---
title: "Knight case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Knight ($3.89) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.96% from 28 items with odds, observed 92.57% over 3,012 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/knight
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Knight](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/knight)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Knight

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/knight?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/knight?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/knight) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/knight?window=all)

Price · $3.89

Advertised RTP · 91.96% · EV $3.58 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.57% · 3,012 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.53% ±4.83 518 openings

7 days · 92.64% ±2.06 2,766 openings

30 days · 92.57% ±1.98 3,012 openings

since tracking started · 92.57% ±1.98 3,012 openings

88.0% 93.5% 99.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/knight?window=24h) | 518 | 93.53% ±4.83 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/knight?window=7d) | 2,766 | 92.64% ±2.06 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/knight) | 3,012 | 92.57% ±1.98 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/knight?window=all) | 3,012 | 92.57% ±1.98 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,012 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $10.06 | 10.8% | 108 | 115.5 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $6.12 | 9.6% | 140 | 168.9 | 0.83× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $5.99 | 7.0% | 133 | 125.9 | 1.06× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $5.81 | 7.0% | 116 | 130.5 | 0.89× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $5.76 | 6.3% | 111 | 117.8 | 0.94× |
| [Galil AR \| Shattered (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $5.72 | 3.2% | 109 | 60.0 | 1.82× |
| [AUG \| Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $5.46 | 3.6% | 91 | 70.7 | 1.29× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $5.02 | 3.5% | 79 | 75.2 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $4.75 | 3.5% | 85 | 78.6 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $4.62 | 4.3% | 84 | 99.2 | 0.85× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $4.50 | 2.9% | 112 | 69.5 | 1.61× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $4.16 | 2.8% | 100 | 73.4 | 1.36× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $3.66 | 4.1% | 116 | 119.8 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $3.42 | 3.6% | 120 | 112.7 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $3.42 | 3.6% | 114 | 112.1 | 1.02× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $3.27 | 3.9% | 122 | 128.7 | 0.95× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $2.69 | 3.1% | 109 | 125.1 | 0.87× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $2.36 | 2.6% | 113 | 119.7 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.08 | 2.9% | 136 | 147.6 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $2.03 | 2.6% | 150 | 135.8 | 1.10× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.34 | 2.2% | 149 | 179.8 | 0.83× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $1.28 | 2.0% | 162 | 168.7 | 0.96× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.22 | 1.6% | 142 | 137.9 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $1.16 | 2.0% | 139 | 188.0 | 0.74× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-well-worn) | 1 in 63 | $1.10 | 0.5% | 67 | 48.0 | 1.40× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fraise-crane-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $1.10 | 0.4% | 57 | 41.2 | 1.38× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $1.08 | 0.5% | 42 | 49.1 | 0.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 243 | $0.53 | 0.1% | 6 | 12.4 | 0.48× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/knight`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=knight)

[Sawed-Off | Devourer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-battle-scarred) [CS.PRO AEZY](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CS.PRO%20AEZY) $3.89 $5.90 1.52x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) [CS.PRO AEZY](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CS.PRO%20AEZY) $3.89 $3.41 0.88x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) [CS.PRO AEZY](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CS.PRO%20AEZY) $3.89 $5.81 1.49x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[Tec-9 | Remote Control (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-well-worn) [CS.PRO AEZY](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CS.PRO%20AEZY) $3.89 $2.35 0.60x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[Glock-18 | Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) [CS.PRO AEZY](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/CS.PRO%20AEZY) $3.89 $4.73 1.22x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) [Cabiseeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Cabiseeek) $3.89 $4.62 1.19x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) [Indiferent](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Indiferent) $3.89 $1.22 0.31x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC

[AUG | Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-well-worn) [Stihl](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Stihl) $3.89 $5.46 1.40x 2026-11-11 11:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) [no4ort](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/no4ort) $3.89 $4.62 1.19x 2026-11-11 11:05 UTC

[Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) [Sor1nelenski](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Sor1nelenski) $3.89 $1.33 0.34x 2026-11-11 09:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $3.89 | 91.96% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $3.89 | 91.96% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $3.89 | 91.91% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $3.89 | 91.91% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $3.89 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $3.89 | 91.95% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $3.89 | 91.92% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $3.89 | 91.96% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $3.89 | 91.96% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $3.89 | 91.99% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $3.89 | 91.98% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $3.89 | 91.93% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $3.89 | 91.96% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $3.89 | 91.98% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $3.89 | 91.94% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $3.89 | 91.96% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $3.89 | 91.93% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $3.89 | 91.93% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $3.89 | 91.99% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $3.89 | 91.91% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $3.89 | 91.93% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.89 | 92.00% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $3.89 | 91.97% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $3.89 | 91.96% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $3.89 | 91.93% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $3.89 | 91.97% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $3.89 | 91.95% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.89 | 91.97% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.89 | 91.91% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $3.89 | 91.94% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 24.2% mil spec 8.0% restricted 16.9% #8847ff 11.2% pink 20.2% #d32ee6 3.3% Mythical 2.4% Classified 4.0% Rare 5.3% violet 3.2% #4b69ff 1.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.96 on average: an expected loss of $8.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt