75) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.08% from 55 items with odds, observed 91.76% over 6,927 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/jester
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Jester](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/jester)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Jester

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/jester?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/jester?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/jester) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/jester?window=all)

Price · $35.75

Advertised RTP · 92.08% · EV $32.92 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.76% · 6,927 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.11% ±6.73 802 openings

7 days · 91.87% ±2.49 5,877 openings

30 days · 91.76% ±2.29 6,927 openings

since tracking started · 91.76% ±2.29 6,927 openings

81.5% 89.0% 96.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/jester?window=24h) | 802 | 89.11% ±6.73 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/jester?window=7d) | 5,877 | 91.87% ±2.49 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/jester) | 6,927 | 91.76% ±2.29 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/jester?window=all) | 6,927 | 91.76% ±2.29 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,936 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 971 | $305 | 1.0% | 35 | 7.1 | 4.90× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-battle-scarred) | 1 in 179 | $232 | 3.9% | 33 | 38.7 | 0.85× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 219 | $206 | 2.9% | 46 | 31.6 | 1.45× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 151 | $183 | 3.7% | 35 | 45.8 | 0.76× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $161 | 3.7% | 43 | 53.0 | 0.81× |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 136 | $144 | 3.2% | 48 | 50.8 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-well-worn) | 1 in 110 | $97.02 | 2.7% | 78 | 62.8 | 1.24× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 107 | $96.43 | 2.7% | 49 | 64.6 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $89.16 | 2.9% | 57 | 73.2 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $82.18 | 3.2% | 79 | 89.7 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $75.73 | 1.7% | 56 | 52.2 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 138 | $75.16 | 1.7% | 63 | 50.2 | 1.25× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $71.63 | 2.2% | 50 | 69.5 | 0.72× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $68.49 | 1.8% | 51 | 59.0 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 218 | $59.21 | 0.8% | 49 | 31.8 | 1.54× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $58.10 | 1.5% | 46 | 57.0 | 0.81× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $56.68 | 2.0% | 75 | 79.1 | 0.95× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $56.48 | 1.6% | 51 | 66.2 | 0.77× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 228 | $55.79 | 0.7% | 46 | 30.4 | 1.51× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-well-worn) | 1 in 186 | $55.75 | 0.9% | 60 | 37.4 | 1.60× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 196 | $54.51 | 0.8% | 37 | 35.4 | 1.05× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 198 | $52.91 | 0.8% | 47 | 35.0 | 1.34× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 180 | $51.87 | 0.9% | 53 | 38.6 | 1.37× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Well-Worn) gloves · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-well-worn) | 1 in 145 | $50.71 | 1.1% | 32 | 47.9 | 0.67× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-field-tested) | 1 in 137 | $49.86 | 1.1% | 36 | 50.6 | 0.71× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 137 | $49.18 | 1.1% | 55 | 50.6 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 126 | $48.69 | 1.2% | 59 | 54.9 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $46.54 | 1.1% | 60 | 52.1 | 1.15× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $45.80 | 1.3% | 67 | 65.6 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $39.67 | 1.6% | 75 | 92.0 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $39.41 | 1.5% | 87 | 86.3 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $38.33 | 1.6% | 92 | 94.7 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $37.91 | 1.8% | 117 | 109.9 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-well-worn) | 1 in 102 | $36.32 | 1.1% | 78 | 68.3 | 1.14× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $36.16 | 1.2% | 60 | 73.5 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $33.87 | 1.1% | 89 | 76.7 | 1.16× |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $33.80 | 1.3% | 87 | 89.4 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $33.53 | 1.3% | 81 | 87.5 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $31.96 | 1.5% | 100 | 107.4 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $30.26 | 1.3% | 121 | 96.3 | 1.26× |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $29.48 | 1.5% | 154 | 119.3 | 1.29× |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $27.98 | 1.7% | 139 | 138.9 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $27.59 | 1.9% | 172 | 158.6 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $26.86 | 1.9% | 167 | 162.2 | 1.03× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $23.19 | 1.9% | 214 | 189.5 | 1.13× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $22.84 | 2.0% | 150 | 199.5 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $21.50 | 2.3% | 189 | 241.0 | 0.78× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $21.35 | 2.5% | 279 | 272.3 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $20.69 | 2.3% | 255 | 253.4 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $16.78 | 2.3% | 299 | 308.7 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $14.50 | 2.2% | 373 | 342.0 | 1.09× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $14.40 | 2.7% | 394 | 421.6 | 0.93× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $11.09 | 2.6% | 533 | 526.4 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $6.28 | 1.5% | 517 | 553.5 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $5.50 | 1.4% | 618 | 586.2 | 1.05× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/jester`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=jester)

[AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) [BAR1NABA1](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/BAR1NABA1) $35.75 $37.27 1.04x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) [♪♫skrrrr♫♪](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/%E2%99%AA%E2%99%ABskrrrr%E2%99%AB%E2%99%AA) $35.75 $14.31 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[AK-47 | B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) [Makarik\_y](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Makarik_y) $35.75 $80.89 2.26x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) [Makarik\_y](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Makarik_y) $35.75 $14.31 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [L4he$T](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/L4he%24T) $35.75 $54.16 1.51x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) [L4he$T](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/L4he%24T) $35.75 $6.20 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [L4he$T](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/L4he%24T) $35.75 $49.37 1.38x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) [moNic](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/moNic) $35.75 $6.20 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) [L4he$T](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/L4he%24T) $35.75 $46.21 1.29x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-field-tested) [moNic](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/moNic) $35.75 $11.02 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $35.75 | 92.08% | 55 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $35.75 | 92.00% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $35.75 | 92.00% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $35.75 | 92.04% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $35.75 | 92.00% | 55 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $35.75 | 92.00% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $35.75 | 92.00% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $35.75 | 92.00% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $35.75 | 92.00% | 55 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $35.75 | 92.05% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $35.75 | 92.03% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $35.75 | 92.00% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $35.75 | 92.03% | 55 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $35.75 | 92.09% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $35.75 | 92.00% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $35.75 | 92.00% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $35.75 | 92.09% | 55 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $35.75 | 92.01% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $35.75 | 92.07% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $35.75 | 92.06% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $35.75 | 92.00% | 55 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $35.75 | 92.05% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $35.75 | 92.00% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $35.75 | 92.00% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $35.75 | 92.04% | 55 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $35.75 | 92.09% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $35.75 | 92.00% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $35.75 | 92.02% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $35.75 | 92.00% | 55 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $35.75 | 92.00% | 55 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 15.4% rare 4.6% epic 0.5% extraordinary 1.5% restricted 0.7% classified 29.1% gold 2.2% #eb4b4b 0.7% red 4.0% Classified 4.4% #d32ce6 9.0% Legendary 7.8% pink 20.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.08 on average: an expected loss of $7.92 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt