---
title: "Magician case on GGDROP: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Magician ($11.99) on GGDROP, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.09% from 35 items with odds, observed 92.92% over 10.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magician
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) / [Magician](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magician)

# [GGDROP](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/ggdrop) · Magician

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magician?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magician?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magician) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magician?window=all)

Price · $11.99

Advertised RTP · 92.09% · EV $11.04 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.92% · 10.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.74% ±5.52 1,227 openings

7 days · 92.90% ±2.03 9,183 openings

30 days · 92.92% ±1.89 10.6K openings

since tracking started · 92.92% ±1.89 10.6K openings

83.5% 89.8% 96.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magician?window=24h) | 1,227 | 89.74% ±5.52 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magician?window=7d) | 9,183 | 92.90% ±2.03 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magician) | 10.6K | 92.92% ±1.89 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/ggdrop/magician?window=all) | 10.6K | 92.92% ±1.89 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,250 | $126 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 439 | $98.67 | 2.0% | 1 | 24.1 | 0.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $84.51 | 0.1% | 7 | 1.5 | 4.72× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 741 | $82.90 | 1.0% | 7 | 14.3 | 0.49× |
| [Sir Bloody Miami Darryl \| The Professionals agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/sir-bloody-miami-darryl-the-professionals) | 1 in 5,263 | $80.32 | 0.1% | 6 | 2.0 | 2.98× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,887 | $75.38 | 0.4% | 18 | 5.6 | 3.21× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $66.78 | 0.1% | 19 | 1.7 | 11.22× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $64.07 | 0.1% | 34 | 1.9 | 17.84× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 138 | $50.05 | 3.3% | 53 | 76.7 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $46.99 | 3.6% | 78 | 89.8 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 131 | $45.55 | 3.1% | 72 | 80.7 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 118 | $43.12 | 3.3% | 86 | 89.4 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $39.70 | 4.1% | 121 | 121.3 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $35.54 | 4.3% | 164 | 141.1 | 1.16× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $35.11 | 4.8% | 140 | 158.5 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $30.25 | 5.0% | 193 | 192.5 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $21.83 | 4.4% | 277 | 234.2 | 1.18× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $20.49 | 4.2% | 306 | 238.1 | 1.29× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $19.56 | 6.1% | 346 | 366.5 | 0.94× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $17.85 | 5.3% | 406 | 350.0 | 1.16× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $14.43 | 4.5% | 323 | 368.1 | 0.88× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $13.59 | 4.5% | 413 | 384.1 | 1.08× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $13.39 | 5.0% | 463 | 436.3 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $9.85 | 4.7% | 542 | 553.6 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $8.27 | 3.4% | 523 | 486.2 | 1.08× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $7.22 | 3.5% | 611 | 567.9 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $5.74 | 3.6% | 571 | 729.8 | 0.78× |
| [Maximus \| Sabre agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/maximus-sabre) | 1 in 17 | $5.49 | 2.9% | 609 | 622.0 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-kintsugi-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $5.41 | 2.6% | 587 | 565.5 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $4.93 | 2.4% | 510 | 557.4 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $4.24 | 1.6% | 401 | 432.9 | 0.93× |
| [AUG \| Lapis Lazuli (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lapis-lazuli-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $3.49 | 1.7% | 515 | 567.8 | 0.91× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Chirp charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-chirp) | 1 in 17 | $2.94 | 1.6% | 629 | 631.9 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $2.07 | 1.3% | 768 | 725.2 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.83 | 1.2% | 786 | 764.7 | 1.03× |

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `ggdrop:api/case/magician`, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=ggdrop&case=magician)

[StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) [Mr.Valeriyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Mr.Valeriyy) $11.99 $1.80 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $11.99 $35.37 2.95x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC

[Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) [Ben İGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Ben%20%C4%B0GA) $11.99 $13.30 1.11x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lapis-lazuli-field-tested) [Garbushka](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Garbushka) $11.99 $3.31 0.28x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-kintsugi-battle-scarred) [Garbushka](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Garbushka) $11.99 $5.50 0.46x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) [Garbushka](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Garbushka) $11.99 $5.72 0.48x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC

[Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) [Garbushka](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Garbushka) $11.99 $13.30 1.11x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) [Garbushka](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Garbushka) $11.99 $2.08 0.17x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lapis-lazuli-field-tested) [SadeceÖlülerGörür](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Sadece%C3%96l%C3%BClerG%C3%B6r%C3%BCr) $11.99 $3.38 0.28x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC

[FAMAS | Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-field-tested) [SadeceÖlülerGörür](https://gambatracker.com/players/ggdrop/Sadece%C3%96l%C3%BClerG%C3%B6r%C3%BCr) $11.99 $8.22 0.69x 2026-11-11 18:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $11.99 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $11.99 | 92.01% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $11.99 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $11.99 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $11.99 | 92.08% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $11.99 | 92.09% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $11.99 | 92.04% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $11.99 | 92.07% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $11.99 | 92.10% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $11.99 | 92.04% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $11.99 | 92.00% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.0% gold 0.2% #eb4b4b 0.0% classified 12.4% master 0.0% covert knife 0.1% covert 4.1% red 0.8% rare 3.1% mil spec 8.4% Mythical 2.2% Legendary 12.9% pink 10.5% restricted 17.2% violet 15.3% #d32ce6 6.0% Rare 6.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.09 on average: an expected loss of $7.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt