---
title: "M4A1-S case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M4A1-S ($9.65) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.17% from 147 items with odds, observed 92.22% over 1,612 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a1s
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [M4A1-S](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a1s)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · M4A1-S

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a1s?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a1s?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a1s) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a1s?window=all)

Price · $9.65

Advertised RTP · 91.17% · EV $8.80 from 147 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.22% · 1,612 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.20% ±19.32 273 openings

7 days · 89.57% ±10.74 1,394 openings

30 days · 92.22% ±9.70 1,612 openings

since tracking started · 92.22% ±9.70 1,612 openings

61.0% 81.7% 102.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a1s?window=24h) | 273 | 81.20% ±19.3 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a1s?window=7d) | 1,394 | 89.57% ±10.7 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a1s) | 1,612 | 92.22% ±9.70 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a1s?window=all) | 1,612 | 92.22% ±9.70 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 147 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,614 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $262 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $253 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $249 | 0.5% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $234 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $218 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $214 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $210 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $210 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $207 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $203 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $200 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $200 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $198 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $195 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $195 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $193 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $193 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $189 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $188 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $185 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $181 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $151 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 3,846 | $146 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $135 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $134 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $133 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $132 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $131 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 9,091 | $130 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $130 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,333 | $129 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,333 | $128 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $127 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $126 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $124 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $123 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $119 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $117 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $114 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $113 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $111 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $109 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $106 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $99.08 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $96.75 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $92.11 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $86.65 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $80.41 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $75.56 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 730 | $67.45 | 1.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $66.27 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $66.16 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,263 | $62.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,176 | $59.30 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $55.40 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) | 1 in 588 | $55.11 | 1.1% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $54.39 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $51.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 3,226 | $46.78 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) | 1 in 1,562 | $45.71 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 649 | $44.77 | 0.8% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $43.20 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $43.14 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 1,031 | $42.62 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $38.68 | 0.1% | 5 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-leaded-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 962 | $37.54 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 413 | $35.38 | 1.0% | 1 | 3.9 | 0.26× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 1,099 | $33.87 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 441 | $33.69 | 0.9% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $33.34 | 0.6% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 405 | $31.95 | 0.9% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $31.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,762 | $30.98 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 752 | $28.25 | 0.4% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.39× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 413 | $27.57 | 0.8% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.53× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 339 | $27.41 | 0.9% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 926 | $27.39 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $27.09 | 0.0% | 3 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 535 | $27.01 | 0.6% | 0 | 3.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 493 | $26.87 | 0.6% | 11 | 3.3 | 3.35× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) | 1 in 386 | $25.81 | 0.8% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 541 | $25.13 | 0.5% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.34× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,124 | $25.01 | 0.3% | 9 | 1.4 | 6.24× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 227 | $24.77 | 1.2% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.56× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 186 | $23.98 | 1.5% | 10 | 8.7 | 1.15× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 277 | $23.88 | 1.0% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.20× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 212 | $23.21 | 1.2% | 4 | 7.6 | 0.52× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 126 | $21.70 | 2.0% | 13 | 12.9 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $20.48 | 1.8% | 11 | 12.5 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $19.76 | 2.4% | 12 | 17.0 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $19.36 | 2.4% | 23 | 17.6 | 1.31× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 89 | $18.16 | 2.3% | 26 | 18.1 | 1.43× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 82 | $14.35 | 2.0% | 17 | 19.8 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $14.02 | 2.1% | 16 | 20.8 | 0.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $13.87 | 2.3% | 20 | 23.1 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $13.42 | 2.9% | 26 | 31.1 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 107 | $13.27 | 1.4% | 26 | 15.1 | 1.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $11.72 | 1.2% | 18 | 14.7 | 1.23× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 104 | $11.64 | 1.3% | 19 | 15.6 | 1.22× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 82 | $11.35 | 1.6% | 17 | 19.8 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 70 | $11.27 | 1.8% | 13 | 23.0 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 151 | $11.21 | 0.8% | 15 | 10.8 | 1.39× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-well-worn) | 1 in 99 | $10.79 | 1.2% | 19 | 16.3 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $10.52 | 1.1% | 18 | 15.3 | 1.17× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $10.38 | 1.5% | 12 | 20.0 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $10.06 | 1.5% | 31 | 20.9 | 1.48× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $9.66 | 1.6% | 24 | 23.3 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $8.28 | 1.5% | 27 | 25.1 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $8.27 | 1.9% | 26 | 33.1 | 0.78× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $7.91 | 2.0% | 41 | 35.3 | 1.16× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $7.25 | 2.0% | 32 | 39.1 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $7.12 | 1.4% | 26 | 27.2 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $6.93 | 1.7% | 38 | 34.3 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $6.07 | 1.6% | 34 | 36.5 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $6.02 | 1.3% | 25 | 31.3 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $5.73 | 1.4% | 34 | 35.1 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $5.56 | 1.7% | 32 | 43.7 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $5.19 | 0.9% | 44 | 25.6 | 1.72× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $4.90 | 1.1% | 21 | 31.4 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $4.73 | 1.1% | 51 | 33.2 | 1.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $4.59 | 1.2% | 31 | 36.7 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $4.51 | 1.1% | 43 | 34.3 | 1.25× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $4.41 | 1.0% | 48 | 33.6 | 1.43× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $4.27 | 1.2% | 37 | 39.6 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $3.38 | 1.1% | 46 | 45.8 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $3.25 | 1.2% | 48 | 52.3 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $2.43 | 1.1% | 54 | 62.8 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.97 | 1.0% | 67 | 73.6 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.80 | 0.7% | 64 | 56.4 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $1.77 | 0.8% | 49 | 63.4 | 0.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $1.24 | 0.4% | 24 | 41.1 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $1.22 | 0.2% | 46 | 26.8 | 1.72× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $1.20 | 0.2% | 35 | 24.9 | 1.40× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $0.93 | 0.2% | 21 | 31.8 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 1 in 124 | $0.75 | 0.1% | 10 | 13.1 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 109 | $0.72 | 0.1% | 28 | 14.9 | 1.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $0.70 | 0.1% | 9 | 15.5 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 162 | $0.53 | 0.0% | 4 | 10.0 | 0.40× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 424 | $0.52 | 0.0% | 9 | 3.8 | 2.35× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-well-worn) | 1 in 296 | $0.51 | 0.0% | 11 | 5.5 | 2.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 216 | $0.49 | 0.0% | 3 | 7.5 | 0.40× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 680 | $0.41 | 0.0% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-well-worn) | 1 in 662 | $0.35 | 0.0% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 233 | $0.32 | 0.0% | 4 | 7.0 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 621 | $0.32 | 0.0% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 833 | $0.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 459 | $0.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/m4a1s`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=m4a1s)

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) [NOT ASL](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/NOT%20ASL) $9.65 $1.20 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) [NOT ASL](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/NOT%20ASL) $9.65 $1.96 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) [NOT ASL](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/NOT%20ASL) $9.65 $2.50 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) [Zygzak McQueen](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Zygzak%20McQueen) $9.65 $1.21 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) [Zygzak McQueen](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Zygzak%20McQueen) $9.65 $4.57 0.47x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Briefing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-battle-scarred) [Zygzak McQueen](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Zygzak%20McQueen) $9.65 $4.24 0.44x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-minimal-wear) [Zygzak McQueen](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Zygzak%20McQueen) $9.65 $1.95 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) [Zygzak McQueen](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Zygzak%20McQueen) $9.65 $1.19 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) [Zygzak McQueen](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Zygzak%20McQueen) $9.65 $2.42 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) [Nonesy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Nonesy) $9.65 $7.24 0.75x 2026-11-11 12:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $9.65 | 91.17% | 147 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $9.65 | 91.44% | 147 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $9.65 | 91.33% | 147 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $9.65 | 91.50% | 147 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $9.65 | 91.59% | 147 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $9.65 | 91.55% | 147 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $9.65 | 91.34% | 147 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $9.65 | 91.12% | 147 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $9.65 | 91.56% | 147 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $9.65 | 90.90% | 147 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $9.65 | 91.37% | 147 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $9.65 | 91.07% | 147 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $9.65 | 91.00% | 147 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $9.65 | 91.40% | 147 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $9.65 | 91.74% | 147 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $9.65 | 91.75% | 147 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $9.65 | 91.82% | 147 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $9.65 | 91.11% | 147 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $9.65 | 91.13% | 147 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $9.65 | 91.06% | 147 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $9.65 | 91.66% | 147 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $9.65 | 91.15% | 147 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $9.65 | 90.98% | 147 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $9.65 | 91.43% | 147 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $9.65 | 91.51% | 147 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $9.65 | 91.84% | 147 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $9.65 | 91.92% | 147 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $9.65 | 91.43% | 147 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $9.65 | 91.24% | 147 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $9.65 | 91.45% | 147 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.6% epic 0.0% classified 15.8% Covert 0.0% Classified 0.1% Ancient 0.0% red 0.1% Mythical 15.3% industrial 1.4% restricted 13.8% mil spec 9.1% rare 0.2% pink 5.2% Mil Spec Grade 1.1% Legendary 0.9% milspec 3.2% violet 11.0% #8847ff 10.8% Rare 2.3% #d32ee6 2.1% blue 2.3% Restricted 3.9% Uncommon 0.4% Industrial Grade 0.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.17 on average: an expected loss of $8.83 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt