---
title: "M4A4 case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M4A4 ($7.21) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.31% from 148 items with odds, observed 90.79% over 1,118 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a4
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [M4A4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a4)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · M4A4

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a4?window=all)

Price · $7.21

Advertised RTP · 91.31% · EV $6.58 from 148 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.79% · 1,118 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.48% ±24.70 163 openings

7 days · 89.77% ±11.27 807 openings

30 days · 90.79% ±9.56 1,118 openings

since tracking started · 90.79% ±9.56 1,118 openings

68.0% 93.5% 119.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a4?window=24h) | 163 | 93.48% ±24.7 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a4?window=7d) | 807 | 89.77% ±11.3 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a4) | 1,118 | 90.79% ±9.56 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/m4a4?window=all) | 1,118 | 90.79% ±9.56 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 148 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,118 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $292 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,667 | $280 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $236 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $204 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $157 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,143 | $144 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $136 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $134 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $133 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $132 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $130 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $126 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-hellfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $126 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $119 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $117 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-buzz-kill-well-worn) | 1 in 5,882 | $114 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $112 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $111 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $102 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $101 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $99.82 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $97.89 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $96.83 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $95.08 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 1 in 4,545 | $94.00 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-well-worn) | 1 in 8,333 | $93.85 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $93.71 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $92.68 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $90.46 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $89.51 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-well-worn) | 1 in 7,692 | $89.09 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $87.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 9,091 | $86.63 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $86.20 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $85.35 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $84.24 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $83.15 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $80.08 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $80.02 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $79.64 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $76.72 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $73.04 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,348 | $71.83 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $70.65 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $68.20 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $67.90 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $62.83 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $60.35 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $60.08 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $59.89 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,381 | $58.85 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $52.31 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $51.87 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $51.45 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $47.97 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $47.75 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $47.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $42.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-well-worn) | 1 in 2,703 | $42.80 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $41.69 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $37.13 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $36.57 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 602 | $35.92 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 2,703 | $35.54 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $35.32 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-well-worn) | 1 in 935 | $35.24 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-well-worn) | 1 in 9,091 | $34.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 4,167 | $34.45 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 2,174 | $34.22 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,348 | $33.92 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,882 | $33.72 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 1,351 | $33.41 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $33.29 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $33.11 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,125 | $33.06 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $32.88 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $31.92 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $31.62 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,556 | $30.93 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 602 | $30.65 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-in-living-color-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,250 | $30.40 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 508 | $28.66 | 0.9% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.36× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 446 | $28.06 | 1.0% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 1,333 | $27.81 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-well-worn) | 1 in 301 | $25.55 | 1.3% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-factory-new) | 1 in 909 | $23.10 | 0.4% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.24× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 208 | $21.35 | 1.6% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-well-worn) | 1 in 400 | $20.62 | 0.8% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-minimal-wear) | 1 in 391 | $20.02 | 0.8% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.39× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-well-worn) | 1 in 1,042 | $19.92 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 306 | $19.87 | 1.0% | 0 | 3.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-battle-scarred) | 1 in 308 | $19.65 | 1.0% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.65× |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 285 | $18.59 | 1.0% | 1 | 3.9 | 0.25× |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-field-tested) | 1 in 212 | $18.08 | 1.3% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 247 | $17.72 | 1.1% | 11 | 4.5 | 2.42× |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 169 | $17.55 | 1.6% | 2 | 6.6 | 0.30× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 204 | $15.05 | 1.1% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 155 | $14.80 | 1.5% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $14.37 | 1.6% | 4 | 8.3 | 0.48× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $13.64 | 2.1% | 11 | 11.2 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 191 | $13.63 | 1.1% | 13 | 5.9 | 2.21× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 146 | $13.53 | 1.4% | 10 | 7.7 | 1.30× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-well-worn) | 1 in 201 | $13.33 | 1.0% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 195 | $13.23 | 1.0% | 9 | 5.7 | 1.57× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $12.50 | 1.0% | 6 | 6.1 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 175 | $12.26 | 1.1% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $11.58 | 1.6% | 8 | 10.1 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 77 | $11.02 | 2.2% | 11 | 14.6 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $10.31 | 1.9% | 10 | 13.3 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $10.24 | 2.0% | 8 | 14.2 | 0.57× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $9.63 | 1.8% | 13 | 14.1 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $9.03 | 1.7% | 15 | 14.0 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $8.77 | 1.8% | 17 | 15.1 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $8.02 | 1.8% | 19 | 16.3 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-griffin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 82 | $7.89 | 1.5% | 8 | 13.7 | 0.59× |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $7.74 | 1.7% | 16 | 15.8 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 68 | $7.70 | 1.7% | 15 | 16.5 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 95 | $7.55 | 1.2% | 14 | 11.8 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $6.90 | 1.4% | 20 | 14.6 | 1.37× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $6.81 | 1.5% | 21 | 16.1 | 1.30× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $6.38 | 1.6% | 32 | 18.6 | 1.72× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-faded-zebra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $6.36 | 2.0% | 27 | 23.0 | 1.17× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $6.08 | 1.6% | 14 | 19.7 | 0.71× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $5.92 | 1.7% | 21 | 21.4 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $5.74 | 1.7% | 25 | 21.4 | 1.17× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $5.31 | 1.8% | 18 | 25.4 | 0.71× |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $4.75 | 1.8% | 28 | 27.6 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $4.09 | 1.9% | 25 | 34.0 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $4.06 | 2.1% | 33 | 38.4 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $4.03 | 2.1% | 38 | 38.6 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $3.83 | 1.8% | 39 | 34.4 | 1.13× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $3.57 | 1.3% | 36 | 26.3 | 1.37× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $3.44 | 1.6% | 39 | 33.8 | 1.15× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $3.28 | 1.8% | 31 | 41.4 | 0.75× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.75 | 1.1% | 48 | 47.9 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $1.58 | 1.2% | 46 | 53.6 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.44 | 1.3% | 52 | 64.4 | 0.81× |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.89 | 0.9% | 96 | 78.0 | 1.23× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $0.69 | 0.3% | 40 | 32.0 | 1.25× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $0.66 | 0.3% | 30 | 29.8 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.63 | 0.3% | 36 | 30.9 | 1.16× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 113 | $0.55 | 0.1% | 17 | 9.9 | 1.72× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-factory-new) | 1 in 185 | $0.32 | 0.0% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 213 | $0.26 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) | 1 in 198 | $0.19 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 192 | $0.18 | 0.0% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 893 | $0.17 | 0.0% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 538 | $0.14 | 0.0% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/m4a4`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=m4a4)

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) [RAVER.](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/RAVER.) $7.21 $0.65 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) [RAVER.](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/RAVER.) $7.21 $4.00 0.55x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC

[M4A4 | Global Offensive (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-field-tested) [RAVER.](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/RAVER.) $7.21 $18.06 2.50x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) [Nonesy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Nonesy) $7.21 $3.77 0.52x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC

[M4A4 | Griffin (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-minimal-wear) [Nonesy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Nonesy) $7.21 $5.90 0.82x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) [Nonesy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Nonesy) $7.21 $9.05 1.26x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC

[M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) [Nonesy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Nonesy) $7.21 $0.63 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC

[M4A4 | Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) [Nonesy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Nonesy) $7.21 $8.73 1.21x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC

[M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) [Nonesy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Nonesy) $7.21 $1.42 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC

[M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) [Nonesy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Nonesy) $7.21 $31.25 4.33x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $7.21 | 91.31% | 148 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $7.21 | 91.61% | 148 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $7.21 | 91.53% | 148 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $7.21 | 91.67% | 148 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $7.21 | 90.81% | 148 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $7.21 | 91.57% | 148 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $7.21 | 90.88% | 148 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $7.21 | 91.19% | 148 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $7.21 | 91.19% | 148 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $7.21 | 91.15% | 148 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $7.21 | 90.87% | 148 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $7.21 | 91.18% | 148 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $7.21 | 91.06% | 148 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $7.21 | 91.39% | 148 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $7.21 | 90.69% | 148 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $7.21 | 91.32% | 148 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $7.21 | 91.17% | 148 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $7.21 | 90.76% | 148 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $7.21 | 90.67% | 148 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $7.21 | 91.43% | 148 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $7.21 | 90.95% | 148 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $7.21 | 91.27% | 148 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $7.21 | 90.87% | 148 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $7.21 | 91.13% | 148 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $7.21 | 91.12% | 148 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $7.21 | 91.13% | 148 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $7.21 | 90.90% | 148 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $7.21 | 91.03% | 148 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $7.21 | 90.94% | 148 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $7.21 | 91.14% | 148 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 8.1% covert 0.9% Covert 0.1% Classified 0.3% mil spec 22.1% restricted 26.6% #eb4b4b 0.0% red 0.1% industrial 12.4% blue 5.3% Ancient 0.2% pink 4.1% Rare 3.1% Mil Spec Grade 0.6% Mythical 0.6% milspec 7.9% violet 1.3% #d32ee6 1.8% Legendary 3.0% light blue 0.5% #87c7ff 0.5% Uncommon 0.1% blueLight 0.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.31 on average: an expected loss of $8.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt