---
title: "Kilowatt Case case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Kilowatt Case ($4.00) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.00% from 50 items with odds, observed 89.75% over 193 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/kilowatt-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Kilowatt Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/kilowatt-case)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Kilowatt Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/kilowatt-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/kilowatt-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/kilowatt-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/kilowatt-case?window=all)

Price · $4.00

Advertised RTP · 92.00% · EV $3.68 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.75% · 193 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 88.91% ±26.05 166 openings

30 days · 89.75% ±24.24 193 openings

since tracking started · 89.75% ±24.24 193 openings

31.0% 183.8% 336.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/kilowatt-case?window=24h) | 6 | 183.79% ±152.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/kilowatt-case?window=7d) | 166 | 88.91% ±26.1 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/kilowatt-case) | 193 | 89.75% ±24.2 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/kilowatt-case?window=all) | 193 | 89.75% ±24.2 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 193 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $120 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 395 | $92.55 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $37.43 | 13.2% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 588 | $33.99 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $29.65 | 6.2% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 85 | $28.25 | 9.1% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 135 | $27.88 | 5.6% | 4 | 1.4 | 2.80× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $12.95 | 10.3% | 8 | 5.6 | 1.42× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $6.87 | 7.0% | 11 | 7.2 | 1.53× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $4.81 | 5.8% | 15 | 8.6 | 1.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $4.35 | 6.8% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $3.77 | 6.3% | 10 | 11.8 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $3.58 | 5.1% | 1 | 10.1 | 0.10× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $3.45 | 4.2% | 11 | 8.6 | 1.28× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $3.40 | 4.1% | 16 | 8.5 | 1.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $0.81 | 1.2% | 15 | 10.2 | 1.47× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.58 | 0.9% | 21 | 11.2 | 1.87× |
| [Tec-9 \| Slag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.58 | 1.2% | 17 | 14.2 | 1.20× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.51 | 1.1% | 16 | 15.6 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.50 | 1.3% | 9 | 17.9 | 0.50× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.50 | 1.2% | 12 | 17.5 | 0.69× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $0.47 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-well-worn) | 1 in 117 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.61× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) | 1 in 571 | $0.45 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 1 in 218 | $0.42 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-battle-scarred) | 1 in 224 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-well-worn) | 1 in 154 | $0.41 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.80× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 690 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-well-worn) | 1 in 185 | $0.40 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 365 | $0.38 | 0.0% | 3 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-well-worn) | 1 in 714 | $0.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-factory-new) | 1 in 685 | $0.38 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dezastre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 287 | $0.38 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-factory-new) | 1 in 329 | $0.34 | 0.0% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-factory-new) | 1 in 135 | $0.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 288 | $0.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 148 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Irezumi (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 113 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-well-worn) | 1 in 128 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 246 | $0.16 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 417 | $0.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) | 1 in 279 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Irezumi (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-irezumi-field-tested) | 1 in 180 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-field-tested) | 1 in 422 | $0.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 185 | $0.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-field-tested) | 1 in 293 | $0.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Slag (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-field-tested) | 1 in 293 | $0.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-field-tested) | 1 in 426 | $0.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Irezumi (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-irezumi-field-tested) | 1 in 296 | $0.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/kilowatt-case`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=kilowatt-case)

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) [Tamara Romanova](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Tamara%20Romanova) $4.00 $6.90 1.73x 2026-11-11 15:51 UTC

[MP7 | Just Smile (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-battle-scarred) [Fame to nation](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Fame%20to%20nation) $4.00 $0.59 0.15x 2026-11-11 10:38 UTC

[AWP | Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $4.00 $28.44 7.11x 2026-11-11 01:06 UTC

[MP7 | Just Smile (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-well-worn) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $4.00 $0.40 0.10x 2026-11-11 01:06 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) [Phylong](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Phylong) $4.00 $4.32 1.08x 2026-11-11 01:05 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) [Kapitein](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Kapitein) $4.00 $3.46 0.87x 2026-11-10 23:13 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) [cigiG](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/cigiG) $4.00 $3.47 0.87x 2026-11-10 16:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Block-18 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-well-worn) [cigiG](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/cigiG) $4.00 $0.50 0.13x 2026-11-10 16:21 UTC

[Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-factory-new) [Mami](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mami) $4.00 $0.54 0.14x 2026-11-10 13:42 UTC

[Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-minimal-wear) [Mami](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mami) $4.00 $0.78 0.20x 2026-11-10 13:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $4.00 | 92.04% | 50 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $4.00 | 92.01% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $4.00 | 92.01% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $4.00 | 92.04% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.00 | 92.03% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $4.00 | 92.10% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $4.00 | 92.05% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $4.00 | 92.03% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $4.00 | 92.01% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $4.00 | 92.09% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $4.00 | 92.07% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.00 | 92.00% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $4.00 | 92.01% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.0% covert knife 0.3% red 4.2% pink 16.2% Classified 9.5% classified 6.1% violet 47.8% milspec 7.4% blue 3.8% Mil Spec 0.3% Rare 0.7% #4b69ff 3.0% Mil Spec Grade 0.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.00 on average: an expected loss of $8.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt