---
title: "Magic case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Magic ($37.04) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.03% from 146 items with odds, observed 83.17% over 181 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magic
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Magic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magic)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Magic

A case on GGDROP (multicases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magic?window=all)

Price · $37.04

Advertised RTP · 92.03% · EV $34.09 from 146 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.17% · 181 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 20 openings · below min

7 days · 82.13% ±20.04 151 openings

30 days · 83.17% ±18.31 181 openings

since tracking started · 83.17% ±18.31 181 openings

8.5% 64.0% 119.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magic?window=24h) | 20 | 63.96% ±55.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magic?window=7d) | 151 | 82.13% ±20.0 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magic) | 181 | 83.17% ±18.3 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magic?window=all) | 181 | 83.17% ±18.3 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 146 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 181 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $1,027 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $1,014 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 5,000 | $728 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $665 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $627 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $584 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $581 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 6,250 | $527 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,556 | $481 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 4,348 | $463 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $425 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 5,556 | $413 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $403 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 4,545 | $393 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $390 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $386 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-flame-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $372 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $366 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $357 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 3,448 | $356 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $353 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 3,125 | $348 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 5,556 | $339 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,556 | $324 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $311 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 1,818 | $277 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $270 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $266 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,053 | $253 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-well-worn) | 1 in 1,923 | $250 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,613 | $241 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $239 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,562 | $232 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,351 | $213 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $206 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,020 | $198 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $197 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,220 | $196 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $196 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 1,695 | $196 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $189 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 1,087 | $189 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 962 | $187 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,167 | $181 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $180 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 637 | $174 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 498 | $148 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 459 | $139 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 420 | $134 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 329 | $133 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 559 | $132 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 862 | $131 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 813 | $130 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 709 | $129 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 980 | $127 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 7,692 | $126 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $125 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 617 | $125 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,408 | $124 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 488 | $116 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 422 | $116 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) | 1 in 529 | $108 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 288 | $107 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-well-worn) | 1 in 524 | $107 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 272 | $98.63 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) | 1 in 355 | $98.54 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-field-tested) | 1 in 298 | $98.13 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 239 | $94.46 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 205 | $93.12 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-well-worn) | 1 in 382 | $90.46 | 0.7% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 240 | $90.46 | 1.1% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 190 | $87.24 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 234 | $75.03 | 0.9% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 271 | $74.53 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 164 | $73.61 | 1.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 158 | $73.35 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 524 | $73.03 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 483 | $71.69 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 339 | $70.42 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 201 | $70.12 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-well-worn) | 1 in 350 | $68.25 | 0.6% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 369 | $66.86 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 394 | $66.53 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-well-worn) | 1 in 532 | $66.30 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 420 | $65.33 | 0.5% | 3 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 433 | $65.33 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 483 | $64.50 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 439 | $64.17 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 662 | $64.14 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 495 | $63.98 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 323 | $63.28 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 277 | $62.78 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 180 | $62.67 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 181 | $59.97 | 1.0% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 158 | $58.97 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 131 | $55.68 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.45× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 94 | $50.38 | 1.6% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.56× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $50.23 | 1.2% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.61× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $48.97 | 1.6% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 99 | $48.45 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 140 | $47.87 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $47.03 | 1.2% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $45.97 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 113 | $44.45 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 96 | $42.74 | 1.3% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.07× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-factory-new) | 1 in 86 | $41.61 | 1.4% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 76 | $39.15 | 1.5% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $38.88 | 1.6% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $38.87 | 1.6% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $37.02 | 1.9% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.28× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 68 | $36.16 | 1.6% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $36.07 | 1.9% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-eye-of-athena-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $35.54 | 2.4% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.22× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $23.84 | 1.8% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $23.79 | 2.1% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $21.37 | 2.4% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $20.83 | 2.8% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $20.79 | 1.1% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.20× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $18.49 | 1.3% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $18.20 | 1.0% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $16.72 | 1.0% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $15.27 | 1.2% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.43× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $13.55 | 0.8% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.34× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $13.53 | 1.0% | 0 | 4.5 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $13.35 | 0.8% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $13.33 | 0.7% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $12.63 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-eye-of-athena-well-worn) | 1 in 73 | $11.66 | 0.5% | 7 | 2.5 | 2.83× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $10.40 | 0.5% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.32× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $10.17 | 0.6% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $9.77 | 0.6% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.63× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $9.06 | 0.5% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $8.61 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $8.23 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $7.48 | 0.4% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 70 | $7.31 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $6.24 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $6.15 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $6.03 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $5.65 | 0.2% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.53× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 106 | $5.38 | 0.1% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.17× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $4.66 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 74 | $4.40 | 0.2% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $4.24 | 0.2% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $4.14 | 0.2% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.47× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $4.10 | 0.2% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.53× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/magic`, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=magic)

[StatTrak™ P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-factory-new) [ksp](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ksp) $37.04 $21.05 0.57x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) [ksp](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/ksp) $37.04 $35.90 0.97x 2026-11-11 11:08 UTC

[StatTrak™ FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) [Amır Gedik](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Am%C4%B1r%20Gedik) $37.04 $16.75 0.45x 2026-11-10 23:23 UTC

[P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-factory-new) [Amır Gedik](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Am%C4%B1r%20Gedik) $37.04 $9.88 0.27x 2026-11-10 23:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-factory-new) [Amır Gedik](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Am%C4%B1r%20Gedik) $37.04 $20.88 0.56x 2026-11-10 23:23 UTC

[SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) [Amır Gedik](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Am%C4%B1r%20Gedik) $37.04 $15.14 0.41x 2026-11-10 23:18 UTC

[SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) [Amır Gedik](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Am%C4%B1r%20Gedik) $37.04 $13.03 0.35x 2026-11-10 23:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Nostalgia (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-nostalgia-factory-new) [Amır Gedik](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Am%C4%B1r%20Gedik) $37.04 $20.88 0.56x 2026-11-10 23:18 UTC

[SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) [Amır Gedik](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Am%C4%B1r%20Gedik) $37.04 $48.24 1.30x 2026-11-10 23:17 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) [Amır Gedik](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Am%C4%B1r%20Gedik) $37.04 $12.71 0.34x 2026-11-10 23:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $37.04 | 92.03% | 146 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $37.04 | 92.05% | 146 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $37.04 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $37.04 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $37.04 | 92.04% | 146 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $37.04 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $37.04 | 92.06% | 146 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $37.04 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $37.04 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $37.04 | 92.03% | 146 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $37.04 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $37.04 | 92.10% | 146 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $37.04 | 92.09% | 146 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $37.04 | 92.08% | 146 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $37.04 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $37.04 | 92.03% | 146 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $37.04 | 92.08% | 146 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $37.04 | 92.04% | 146 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $37.04 | 92.03% | 146 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $37.04 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $37.04 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $37.04 | 92.08% | 146 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $37.04 | 92.08% | 146 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $37.04 | 92.04% | 146 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $37.04 | 92.04% | 146 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $37.04 | 92.03% | 146 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $37.04 | 92.02% | 146 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $37.04 | 92.06% | 146 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $37.04 | 92.00% | 146 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $37.04 | 92.00% | 146 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 15.5% classified 28.0% epic 0.0% restricted 0.2% other 0.0% Mythical 0.0% Ancient 3.7% #eb4b4b 0.1% gold 0.1% Immortal 0.0% covert knife 0.0% #d32ee6 4.5% pink 3.2% Covert 1.4% extraordinary 0.8% red 7.3% rare 0.1% mil spec 5.3% #8847ff 1.4% violet 0.5% sunny 0.5% Rare 8.4% milspec 4.6% Mil Spec Grade 6.5% #4b69ff 2.1% Legendary 5.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.03 on average: an expected loss of $7.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt